Voters Moving to Independent Status – Colorado in Lead

One result of political polarization and Washington gridlock appears to be the growth of voters telling pollsters they are independents or, in fact, registering in non-partisan status (non-partisan voters have a variety of labels; e.g., unaffiliated, undeclared, decline to state).

Gary Langer in a December ABC/Washington Post poll shows 37 percent of his national sample as independent and only 32 percent and 23 percent Democrat and Republican, respectively. Similarly, Gallup in a January survey has independents at 42 percent of the electorate – a historical high. Democrats represented 31 percent and Republicans 25 percent of the poll.

The think tank Third Way reported in a December release that since President Obama’s election in 2008, independent voter registration has increased by “11 percent, while registration with parties has fallen slightly.” The largest increase in independent registration was in the Mountain West, with Colorado leading the entire country with a 47 percent surge.

Twenty-seven states have partisan registration. Colorado’s pre-November election registration had unaffiliated voters as the largest bloc of voters at over one million (34%) of the electorate (Democrats were 31% and Republicans 32%).

The increase in independent voters will make elections in Colorado more competitive and volatile.

There is a debate among political scientists if self-declared independents are really independent or if most of them are, in fact, just weak partisans. Our surveys show that most independents indeed have a partisan and a left-right ideological preference. But, their growth since 2008 and recent spike is a reflection of disenchantment with D.C. and the two-party system. And importantly, weak partisans are more subject to cross-pressures from issue and campaign information contrary to their leaning, making them more prone to shifts in their preferences and their passion to vote.

See:
The Buzz: Unaffiliated voter registration surges
The Buzz: Are nominal independents truly independent?
The Buzz: Republicans are in a weak third place in Denver metro area
Third Way: Voters drift from both parties in off-year registration
ABC News: A drop in opposition to Obamacare helps stabilize a struggling presidency
Gallup: Record-high 42% of Americans identify as independents