Colorado
has been moved up two spots in the latest
National Journal ranking of sixteen competitive U.S. Senate races. The
Journal predicts a 5- to 10-seat win for
Republicans. They need six to take control of the Senate. The Udall vs. Gardner
race is now listed 9
th, up from 11
th, largely based on
the equal flow of advertising dollars, recent polls and the fracking debate.
The Republican primary just helped Cory Gardner by handing off the
gubernatorial nomination to establishment representative, Bob Beauprez, with a
reasonably unified party.
Democrats
are not certain to lose six seats however. Early polling from Arkansas,
Louisiana and North Carolina, for example, show endangered Democrats more than
holding their positions.
Although
races can still be decided in the last few weeks (Bennet pulling out a 2010 late
win over Buck), high-profile senate races are increasingly decided before Labor
Day. If a challenger is viable on Labor Day (i.e., a net positive favorability
rating), the incumbent is in serious trouble, which is why there is so much
early negative advertising.
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