Expect to see President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden repeatedly over the next year and half. Obama has been here twice – first for his high-profile signing of the stimulus bill in mid-August to defend his embattled health care proposal. Colorado has retained its battleground status, and likely will be gridlocked with top Democrats and Republicans trying to win the surprisingly competitive gubernatorial and senate races. Toss in a tough race for the new Democratic incumbent in the Republican-leaning 4th Congressional seat, and Colorado has one of each of the top political offices in play.
The level of competition is a bit of a surprise. The state has been trending blue for half a decade, with nearly every top job held by a Democrat. Obama broke a 44-year political record by not only winning the state, but by winning it by more than his national margin (Johnson beat Goldwater in 1964 by more than his national margin).
Governor Bill Ritter is probably the most vulnerable of the three officeholders. A year ago, he was described as vulnerable, now he is taking fire from an aggressive opposition. Many of his initiatives, such as an increase in the severance tax, were derailed by an obstinate electorate, others were drained of momentum by long task force processes reflecting a lack of consensus, and some recent legislative victories have been defunded by the collapse of tax revenue they need.
After a 17-percentage point win in 2006 and a long honeymoon with approval ratings above 60 percent, the date that marks Ritter’s decline is Friday, November 2, 2007, when he encouraged the unionization of state employees with late Friday afternoon executive order – it wasn’t missed by the state’s business and political community.
The irony is that Ritter’s most recent vetoes of pro-labor legislation has gained him little business support – his re-election fundraising is weak – and the active enmity of major elements of organized labor. It remains to be seen if the Republicans can nominate a strong candidate and mount a sophisticated campaign. But, if they do, Ritter is in trouble.
In a July 23, 2008 “Speakout” in the former Rocky Mountain News, Ritter was described as in trouble due to not meeting high expectations. His inaugural theme was about the “Colorado Promise.” Although he is a hard-working governor and mostly stays on message, he seems a bit like an accidental governor with no large base or natural feel for the politics of the job.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Ambassadors Miss Half the Story
Denver recently welcomed the ambassador of Argentina, Chile and Mexico as part of the warm up to the new Denver Biannual Celebration of Latin and North American art and culture. All three of them backed the Obama administration’s position of condemning the Honduras military expelling President Manuel Zelaya.
Although there is widespread support for this position, partially because it has the benefit of limiting the propaganda advantage that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez wanted to gain, it distracts from the salient fact Zelaya was following the Chavez playbook that is endangering democracy throughout northern Latin and Central America.
Any American policy must address Chavez’s sophisticated strategy of destabilizing the constitutionally governed regimes in the region. Using advice and tactical help from Cuba and oil revenue, he has constructed an alliance that includes Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua. Allies extend to Argentina, Paraguay, El Salvador and the OAS. He has also pulled in a host of Caribbean Islands: Antigua, Barbuda, Saint Vincent, Grenadines and Dominica.
Center-left and center-right politicians, like the Ambassadors, are either aligning and accommodating the strategy for domestics left and anti-American purposes, or trying to stay out of the way. But, their regimes are also endangered by Chavez’s 21st century socialism and “relentless ideological delegitimization of republican values and private property, and the establishment of a method for bringing about dictatorship through apparently democratic means.”
Unless the U.S. and its allies develop an equally sophisticated strategy, this new challenge will allow budding dictators to take the normal problems that exist in second world countries and turn them into crises that can destroy the constitutional order.
(See RealClearPolitics and WSJ articles)
Although there is widespread support for this position, partially because it has the benefit of limiting the propaganda advantage that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez wanted to gain, it distracts from the salient fact Zelaya was following the Chavez playbook that is endangering democracy throughout northern Latin and Central America.
Any American policy must address Chavez’s sophisticated strategy of destabilizing the constitutionally governed regimes in the region. Using advice and tactical help from Cuba and oil revenue, he has constructed an alliance that includes Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua. Allies extend to Argentina, Paraguay, El Salvador and the OAS. He has also pulled in a host of Caribbean Islands: Antigua, Barbuda, Saint Vincent, Grenadines and Dominica.
Center-left and center-right politicians, like the Ambassadors, are either aligning and accommodating the strategy for domestics left and anti-American purposes, or trying to stay out of the way. But, their regimes are also endangered by Chavez’s 21st century socialism and “relentless ideological delegitimization of republican values and private property, and the establishment of a method for bringing about dictatorship through apparently democratic means.”
Unless the U.S. and its allies develop an equally sophisticated strategy, this new challenge will allow budding dictators to take the normal problems that exist in second world countries and turn them into crises that can destroy the constitutional order.
(See RealClearPolitics and WSJ articles)
Rahm Emanuel is the Dick Cheney of the Obama Administration
Rahm Emanuel has control of the fulsome domestic policy agenda of the Obama administration as Dick Cheney had of the aggressive foreign policy agenda of the early G. W. Bush administration. In both cases, the presidents had gaps in experience and relationships that were filled by the hard-charging White House operatives.
Emanuel articulated the main Obama domestic slogan when he said “let no crisis go unused.” Cheney’s foreign policy slogan could be paraphrased as “even if there is only a one percent chance.” From these philosophical starting points, the powerful chief of staff and vice president dominated their respective fields of action.
Emanuel articulated the main Obama domestic slogan when he said “let no crisis go unused.” Cheney’s foreign policy slogan could be paraphrased as “even if there is only a one percent chance.” From these philosophical starting points, the powerful chief of staff and vice president dominated their respective fields of action.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
The Week the Health Care Plan Turned South on the Democratic Leadership
In a host of polls published near and at the end of July, just as the Democrats were rushing to pass various health care bills through congressional committees, support for health care reform was dramatically declining as was President Obama’s approval rating.
Contrary to Democratic partisan strategists, health care support among Americans did not decline due to misinformation. The collapse happened just as the debate about health care increased and Democrats began a major push to rush bills through committee and to floor votes. At that point, Democrats controlled the discussion, not radio talk show hosts. The biggest blow in mid-June was the CBO report that the Democratic House proposal would add billions to the deficit and do little to hold down health care costs – hardly misinformation. After that report, the likelihood of a bill before the August recess became zero.
Democrats looked fearful of the August recess. And, wisely so, the August town hall meetings have tossed Democrats on the defensive and required Obama to jump in and use his considerable talent to tamp down the revolt.
The reasons for the collapse are much more related to the cumulative impact of the Obama agenda, especially the spending, and the continuing languishing of the economy.
Wall St. Journal article
New York Times article
Gallup July 29 article
Washington Post article
Gallup July 21 article
Contrary to Democratic partisan strategists, health care support among Americans did not decline due to misinformation. The collapse happened just as the debate about health care increased and Democrats began a major push to rush bills through committee and to floor votes. At that point, Democrats controlled the discussion, not radio talk show hosts. The biggest blow in mid-June was the CBO report that the Democratic House proposal would add billions to the deficit and do little to hold down health care costs – hardly misinformation. After that report, the likelihood of a bill before the August recess became zero.
Democrats looked fearful of the August recess. And, wisely so, the August town hall meetings have tossed Democrats on the defensive and required Obama to jump in and use his considerable talent to tamp down the revolt.
The reasons for the collapse are much more related to the cumulative impact of the Obama agenda, especially the spending, and the continuing languishing of the economy.
Wall St. Journal article
New York Times article
Gallup July 29 article
Washington Post article
Gallup July 21 article
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Democrats Linked to Obama and His Agenda
As public support for the major elements of President Obama’s agenda have declined, the likelihood the 2010 mid-term election will be competitive, has gone up. July 2009 will be recorded as the end of the Obama honeymoon and the beginning of the battle for 2010.
The Gallup poll’s latest generic ballot test to measure the support levels of the two parties in the congressional election shows a 6-point Democratic lead.
Democrats had an 11-point lead in the 2006 mid-term the year they won their majority by 8 points. Democrats need a larger lead in the polls due to a typically lower turnout than Republicans on Election Day. A 6-point lead means the 2010 election could be very close.
With both party’s supporters remaining mostly loyal to their respective candidates, the key will be turnout of base and swing voters, who, at the moment, are breaking evenly between the parties, a shift from a pro-Democratic bias over the last two years.
The Gallup poll’s latest generic ballot test to measure the support levels of the two parties in the congressional election shows a 6-point Democratic lead.
Democrats had an 11-point lead in the 2006 mid-term the year they won their majority by 8 points. Democrats need a larger lead in the polls due to a typically lower turnout than Republicans on Election Day. A 6-point lead means the 2010 election could be very close.
With both party’s supporters remaining mostly loyal to their respective candidates, the key will be turnout of base and swing voters, who, at the moment, are breaking evenly between the parties, a shift from a pro-Democratic bias over the last two years.
Health Care Reform Can be Won or Lost During August Recess
Gallup’s latest poll shows Americans divided into three near equal camps on health care reform. A third (35%) would encourage their congressional representative to vote for it, another third (36%) would encourage them to vote against it and nearly a third (29%) had no opinion.
Partisanship and public’s low opinion of Congress are important factors in the lack of support for the reform bill at the beginning of the August recess and public hearing process. Partisanship is a major factor with 66 percent of Republicans in opposition and 59 percent of Democrats in favor.
The 29 percent of Americans that have no opinion will help decide the issue. Both sides of the debate are trying mightily to influence public opinion. Changes of fascist tactics and viewpoints now emanate from both camps as Democrats try to position opponents as raging extremists and Republicans are shouting suppression of rights and forced euthanasia for the sick and elderly.
Partisanship and public’s low opinion of Congress are important factors in the lack of support for the reform bill at the beginning of the August recess and public hearing process. Partisanship is a major factor with 66 percent of Republicans in opposition and 59 percent of Democrats in favor.
The 29 percent of Americans that have no opinion will help decide the issue. Both sides of the debate are trying mightily to influence public opinion. Changes of fascist tactics and viewpoints now emanate from both camps as Democrats try to position opponents as raging extremists and Republicans are shouting suppression of rights and forced euthanasia for the sick and elderly.
Intermountain West Still a Challenge for Obama
The Gallup poll just published President Obama’s cumulative approval rating for each of the 50 states. The tracking poll average includes more than 80,000 interviews and ran from the inauguration (Jan. 21) through June 30. His average approval rating was 63 percent over the six months.
The Democratic Party’s goal of turning the interior West into a solid blue region is still a work in progress. Only New Mexico (63%) has support equal to the safe Democratic “left coasts.” Among western states Democrats want to bring into the fold, only Nevada (59%) and Arizona (58%) had averages that were close to Obama’s national average.
Colorado (55%) and Montana (52%) were above 50 percent, but well below Obama’s national average. Colorado had the lowest approval among states in the nation that Obama had carried. And, Colorado is a key battleground, with Democrats defending a governor, U.S. Senator and newly elected Congresswoman.
The Democratic Party’s goal of turning the interior West into a solid blue region is still a work in progress. Only New Mexico (63%) has support equal to the safe Democratic “left coasts.” Among western states Democrats want to bring into the fold, only Nevada (59%) and Arizona (58%) had averages that were close to Obama’s national average.
Colorado (55%) and Montana (52%) were above 50 percent, but well below Obama’s national average. Colorado had the lowest approval among states in the nation that Obama had carried. And, Colorado is a key battleground, with Democrats defending a governor, U.S. Senator and newly elected Congresswoman.
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