Gardner Needed That

It was a good week for Cory Gardner. First, a poll was reported that had him closing the gap with John Hickenlooper. And then, Donald Trump touched the third nail of American politics – cancelling an election – which Gardner was able to quickly condemn. The seriousness of Trump’s transgression was reflected in the speed it was rejected by even the cautious Mitch McConnell and usually supportive Wall Street Editorial Board.

Read The Buzz:
Can Trump Hold the Line?

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (L) and Sen. Corey Gardner
walk to the Senate Chamber, July 27, 2017 | Cliff Owen/AP

Will the Presidential Race Tighten?

The President and his campaign are attempting to adjust to the reality of nearly two months of polls – both national and battleground – that show him losing well beyond Hillary Clinton’s polls at the same time in 2016 and upwards of twice the margin of error.

President Trump has been a few points behind Joe Biden since early in the year, but it was after Memorial Day that the spread expanded, settling at 8 points on June 17. It rose to 10 and is currently at 8. Trump remains highly unpopular, with a 43 percent approval and a negative 55 percent (12% deficit). His party is down 9 points in the generic ballot test and only 23 percent of the public believe the country is moving in the right direction.

But, will the polls tighten? Yes, for several reasons:

• After Labor Day, all pollsters shift to likely voters because attention to politics ramps up and registered voters are more likely to know if they will vote. This should help Republicans since historically likely voters have tended to be older, higher social economic status.
• Trump, in an effort to close the gap, is ramping up his social media and traditional campaign advertising with an emphasis on cultural issues, and is targeting his voters, including identified undecided and weakly committed. Also, he is aiming to persuade people who only occasionally or seldom vote.

Could Trump Win?

No, not with these numbers, but many things could happen in the last 95 days. Biden has kept a low-profile, but soon will decide a vice president, direct a virtual convention and debate. All of the activities have possibilities of mistakes.

Finally, there’s the completely unexpected: the Comey, WikiLeaks, Access Hollywood type of event that caused a major turbulence in 2016.

So hang on. The polls may be correct today, but they can and are likely to change, especially in a year where a pandemic and George Floyd-type of events dominate and so many historic political and presidential norms have been broken.

Can Trump Hold the Line?

The Buzz regularly reports the political numbers. The table below has been updated monthly starting in April.

President Trump is aware his biggest problem is that his massive national polling deficit has spread to battlegrounds states where the vote is closer, but still significantly in Joe Biden’s favor. Republicans are in serious danger of losing the Senate in states where Trump is behind Biden, such as Arizona, North Carolina and Maine. Even until recently, seats thought safe are in play, such as Montana and Iowa.

RealClearPolitics currently rates the Senate with leaning and secure states as: 46 Democrats, 47 GOP and 7 toss-ups. When they distribute the toss-up seats by the available polls, the result is 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans, a source of concern for Mitch McConnell and the Republican majority.

As President Trump’s national and especially battleground state polling position has declined, a critical question becomes: Can he hold Republicans in line? He knows that respect or friendship for him among Republican colleagues is thin, but even among the most loyal, political survival is foremost and senators, governors and representatives are going to start looking for some separation.

The President hopes his numbers improve to reassure nervous colleagues. He has attempted some adjustments in his behavior related to the pandemic, changed campaign managers and dramatically stepped up campaign advertising, but there’s no relief in sight yet.

Trump Losing the Economy

Up until the last month, Donald Trump maintained a slight advantage in public approval in handling the economy. But, it has slipped away, and RealClearPolitics now, in its aggregate poll, has Trump’s approval as 48 percent to 48 percent disapproval.

His problem is complicated by the negative rating in handling the virus, which RealClearPolitics places at 39 percent approval to 59 percent disapproval, or a negative 20 points. As recently expressed in the Wall Street Journal, there are “doubts about a growing economy and recovery due to the uneven public health response.” The Federal Reserve, for example, sees a deeper downturn and more difficult recovery unless there is more effective action.

What Trump has never understood, and it has cost him much public support, is the relationship between the economy and public health. His distrust of government and skepticism of science have been major handicaps in his ability to deal with a recession induced by a pandemic.

Landslide: For Trump or Against Trump?

Although it is hard to believe now, earlier in the year supporters of Donald Trump thought he would win easily and possibly by a blowout. Even after the pandemic started, many kept the faith, believing handling COVID-19 well was an opportunity.

There are presidents in traumatic times who won by 20 points in popular vote and 200 or more electoral votes. Since Roosevelt, the biggest winners trying for reelection were Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 after the Kennedy assassination, Richard Nixon in 1972 in the tensions between the anti-war movement and Silent majority, and Ronald Reagan in 1984 as America emerged from a recession into “Morning in America.”

Looking back, these presidents’ opponents mostly appear hapless and off-key and choice is often an important element of the voters’ decision, but the economic and political context of these elections was even more decisive. In the three landslide elections listed below, only one challenger was above 50 electoral votes and they averaged less than 40 percent of the popular vote (see table below).

However, what President Trump’s team might consider is that he could get the challenger’s popular vote and dramatically fewer electoral votes than Hillary Clinton received in 2016 (227 electoral votes).

Public Skeptical Schools Should Reopen

Two new polls show the public much more skeptical about reopening schools than President Trump.

Only 8 percent of Americans say schools should open as usual for in-person instruction, the position of the incredibly obtuse Orange County School Board. Far more (77%) believe they should either not reopen (31%) or only with major adjustments (46%). Opinion reflects the 80 percent of the public who are very concerned that reopening schools will cause a major surge in the virus. Even 63 percent of Republicans register the same level of concern (AP/NORC poll).

When given a choice in a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll between reopening schools now to get people back to work and children in classrooms or wait until the virus contagion is low as possible, safety over back to work carried the day 63 percent to 32 percent.

Trump’s position, which is framed on the needs of the economy with little or no emphasis on safety, is shared by only about a fifth of the public, although about half of Republicans. A third of the public doesn’t want to reopen and presently prefers remote learning, but the majority position supports reopening with safety conditions, like masks and social distancing, along with remote learning options where needed or preferred by parents.

Lousy Timing

Thursday was a new low point for Donald Trump’s campaign. The President had to bow to reality – a new strategy – and cancel his long-sought massive re-nomination rally, most recently relocated in what was more politically friendly Florida.

The admission of defeat was accompanied by a spate of new polls that showed key battleground states were slipping away from Trump, including his home state Florida. In Michigan, Trump is down 9, Minnesota down 13 and Pennsylvania down 11 points. In the Fox polls, Trump is running behind his 2016 numbers and his current job approval numbers.

The Florida poll from Quinnipiac is especially ominous given the President just had to bail out of his convention due to the surge in the COVID-19 virus and the state is a must-win for Trump’s reelection. He is behind Joe Biden 13 points. Most Floridians also believe Governor DeSantis opened the state too quickly (61%) and that the virus is now out of control (76%).

Quinnipiac just published a Texas poll that showed the presidential race within one point.