It was the heady days of one year ago that President Obama,
fresh from his 4-point national re-election victory and with a 12-point
approval spread, issued an idealist and liberal inaugural speech and aggressive
agenda in his State of the Union.
But in four months, Obama was in political trouble well
before the failed rollout of the ACA in October. By the end of May, his
disapproval exceeded approval, which got much worse by late November, reaching
a 16-point negative spread at its worst (56% disapprove vs. 40% approve).
Recognizing the new reality, the State of the Union is being right sized for
the times.
This is the latest manifestation of second-term hubris. President
Obama, much like President G.W. Bush fresh off his re-election, interpreted he
had a mandate to get some long-term agenda items done: immigration reform, gun
control, climate change, minimum wage increase and stepped-up spending for
infrastructure and education. But by May, all these objectives were lost in a
failed charm offensive with Congress while the budget sequester ended any chance
for more spending. Since the depths of failed ACA rollout in November, there
has been a modest recovery, but Obama is still in negative territory. In fact,
along with Presidents Truman and Bush, Obama begins his sixth year in negative
territory (Truman 36% approve, Bush 39%, Obama 43% – ABC/WSJ).
Strangely, at the very moment Obama will hail going it
alone, Congress has a huge incentive to actually lower the temperature and
accomplish something. Repeated polls now show voters are so disgusted, they may
remove incumbents. That is getting their attention.
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