Panel: Ukraine Was Wake-up Call to Taiwan and its Allies

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and
Chinese President Xi Jinping | AP

Japanese and American professors on March 23 analyze the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on the policies of the Indo-Pacific and especially what it means for Taiwan.

Key Points

From March 23 Webinar: Taiwan, Japan and U.S. Relations After Ukraine

• The Ukraine invasion is a wake-up call to the Taiwanese people. Polls in December showed 40 percent of Taiwan’s people would pick up weapons if invaded. Now it’s at 74 percent.
• Russia made several serious mistakes with the Ukraine invasion and Beijing is observing those. If Beijing considers invading Taiwan, it will better mobilize cyber warfare and shorten the time it takes to invade and occupy Taiwan. Otherwise, the international community will come together to support Taiwan.
• China initially used what it called a “peaceful offensive” against Taiwan to keep the two economies intertwined. Since Xi has been president, he considers a divided nation unacceptable. Xi is now willing to sacrifice economic interests for sovereignty. Adm. Philip Davidson, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predicts a Taiwan invasion “in the next 6 years.” 
• Japan’s strategic thinking on Taiwan has shifted to a much higher level of attention in recent years. It is less than 100 miles from Japan’s southern most island. Taiwan’s economy and the Indo-Pacific waterway are critical to Japan. Also, China’s official statements and behavior toward Taiwan are now more aggressive and urgent.
• The U.S.-Taiwan relationship has increased in the last decade. While it has never said it would come to Taiwan’s rescue, the U.S. has sold weapons to Taiwan for its defense. Polls show 52 percent of the U.S. public believes we should defend Taiwan. If China takes military action, it has to assume the U.S. will be involved. China isn’t ready to fight the U.S., just as the U.S. doesn’t want to fight China. 

In a panel moderated by Professor Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center, the participants were: 

• Koji Murata – Professor, Doshisha University, Kyoto
• Suisheng Zhao – Professor, Korbel School Director of the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation
• Floyd Ciruli – Professor, Korbel School Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver and the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, sponsored the event.

U.S. Image Improves in NATO Countries

Recent polls show the image of U.S. leadership in Europe has improved since the Trump presidency. It still has a high disapproval rating in several key countries, such as the UK (52% disapproval), Germany (55%) and France (53%). However, there was a 20 percent jump in approval from the end of 2020 to mid-2021 in the 20 of 27 NATO members surveyed both years.

Read The Buzz: U.S. Unity on Russia as Threat. Divisions on NATO.

Panel: U.S., Japan and South Korea roles in Maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shakes hands with
Chinese President Xi Jinping during Xi's visit in Pyongyang,
June 2019 | Photo: KCNA / via Reuters

Japanese and American professors on March 16 discussed the tensions and challenges arising in the Indo-Pacific region, focused on South Korea and its new conservative government and the nuclear ambition of North Korea.

Key Points

From March 16 Webinar: U.S., Japan and South Korea roles in Maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

• The invasion of Ukraine is a shock – even in Asia. A permanent member of the UN Security Council just invaded its neighbor with no provocation. How will the Security Council operate when one member with veto status acted with such aggression? We need to think outside the box because they box is no longer there.
• Democracies all have a role to play and an important role is to put aside small differences and realize that this attack on Ukraine is an attack on us all.
• China doesn’t want to be seen as a criminal. We have to somehow engage China.
• One of the unintended consequences of Mr. Putin’s gross mistake is that the U.S. and Europeans have never felt so close together. It will be replicated in other parts of the world – including with the Republic of Korea and Japan. 
• With the sheer number, militarily, of the South Koreans, the Japanese and the Americans, we outnumber the Chinese PLA [People’s Liberation Army]. With South Korea, Japan and the U.S. can safely engage with the Chinese and defend the international order.
• Will South Korea’s incoming president Yoon manage the country’s challenges in an a la carte fashion, or play a leading role in addressing Indo-Pacific issues? The expectation is that Yoon will try to strengthen ties with Japan, but the domestic audience in both countries remains strongly resistant to mending the relationship.

In a panel moderated by Professor Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center, the participants were: 

• Nobukatsu Kanehara – Senior Advisor to the Asia Group, Tokyo; Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary to Prime Minister Abe; Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Secretariat
• Junya Nishino – Professor, Director of Center for Contemporary Korean Studies, Keio University
• Christopher Hill – Newly confirmed ambassador to Serbia, former ambassador to Korea, head of U.S. Delegation to Six-Party Talks

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Consulate-General of Japan, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, sponsored the event.

Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Revives NATO

NATO criticism has receded and support increased across Europe. A March 20, 2022 YouGov survey reported by the Economist shows a sharp increase in support for NATO compared to March 2019. In 2019, during the Trump administration, NATO was frequently the target of his criticism as a financial burden of questionable worth protecting freeloading countries. Europeans also expressed some concern, and President Macron, never a big advocate, declared NATO experiencing “brain death” in terms of its purpose. He has shifted his position recently. 

NATO support in France, although lower than other European countries (47%), grew from 39 percent to 47 percent in the last 2 years (2020-21). Germany’s government has also changed its position on military spending. The German public at 64 percent support for NATO gained 30 points since 2019. Another German poll just conducted showed 53 percent of the public support Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s increase of $110 billion for defense and NATO spending goal of 2 percent of GDP.

The Russian invasion has focused public opinion on security and NATO has been the winner.

Read The Buzz: U.S. Unity on Russia as Threat. Divisions on NATO.

Madeleine Albright – Advocate for DU

(L to R) Floyd Ciruli, John Kerry and Madeleine Albright

Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who spent much of her childhood in Denver and on the University of Denver campus with her parents, just passed away. Her father, Josef, was the first dean of the international relations school, which was later named for him, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. His daughter became the first woman Secretary of State and one of his top students became the first African-American Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice.

In recent years, Madeleine was frequently on campus for events, always interacting with students. In 2018, she joined a panel I moderated with her fellow former Secretary of State John Kerry for an hour-long panel on foreign policy and American politics. She had just released her book, “Fascism: A Warning,” a timely read for today. As a European refugee, she took special interest in European affairs and was an indefatigable defender of democracy as a diplomat, a teacher and an advocate.

(L to R) DU Chancellor Chopp, Floyd Ciruli,
Madeleine Albright and John Kerry

See The Buzz: DU Hosts the Secretaries of State

Americans Want Tougher Response to Putin

Several new polls show the U.S. public is shifting toward a tougher response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nightly media coverage of the physical damage, loss of life and millions of refugees are putting pressure on President Biden and American policymakers to implement more policies to oppose the invasion. But, they are also highly supportive of what is being done. Sanctions have 68 percent approval and banning Russian oil 70 percent.

AP-NORC Poll

Source: AP-NORC, March 17-21, 2022

Format: Crossley Center 2022

See AP-NORC poll here

China-Russia Friendship – Any Limits?

The key points made by experts at the March 10, 2022 Crossley Center panel on China-Russia Friendship – Any Limits?. Although they see some important short-term objectives for China from the relationship with Russia, they see many limits, especially highlighted by the invasion of Ukraine.

Key Points
From March 10 Webinar: China-Russia Friendship – Any Limits? 

• The Indo-Pacific region has acted more in sync with Europe regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine compared to the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 – a courageous decision for Japan who shares a border with Russia and is heavily dependent on Russian imports.
• While China has agreed to align with Russia to counter economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, China abstained in the United Nations vote condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This, together with Xi’s virtual meetings with Germany’s chancellor and France’s president to find a solution to the war, signal that China hasn’t entirely sided with Russia.
• Russia and China don’t have shared values, but do have shared threats by the U.S. as they both attempt to restore their past glory as empires.
• Japan’s free and open Indo-Pacific policy is inclusive, not exclusive. It has agreed to cooperate with China’s Belt and Road initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. 
• North Korea’s push to develop nuclear missiles is reinforced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russian aggression against Ukraine would not have happened if Ukraine had nuclear weapons.
• Neither Japanese Prime Minister Kishida nor U.S. President Biden are hawkish, but neither are doves. Prime Minister Kishida’s foreign policy is based on realism. He has to consider relationships with neighboring China, North Korea and Russia. The strategy is to work with allies and like-minded countries to face challenges.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put China in a bad diplomatic situation. The war will damage China’s economic interests, and the rallying of countries around the world against Russia has given China pause. China could use the crisis as an opportunity to position itself as a responsible member of the international community. 

The panel was moderated by Professor Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center. 

• Akiko Fukushima – Senior Fellow of Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
• Tsuneo Watanabe – Senior Fellow of Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• Suisheng Zhao – Professor, Director of the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver and the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, sponsored the event.