Will Hickenlooper Run for Senate?

John Hickenlooper doesn’t want to run for U.S. Senate, and it wouldn’t be as easy to win as the recent PPP poll, which claimed he’d start with more than 4 out of 10 of the state’s Democrats for him (44%).

What the poll mostly affirmed is that name identification is an advantage early in primaries, the race is wide open and substantial numbers of Democrats’ first goal is to find a winner. But, does that suggest Hickenlooper would find the race easy to enter?

• As I have blogged, top Democratic senate candidates have collectively raised three times what Hickenlooper raised in his presidential race since January ($6 million to $2 million).
• Consider the list, which of the top candidates will quit – probably none.
• Hickenlooper’s constituency is older, white and moderate – an important group in the Democratic Party, but hardly dominant. (The Joe Biden constituency. In fact, Biden leads Colorado’s presidential primary with 22%; Hickenlooper was tied for 5th with 7%.)

Hickenlooper has stated he would not enter the primary. If he did, he would be the frontrunner and likely raise more money than in his presidential bid. But, it will be a fight. The poll did reinforce that Hickenlooper is not a serious presidential candidate as of now in Colorado and the Colorado Democratic Senate nomination is wide open.

Proposition CC – An Orphan

The Democrats’ effort to overturn the TABOR tax limitation restrictions has been an orphan. The legislative leadership, with Governor Polis’ support, placed on the ballot a permanent time out of TABOR requirements to return state revenue over a certain population and inflation limit – state ballot referendum Proposition CC. The Denver Post reports advocates, such as Speaker of the House KC Becker and the local government, business interests and liberal think tank and advocacy groups that testified in favor, have abandoned it as of the end of July.

Opponents, including most of the state’s establishment Republican Party, are opposing it. Proposition CC may be the first casualty as Democrats look to bail out of some ill-prepared ideas.

Money Floods into Senate Race

Both small and large donations are flowing into Colorado Democrats’ winnable U.S. Senate race. Expect a lot more. Incumbent Senator Cory Gardner raised more than $2 million, but the Democratic field more than doubled that in total.

Gardner starts in a strong fundraising position with nearly $5 million in the bank, but Democrats are raising both large contributions, especially Mike Johnston and Dan Baer, and small contributions led by Andrew Romanoff. A recent poll (Keating) has Romanoff in the lead and Johnston third after rumored candidate and newly elected Secretary of State, Jena Griswold. An unreleased Public Policy Poll reported John Hickenlooper would get 44 percent, with Romanoff in a trailing second. The complete poll was not released and it is unclear who authorized the poll.

Cory Gardner and the 2020 Presidential Election

Senator Cory Gardner has a major challenge managing the circumstance of his 2020 reelection. His close victory in 2014 was the product of a good Republican year (they took control of the Senate) and a well-executed campaign against what appeared a lethargic incumbent beset by interest groups determined to dominate his messaging. Gardner may get another break this year as a wide open Democratic primary may damage the eventual nominee, mirroring the national party nomination contest by the tendency of drifting too far to the left.

But, Gardner faces some challenges not present in 2014, namely Donald Trump. Trump lost Colorado to Hillary Clinton by 5 points, the Democrats swept the 2018 midterms in Colorado from top-of-the-ticket to local sheriffs mostly criticizing Trump, and the latest polls show Trump below his not very high national approval rating (43% nationally, 42% Colorado). Gardner spends a significant amount of political energy oscillating between supporting the Republican President, such as his endorsement of Trump’s re-election, and separating himself from Trump, most recently concerning tweets on “the squad.”

The difficult specific conditions of the 2020 election are:

• Record turnout. The 2018 midterms produced a historic number of Democrat and Democratic-leaning unaffiliated voters. They will be back. Both parties will be highly motivated and fully mobilized. Expect record turnout (2.78 million in 2016, 2.52 million in 2018).
• Party-line voting. Colorado was for years famous for ticket-splitters and swing voters. No more. Voters increasingly line up with their partisan affiliation (6th District: Mike Coffman – 43%, Trump 41%; Jason Crow 54%, Clinton 50%). Democrats have an advantage today in registration (49,000 more Democrats than Republicans, 307,000 more unaffiliated than Republicans). It’s unaffiliated voters that trended toward the Democrats by about 60 percent in 2018 according to polls.
• Negative partisanship. It’s hard to appeal to moderates in either party as voters are more anti the other side than for their side. Negative partisanship – the new term for it – drives voting, not party loyalty. It’s being against what the other party stands for or its most prominent leader that is the primary motivator. Gardner’s, like Mike Coffman’s, effort to triangulate the Colorado electorate is a very difficult task today.

Sen. Cory Gardner speaks at the Western Conservative
 Summit, July 12, 2019 | Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Hickenlooper and Bennet Make It, But it may be a Last Chance - KOA

In a drive-time KOA interview, Marty Lentz asked if John Hickenlooper, with only “one” percent in the polls and little money left in the bank, was running out of time.

Yes. Unless something changes dramatically, this is likely the end of Hickenlooper’s national run. And, his challenges are formidable. The 10-person debate nights will be packed with candidates struggling for their moment. As the June debate demonstrated, only a couple of stars emerged from the debates and they tended to be dominated by the early frontrunners: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren.

Hickenlooper’s first night has Bernie Sanders and Warren, who will no doubt command attention, and Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke will be looking for their own breakouts. Hickenlooper will be standing near Montana Governor Steve Bullock, a new entrant who will get noticed just by being new.

John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet

Michael Bennet, who had a better June debate than Hickenlooper and is well liked by the pundit and commentary class (See George Will’s endorsement), is in the first night’s show that will feature some version of a rematch between Biden and Harris as Cory Booker and Julián Castro fight for a notice. Bennet is on the far left edge of the stage, opposite Mayor Bill de Blasio – it might be a good firing position.

April Zesbaugh asked if Colorado’s candidates being on separate nights was an advantage.

I think so. They are both moderates, but with very separate messages, and some independent space is no doubt welcome by both. Hickenlooper especially didn’t appreciate being described as coming in second to Bennet last time.

Possibly the biggest challenge for both candidates is that one powerful storyline framing this debate is who quits. Pundits and pols are looking for who leaves and how soon. Most believe there should be no more than ten for the September debate and, as of now, only the top six in the polls qualify. When will Tim Ryan, John Delaney and possibly Hickenlooper get out will be the question asked repeatedly.

National Democratic Party Divisions Hit Colorado

On July 17, the U.S. House of Representatives took its first impeachment vote against President Donald Trump. The House Democratic leadership opposed the resolution and it was tabled 332 to 95 (194 Republicans with 137 Democrats), but Democrats split 137 against to 95 in favor, or 41 percent of Democrats defying their leadership.

Colorado’s Democratic delegation split in half, with suburban congresspersons Ed Perlmutter and Jason Crow voting against, and Denver and Boulder congresspersons Diana DeGette and Joe Neguse, respectively, supporting the impeachment resolution. All three Colorado Republicans voted to table the resolution; i.e., against it.

Perlmutter resisted Nancy Pelosi’s return to leadership, but backed her in this vote. DeGette, who is a part of leadership as a subcommittee chair, opposed her. But, DeGette has a primary opponent from the left – Crisanta Duran.

Cory Garner and the BLM

In a major coup, Senator Cory Gardner got the federal government to move one of its agencies to the West. The City of Grand Junction will now become the home of the headquarters of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The BLM manages huge acreage of federal land, mostly in the West, including Colorado. About a third of Colorado’s land is owned by the U.S. Forest Service and the BLM.

For Gardner, it demonstrates one of a strong argument for his re-election – an incumbent in the party of the president. Gardner also has the advantage of being in the majority party. Senator Bennet pitched in to support the BLM move, but, of course, was a voice in the political wilderness.

Sen. Cory Gardner | Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images