Bad Year for Economic Determinism

The 2012 election was bad for political science professors and economists who have an academic franchise in predicting presidential elections from unemployment and other economic data. Many predicted Mitt Romney and were wrong.

In Colorado, CU professors Michael Berry and Kenneth Bickers used state-by-state personal income and employment figures among other variables to predict Barack Obama would win 218 Electoral College votes. He won 336.

But, the professors weren’t alone in being off the mark. Romney, his team and a good number of pundits assumed the economy was the issue and Obama would lose.

Although the economy was important, and Romney was judged better at managing it than Obama, for a number of reasons it wasn’t enough.

Why economy didn’t win it for Romney?

• Barely Win It – The exit poll has the economy the number one issue with more than half the voters, but Romney’s advantage is only 4 points over Obama.

• Bush’s Fault – Fifty-three percent of voters blame Obama’s predecessor, President G.W. Bush, for the state of the economy, not Obama.

• Economy Improves – With a stroke of good fortune, the economy in August and September begins to improve enough the public begins to notice. Gallup poll shows that more voters believe they are better (38%) than worse off (34%). A year earlier, Gallup recorded only 29 percent said they were better off and 49 percent said worse. 

        Although the exit poll had more people say things were worse
        off (34%) than better (25%), most people said things were
        about the same, and importantly, Obama won them 58 percent
        to 40 percent.

• Job Approval – From a low of 43 percent approval a year ago, Obama wins on Election Day with 52 percent. He consistently won the empathy contest. People liked Obama more than Romney, and this presidential election was a choice between the two candidates – not just a referendum on the incumbent.