Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Obama Will Have to Choose Ohio or Colorado for Final Target

It is well-established that Colorado, with its 9 electoral votes, is a likely final target for President Obama to assemble his 270 votes.  The western strategy includes Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5).  A recent argument has been made that a more productive strategy would be to target the large states in the mid-west and Atlantic Coast (Florida – 29, Ohio – 18, North Carolina – 15 and Virginia – 13).

William Galston, a researcher with Brookings, argues that Ohio voters are more like the country in general; hence, messages that move presidential approval and re-elect numbers nationally will move Ohio.  By implication, Galston believes that a western strategy depends too much on young voters, minorities and the higher educated.

Although Colorado is demographically different than the country, it tends to be where the swing voters are and, hence, if a campaign and candidate can move the Colorado vote, it can affect the least committed and most fought over voters in every jurisdiction.

Obama and his team won’t adopt a final strategy for many months, so Colorado will be seeing a lot of him in the meantime.

See The New Yorker:  The Eight-State Election

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