Friday, September 28, 2018

National Polls Switch to Likely Voters; Republicans Still Behind

Typically, reputable national polls switch from registered voters to a likely voter screen. The effect usually aids Republicans because their voters have been more likely to say they will vote. For example, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows a 12-point advantage for Democrats among 900 registered voters (52% to 40%), but a smaller 8-point advantage among likely voters (594) in the generic ballot test (51% to 43%).

Unfortunately for Republicans, they are still behind. As Republican pollster Bill McInturff said: “This [poll] is beyond weak” for Republicans. “Americans are hitting the brakes in a midterm and trying to send a signal they are not satisfied.”

Republican support from women is a disaster. Men prefer Republicans for Congress over Democrats by 3 percentage points (44% to 47%), but women prefer Democrats by 25 percentage points (58% to 33%).

  • September – 12 points, up from 8 points in August with registered voters
  • 59% want a change from Mr. Trump’s direction, including nearly a third of Republicans (In 1994, 62% wanted change from Clinton’s direction; Democrats lost 54 seats)
  • Top issues: economy, health care, corruption and special interests’ control of D.C. Economy: Prefer Republican – 47%, Democrat – 45%. Health care: Prefer Republican – 34%, Democrat – 58%
  • 58% prefer candidates who help Dreamers

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