Wednesday, September 19, 2018

New York Times Poll: Crow Up 11 Points

If a newly released New York Times poll is accurate, the blue wave could be a tsunami. In the 6th District, the poll has Democratic challenger, Jason Crow, up 11 points over incumbent Republican Mike Coffman, 51 percent to 40 percent.

The Times and Siena College are conducting small sample telephone polls in identified competitive House seats. Its first iteration, conducted the last 10 days, has the Democrats taking the House, gaining about 30 seats or a close election for control.

The Times asks: “Can the battle-tested incumbent survive again?”

Republican Coffman has survived difficult elections, winning his district when it went for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012 and for Hillary Clinton by 34,000 in 2016 (he won by 31,000 votes). So if he is indeed behind by 11 points, the District voters are ignoring his incumbent advantage and voting in a very partisan fashion. This may well be the Trump effect where the President’s low approval rating and aggressive approach to controversial issues is simply impossible for a Republican incumbent to separate from. Trump has a 39 percent approval rating in the District.

The Times lists several polls that have shown Crow ahead by smaller amounts.

Crow’s campaign will be well-funding, and expect both sides to get very negative. A large percentage of voters claim to not be able to rate Crow, even though they indicate they will vote for him as of now.

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