Rocky Mountain Debate Revives Republican Race

The Republicans have a new enemy. Actually, it’s an old enemy revisited – the mainstream media. CNBC’s poor debate performance became the main story from the Colorado debate. And, the Republican presidential field relished bashing it. They gained points with Republicans and even regular viewers around the country.

Jeb Bush (L) and Marco Rubio at Republican debate in Boulder

Photo: AP/Mark J. Terrill

In spite the CNBC moderators being a distraction, the candidates appeared relaxed, competent with the subject matter, and willing to mix it up with each other and the moderators.

After two weeks of stories contrasting the Republican disarray with Hillary Clinton’s inexorable march to the nomination after a good debate performance, Biden not running and the unharmed Benghazi testimony, this debate shifted the narrative to the Republican race that still has surprises and many talented players. As Valerie Richardson reported in the Washington Times (CNBC Debate Fires Up Republican Base Over Media Bias, 10-30-15):

[Republicans] have been down because the narrative over the last two weeks has been, ‘The Democrats have their nominee, she did well before the Benghazi committee, she did well in her debate, and the Republicans are in chaos,’” said Denver-based political analyst Floyd Ciruli.

“That was essentially the narrative, and last night changed that,” he said. “You saw a little revival here.”

It’s not clear the field will be much affected. We’ll have to wait for polls, but there were winners and losers.

There is slightly over three months until voting in Iowa. Still time for lots of surprise, but the Rocky Mountain debate has given the party some new energy and new soundbites to mull.

9KUSA: Balance of Power – Jefferson County Recall Election

Photo: 9News

The million-dollar election battle in the Jefferson County School District has the attention of local and national Democrats, their labor allies, Republicans and conservative super PACs. Brandon Rittiman hosted a Balance of Power session with 9 News education specialist Nelson Garcia.

Some observations on the election:

• Jefferson County is a battleground for suburban education reform in the county. Clearly, opponents of the type of change promoted by the new conservative board were so concerned about losing control of the school district, they mounted an unprecedented recall election. They have constructed a slate of five candidates to take total control of the district.
• Douglas County School District coming under the control of conservatives and reformers with charter schools, not recognizing the teachers union contract and vouchers (now in court ordered abeyance), helped motivate the Jefferson County strategy. After a major 2013 effort to retake control in Douglas County failed, the Jeffco parent and union activists decided to not wait for re-election but use a recall.
• Money is pouring into the race from labor and local liberal allies and national conservative groups, including the PAC run by the Koch Brothers.
• This is the third school district where massive amounts of money is weighting in for essentially non-paid school board positions. Denver started the battle when local reform business groups and liberals dissatisfied with the pace of improvements took over the board to institute performance pay (although 90% of teachers get the raises), charter schools (unions really dislike alternatives to their control) and higher standards. Douglas became Colorado’s first wealthy suburban Republican county to see a reform drive from the right. Now Jefferson County, one of Colorado’s swing political counties (leaning slightly Democratic in statewide elections) is the center of the fight.
• Schools are very big business in the suburbs. Upwards of 10 percent of voters say they or their families work in the public school system, Schools are the largest employer, paying top government salaries with lots of benefits and job protection. Jefferson County School District is the second largest in the state, just behind Denver.
• The pro recall forces are assumed to have the election advantage.

See:
9News: JeffCo recall gets underway
CPR: JeffCo recall election spending could be over $1 million
Denver Post: Jeffco recall supporters turn in more than 30,000 signatures
Chalkbeat Colorado: Why the tug-of-war for Jefferson County’s school board isn’t just about local classrooms
Chalkbeat Colorado: These three Jefferson County residents want to be your next school board majority
Chalkbeat Colorado: Organizers say they have double the signatures necessary for a Jeffco school board recall
Complete Colorado: 9News segment: Recall is about union control, power

Migration Starts Moving European Politics

After an initial period of acquiesce and even welcoming, the massive and seemingly unstoppable wave of refugees from the Middle East, Afghanistan and North Africa is producing political backlash in Europe.

Angela Merkel, the popular German chancellor, has lost 10 points from her stellar 65 percent approval rating in the last month. Her initial open door policy is being overwhelmed by 10,000 migrants a day entering Germany and her Christian Democrat Union Party, at least at the grassroots, is in revolt.

Merkel is not alone in feeling the backlash as other European governments are seeing a rise in anti-migrant politics.

A recently published global survey conducted by Gallup shows that about a third of the public opinion in the nations of the world are in favor of decreasing immigration in their country. More than half of the public in European nations are in favor. In fact, Europe is more resistant to immigrants than North America.

Excerpt from executive summary of global survey on immigration:

European residents appear to be, on average, the most negative globally towards immigration, with the majority believing immigration levels should be decreased. However, there is a sharp divergence in opinions among residents in Northern and Southern Europe. The majority of adults in Northern European countries – except for those in the United Kingdom – would like immigration levels to either stay the same or increase, while most residents in Southern European countries would prefer to have lower levels of immigration to their countries. More broadly, residents in less than half of the 40 countries in the larger European region are more likely to favour decreased immigration levels than the same or higher levels.

See:
Business Insider; This report proves that Britain is overwhelmingly anti-immigration and it could prompt Brexit
Telegraph: German MPs ‘drawing up plans’ to close borders in challenge to Merkel’s refugee policy
Xinhuanet: Anti-immigrant Pegida supports, opponents rally in Dresden
New York Times: Pressure grows on Merkel as strain from refugees increases
Washington Post: Behind Sweden’s warm welcome for refugees, a backlash is brewing
Washington Post: Think the United States is anti-immigration? It has nothing on Europe.
Breitbart: Financial Times: The end of the Merkel era is within sight
The Guardian: The observer view Europe’s lurch to the right

Is Crime Up?

Gallup reports (Oct. 22, 2015) that Americans’ perception of the level of crime is up. Seventy percent of Americans say crime is up, a seven point increase in twelve months.

Gallup points out that public perception often doesn’t track crime statistics and is affected by gender (women tend to perceive crime rates higher) and partisanship (i.e., which party controls the White House). But, a Gallup analyst (Justin McCarthy) speculates it’s related to high-profile news reports of police shootings.

A different slant in this view was FBI director James Comey’s statement that highly publicized incidents of alleged police misconduct have led some officers to be less aggressive and a subsequent increase in the level of criminal activity. Other factors he cited were early releases of criminals from prison and cheaper street drug prices. President Obama and the White House were quick to downplay the “Ferguson effect” as unproven.

But the political implications for Democrats running for office, from local DAs to Hillary Clinton, have not been missed by the observations.

Local Denver DA candidates are dealing with media reports and activists’ claims concerning police misconduct. How far toward the activists’ position do they go in an effort to capture liberal voters before they and their party become seen as anti-police, generating potential backlash? And more importantly, how far to the left does Hillary Clinton go in her anti-gun, early release and Black Lives Matter rhetoric and policies before she undoes her husband Bill’s efforts in the mid-nineties to shake off the Democratic Party’s “weak on crime” image bequeathed on Democrats from Nixon and Reagan eras.

See:
New York Times: F.B.I. chief links scrutiny of police with rise in violent crime
CNN: FBI chief tries to deal with the ‘Ferguson effect’
New York Post: Obama fuels the flames of the anti-cop movement
Gallup: Despite criticism, NRA still enjoys majority support in U.S.

NRA and Planned Parenthood – Two Polarizing Organizations, But Both have Public Support

After being neglected in several presidential elections, Hillary Clinton has revived Democrats’ hostility toward guns and launched a full-scale war on the NRA. Equally passionate, the Freedom Caucus is prepared to shut down the federal government to defund Planned Parenthood. In spite of these power enemies, both organizations have public support, which is why the respective anti-gun and anti-abortion strategies are fraught with political peril.

NRA
Gallup reports that 58 percent of the American people have a favorable view of the NRA, including a record 26 percent with a “very favorable” rating. The public values the Second Amendment and see much of the gun safety and sport shooting aspects of the NRA as positive.

Of course, liberals (30% favorable) and conservatives (77% favorable) have different views as do gun owners (78% favorable) and non-gun owners (20% favorable). And, the public is closely divided on wanting new gun regulations, with 46 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed (ABC News/Washington Post 2015).

Planned Parenthood
In spite of controversy around Planned Parenthood’s abortion service and aggressive political action activity, Americans still perceive the organization favorably. Its women’s health programs, cancer screening and reproductive services for the disadvantaged are valued and the organization has a 59 percent favorable rating.

There is little support for a government shutdown over the issue (19% favor shutdown, 29% for spending cutoff – Suffolk University/USA Today 2015).  The country is slightly more pro-choice (49%) than pro-life (44%), but the difference has been close for many years (Gallup 2015).

Canada Elects Hope and Change

In a turn to the left, Canadian voters handed a landslide to a legacy candidate, Justin Trudeau. Late polls showed a Liberal Party win, but the final result was well outside the expected margin (17% possible to 34% result). His party received an absolute majority of 184 seats in a parliament that needs 170 to control.

Pierre Trudeau, Justin’s father, served as prime minister for 15 years from 1968 (the Nixon election) to 1984 (the Reagan re-election), with one short break. Justin delivered his father’s eulogy in 2000 and started the talk of his possible career in politics.

Justin Trudeau

Photo: Andrew Vaughan/Canadian Press

On election night, Trudeau announced Liberals had beaten fear with hope, and 70 percent of Canadians had told pollsters they wanted change.

Justin’s Liberal Agenda

• Legalize marijuana (use Colorado’s model)
• Raise taxes on the 1%, lower on middle class
• Climate change policy in 90 days after Paris summit
• Funds and rights for indigenous people

Canadian campaigns are brief, but intense – a little over two months (78 days) with five debates. Conservative Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, saw the difficult re-election slip away at the end as the forces of change and liberalism consolidated behind the Liberal Party and Trudeau.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll Claims Obama’s Approval Rating Up

In a gravity defying movement, just as the president appears to be losing to the autocratic of the decade, the Napoleon of the Urals, Gary Langer, the pollster for ABC News and the Washington Post, claims President Obamahas just gained six percentage points of approval since July and has hit 51 percent.  The last time the President was in positive approval territory in an ABC News/Washington Post poll was in May 2013, three months after his re-election inaugural.

His RealClearPolitics average is still at 45 percent, reflecting the average of the most recent polls. Although, it is an improvement from an August 23 low of 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval.

Langer attributes the improvement to the economy, although he uses the phrase “likely boosted by the economy,” which means good guess, but no real evidence in this poll.

A 51 percent approval is good news for Democrats running for the senate and other offices next year and especially welcome by Clinton supporters.  Forty-five percent was on the cusp of being a drag on the ticket, but over 50 percent presidential approval helps.