The western U.S. has some of the most interesting midterm elections in the country. In December 2010, the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research holds an annual conference where the nation’s best pollsters gather to dissect the November election.
This year, along with panels on Colorado, Nevada, California and other competitive elections, the Tea Party movement, immigration and gay rights will be discussed.
Click here for the latest PAPOR newsletter.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Monday, August 23, 2010
Test Run for DNC Machine
The Obama administration, concerned that November is heading for a major political blowout, has invested millions in re-applying and tuning up the 2008 voter ID and turnout machine. The operation has $50 million and Obama’s top campaign operator, David Plouffe, managing it. The whipping Michael Bennet gave Andrew Romanoff’s campaign in the August 2010 primary was the machine’s first successful outing. An expected close race became a 28,000-vote, 8 percentage point blow-out that Channel 9 KUSA was able to call by 8:30 pm.
The DNC voting machine helped beat Romanoff in nearly all large counties and crushed him in many small counties where mail-in ballot chasing techniques can be most economically and effectively applied. Bennet beat Romanoff by 60 percent or more in Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Delta, Garfield, Las Plata, Montezuma, Phillips, Rio Grande, Sedgwick and Washington counties.
Of course, Bennet’s spending and efforts were substantial, but the campaign was in panic the last two weeks until the DNC resources begun to bear fruit with high rates of turnout of new primary voters, often in Colorado’s isolated small communities.
U.S. Senator Mark Udall’s help was also evident in many of the mountain areas where his environmental credentials are strong. Bennet won, for example, San Miguel (Telluride) – 65%, Pitkin (Aspen) – 74% and Eagle (Vail) – 63%.
Expect to see the DNC machine this fall. Republicans may have enthusiasm and issues, but they still do not appear to have caught up with the Obama campaign’s technical sophistication.
The DNC voting machine helped beat Romanoff in nearly all large counties and crushed him in many small counties where mail-in ballot chasing techniques can be most economically and effectively applied. Bennet beat Romanoff by 60 percent or more in Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Delta, Garfield, Las Plata, Montezuma, Phillips, Rio Grande, Sedgwick and Washington counties.
U.S. Senator Mark Udall’s help was also evident in many of the mountain areas where his environmental credentials are strong. Bennet won, for example, San Miguel (Telluride) – 65%, Pitkin (Aspen) – 74% and Eagle (Vail) – 63%.
Expect to see the DNC machine this fall. Republicans may have enthusiasm and issues, but they still do not appear to have caught up with the Obama campaign’s technical sophistication.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Hickenlooper Starts His Campaign
John Hickenlooper starts his media campaign in a shower. Strange, but not surprising. In 2003 when Hickenlooper ran his first campaign ads for mayor, he took on downtown parking meters in a humorous ad. In his assist to the 2005 Referendum C campaign, he jumped out of an airplane. Hickenlooper goes for the smile.
As I commented on KOA August 19, the ad is well-designed and the message is basically defensive. He’s trying to inoculate himself from the inevitable onslaught of negative ads that will attack him as a liberal, big-spending Democrat.
So, his first ad attacks negative ads, which most voters say they don’t like. The ad voiceover claims Colorado needs a governor who “brings people together to create jobs and cut government spending” – essentially Republican themes.
The ad’s most effective aspect, however, is its non-partisan, good government tone. It is vintage Hickenlooper, the funny, quirky non-politician who just wants to work together for the common good – nice start.
To see press release and Hickenlooper's new ad, click here.
As I commented on KOA August 19, the ad is well-designed and the message is basically defensive. He’s trying to inoculate himself from the inevitable onslaught of negative ads that will attack him as a liberal, big-spending Democrat.
So, his first ad attacks negative ads, which most voters say they don’t like. The ad voiceover claims Colorado needs a governor who “brings people together to create jobs and cut government spending” – essentially Republican themes.
The ad’s most effective aspect, however, is its non-partisan, good government tone. It is vintage Hickenlooper, the funny, quirky non-politician who just wants to work together for the common good – nice start.
To see press release and Hickenlooper's new ad, click here.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
The Media Moved Into Colorado
A Saturday article in the New York Times began a network and cable news rush to Colorado on Monday before the August 10 primary. It reflected the most national commentary I’ve participated in since starting at Channel 9 and the old Rocky Mountain News in the mid-1980s. Fortunately, my interview with the New York Times took place before I had a beer at Gus’ Tavern in Pueblo, not after 150 members of the Ciruli family began a weekend reunion.
Washington Post – “The acid period is between the 10th and after Labor Day.” Dan Balz, July 22, 2010
New York Times – “It would be a huge slam in both cases on the respective establishments.” Carl Hulse, August 8, 2010
Congressional Quarterly – July 26, 2010
NPR – July 23, 2010
MSNBC – Tom Curry, July 28, 2010
CNN – John King, August 9, 2010
PBS News Hour – August 9, 2010
NBC Nightly News – August 10, 2010
Fox News Special Report – August 10, 2010
9KUSA – Election night, August 10, 2010
CBS Evening News – August 11, 2010
Denver Post Perspective – “And this battle will take place in a state with a close partisan balance. It should be a campaign the country wants to watch.” August 15, 2010
The highlight of the interviews was a half-hour with CNN’s John King on Monday night. The panel had Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania, a very sharp and pragmatic Democratic advocate.
My CBS clip referenced Andrew Romanoff selling his house as a sign of determination, producing a lot of offers for futons and air mattresses for Andrew.
PBS is still the standard for long-piece political journalism, and my interview was used to open the show, and in a longer piece on the Colorado primary – a real treat.
In the Denver Post’s Sunday article, I predicted the camera crews will be back in late October. Colorado has all the conditions to remain a political battleground.
Floyd Ciruli Interviews
Colorado Primary Election 2010
New York Times – “It would be a huge slam in both cases on the respective establishments.” Carl Hulse, August 8, 2010
Congressional Quarterly – July 26, 2010
NPR – July 23, 2010
MSNBC – Tom Curry, July 28, 2010
CNN – John King, August 9, 2010
PBS News Hour – August 9, 2010
NBC Nightly News – August 10, 2010
Fox News Special Report – August 10, 2010
9KUSA – Election night, August 10, 2010
CBS Evening News – August 11, 2010
Denver Post Perspective – “And this battle will take place in a state with a close partisan balance. It should be a campaign the country wants to watch.” August 15, 2010
The highlight of the interviews was a half-hour with CNN’s John King on Monday night. The panel had Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania, a very sharp and pragmatic Democratic advocate.
My CBS clip referenced Andrew Romanoff selling his house as a sign of determination, producing a lot of offers for futons and air mattresses for Andrew.
PBS is still the standard for long-piece political journalism, and my interview was used to open the show, and in a longer piece on the Colorado primary – a real treat.
In the Denver Post’s Sunday article, I predicted the camera crews will be back in late October. Colorado has all the conditions to remain a political battleground.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Moving on to Colorado's General Election
Front page of August 15 Denver Post perspective section makes the case Colorado remains a battleground, at least in the Senate race, due to the close balance between the parties and the strength of the major election themes – dislike of Washington DC, new and extreme forces influencing the Republican Party, and intervention of the new Democratic get-out-the-vote model.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Scott McInnis Struggles to Keep Campaign From “Being Overwhelmed” by Water Musings Gate
Since the story first appeared on the front page of the Denver Post, Colorado gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis has had a defensive and inadequate response strategy. His statement that “this is a non-issue” was wishful thinking.
It was clear from Tuesday morning on the story would derail the campaign if not managed.
His cavalier treatment of the water report simply confirmed he felt he was providing something else for the money.
For people like judges, teachers, lawyers, engineers and other professions who write a great deal, his behavior is inexplicable and embarrassing.
A few observations:
• McInnis will attempt to push ahead toward the August 10 primary. If he wins it, he will consider that confirmation that the issue was minor and is behind him. But, his winning may more be a function of the lesser evil rule – Republicans simply believe Dan Maes is an even worse candidate.
• The specter that scares Republicans is Bob Beauprez’s 17-point loss to the not very politically-talented Bill Ritter four years ago. 2010 was the year to win the governorship back. Polls indicate that Republicans, including with McInnis as the nominee, tend to have a 5-point advantage going into the race. Now, McInnis, even if he survives the primary, has picked up major baggage and turned the only statewide newspaper against him early and loudly.
• Obviously, Republicans want to contain the damage. They are currently ahead with either of their senate candidates and likely to win the state’s only competitive congressional race. They also have potential of winning the Colorado House. They do not want a poor campaign and damaged candidate running for governor hurting the whole ticket.
• John Hickenlooper is already attracting more money than McInnis, some of it from the same Republican metro area funders that McInnis was depending upon. If Maes wins the primary, or McInnis looks fatally damaged, expect a stampede of money to Hickenlooper.
• Although there is a mechanism for finding a stronger nominee if McInnis continues to be buried by the controversy, it would be very difficult maneuver to execute. McInnis would have to win the primary, then drop out of the race. It’s not clear what could motivate him to give up after, in his mind, he was just selected (forgiven) to be the nominee.
But even if it was possible, the public impact on swing voters, both unaffiliated voters and moderate Republicans, is not clear. It would look like a backroom political deal and hugely burden the new Republican nominee.
(See articles in Grand Junction Sentinel, Coloradoan, 9News and Washington Times)
9News (7-13-10)
“Ciruli says the way McInnis handles the situation, especially over the next 24 hours, could have a major impact on his campaign.
‘It could end his campaign, frankly, I think it’s that serious,’ Ciruli said.”
It was clear from Tuesday morning on the story would derail the campaign if not managed.
9News (7-13-10)
“Ciruli says the front-page story in The Denver Post could impact the race for the Colorado governor’s mansion.
‘This is very, very big, at least for Scott McInnis. It changes the dynamics of his campaign,’ Ciruli said. ‘He is now on the defensive.’”
His cavalier treatment of the water report simply confirmed he felt he was providing something else for the money.
9News (7-13-10)
“9News Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli says the story does not look good for McInnis.
‘It was a strange story to start with several months ago because $300,000 for a few water stories just did not have a good value proposition. You couldn’t understand what was being paid for,’ Ciruli said. ‘So, it didn’t look good. But now, the fact that he apparently didn’t write the material, it looks dishonest.’”
For people like judges, teachers, lawyers, engineers and other professions who write a great deal, his behavior is inexplicable and embarrassing.
A few observations:
• McInnis will attempt to push ahead toward the August 10 primary. If he wins it, he will consider that confirmation that the issue was minor and is behind him. But, his winning may more be a function of the lesser evil rule – Republicans simply believe Dan Maes is an even worse candidate.
• The specter that scares Republicans is Bob Beauprez’s 17-point loss to the not very politically-talented Bill Ritter four years ago. 2010 was the year to win the governorship back. Polls indicate that Republicans, including with McInnis as the nominee, tend to have a 5-point advantage going into the race. Now, McInnis, even if he survives the primary, has picked up major baggage and turned the only statewide newspaper against him early and loudly.
• Obviously, Republicans want to contain the damage. They are currently ahead with either of their senate candidates and likely to win the state’s only competitive congressional race. They also have potential of winning the Colorado House. They do not want a poor campaign and damaged candidate running for governor hurting the whole ticket.
• John Hickenlooper is already attracting more money than McInnis, some of it from the same Republican metro area funders that McInnis was depending upon. If Maes wins the primary, or McInnis looks fatally damaged, expect a stampede of money to Hickenlooper.
• Although there is a mechanism for finding a stronger nominee if McInnis continues to be buried by the controversy, it would be very difficult maneuver to execute. McInnis would have to win the primary, then drop out of the race. It’s not clear what could motivate him to give up after, in his mind, he was just selected (forgiven) to be the nominee.
But even if it was possible, the public impact on swing voters, both unaffiliated voters and moderate Republicans, is not clear. It would look like a backroom political deal and hugely burden the new Republican nominee.
(See articles in Grand Junction Sentinel, Coloradoan, 9News and Washington Times)
Friday, July 16, 2010
National Polls Show Republicans Ahead Pre-Midterm
The latest polls show that the Republicans have the lead in key indictors as the midterm election comes in sight. That edge is without the public being enamored with the party or its congressional leadership.
President Obama and congressional Democrats appear to have lost the public opinion support that accompanied their majority of November 2008. At least partially it is a function of the slow American economic recovery. While voters can’t change the pace of the recovery, they can take out their frustrations on incumbent politicians, especially in Washington D.C. who are mostly Democrats.
But partially the Democratic collapse is of their own making. Liberal interest groups, House Democratic Committee Chairs, White House strategists (“let no crisis go to waste”) and media allies believed they had a much more resilient support base to push key liberal agenda items, such as the pork in the stimulus bill, the health care takeover and aggressive climate legislation.
By last July, a mere six months after the Obama inauguration, Obama’s approval ratings began to decline as the health care legislation became salient and its polarizing effect became clear.
The electoral evidence of this public opinion shift became clear as the Republicans won the November 2009 governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia – states Obama won – and in the case of Virginia, a state seen as a building block in the Democrats’ new long-term majority.
The midterm election will be the next opportunity to view the voters’ judgment on the administration and desire for change. A recent Pew (7-1-10) and Washington Post national poll (7-11-10) shows the Democrats could lose their 40-seat House majority and five or more Senate seats.
• Republicans are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote.
• Independent voters are leaning Republican.
• Confidence in President Obama’s decision-making has hit a new low and a majority disapproves of how he is handling the economy.
• President Obama’s approval rating is sinking toward the mid-40 percent range, undermining his ability to move the party base and possibly making him a negative factor with swing and independent voters.
• Congressional approval is at new lows.
• The public strongly believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
• The shift away from Democrats is unaccompanied by increased affection for Republicans. Republicans just seem to be the beneficiaries of not being in office.
President Obama and congressional Democrats appear to have lost the public opinion support that accompanied their majority of November 2008. At least partially it is a function of the slow American economic recovery. While voters can’t change the pace of the recovery, they can take out their frustrations on incumbent politicians, especially in Washington D.C. who are mostly Democrats.
But partially the Democratic collapse is of their own making. Liberal interest groups, House Democratic Committee Chairs, White House strategists (“let no crisis go to waste”) and media allies believed they had a much more resilient support base to push key liberal agenda items, such as the pork in the stimulus bill, the health care takeover and aggressive climate legislation.
By last July, a mere six months after the Obama inauguration, Obama’s approval ratings began to decline as the health care legislation became salient and its polarizing effect became clear.
The electoral evidence of this public opinion shift became clear as the Republicans won the November 2009 governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia – states Obama won – and in the case of Virginia, a state seen as a building block in the Democrats’ new long-term majority.
The midterm election will be the next opportunity to view the voters’ judgment on the administration and desire for change. A recent Pew (7-1-10) and Washington Post national poll (7-11-10) shows the Democrats could lose their 40-seat House majority and five or more Senate seats.
• Republicans are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote.
• Independent voters are leaning Republican.
• Confidence in President Obama’s decision-making has hit a new low and a majority disapproves of how he is handling the economy.
• President Obama’s approval rating is sinking toward the mid-40 percent range, undermining his ability to move the party base and possibly making him a negative factor with swing and independent voters.
• Congressional approval is at new lows.
• The public strongly believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
• The shift away from Democrats is unaccompanied by increased affection for Republicans. Republicans just seem to be the beneficiaries of not being in office.
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