American People Believe Democracy in Trouble

Only 16 percent of Americans believe democracy is working well. Nearly half (45%) believe it’s in trouble in a new AP-NORC poll.

Not surprising, a second presidential impeachment trial within a year is underway with the charge of insurrection to overturn the election.

Rep. Jason Crow (C) and other people shelter in the House gallery as a mob
of pro-Trump supporters try to break into the House Chamber
at the U.S. Capitol, Jan. 6, 2021 | Andrew Harnik/AP

Just to reinforce the trouble democracy is in, only 52 percent (Gallup 2021) of the public prior to the prosecution case believed former President Trump should be impeached and two-thirds of self-identified Republicans still adhered to the “big lie” that Trump won the election.

America Right on the Move

In four years, Donald Trump has become nearly a cult leader of the American far right. An examination of his speeches, tweets and behavior is a textbook instruction on organizing a right-wing political movement. The effort weaves together three important political themes: populism, or defending ordinary people’s interests against the elite, which often needs a strong leader to successfully espouse; nationalism, loyalty to nation above other nations; and authoritarianism, submission to an authoritative, strong leader. Among the communication and organizing themes and tactics are:

Civilization Threatened
The anti-immigrant strategy was good politics in the 2016 Republican primaries and a key part of the general messaging that Western values and civilization are threatened by outsiders. Close the borders and keep out the “other.” (Populist slogans, nationalist themes)

Sovereignty
In policy and numerous speeches, sovereignty is praised, especially at the UN, Trump declared that each country should serve its own interests. It led to opposition to multilateralism, including the UN, but also criticism of U.S. alliances like NATO. He believed alliances are costly constraints. The slogan “America First” sums it up. (Populist slogans, nationalist rhetoric, authoritarianism)

Anti-establishment
Beginning with the inaugural address references to Washington elites taking advantage of the people, anti-establishmentism continued through draining the swamp and the endless attacks on legacy media, Trump regularly used populist rhetoric to target institutions and individuals that constrained him and critics and opponents. He conducted generalized attacks on professionals, scientists, military leaders and legal institutions. He removed critical administrators, whistleblowers and inspector generals. (Populism, authoritarianism)

Macho Politics
Trump’s language and actions are ill-tempered and hostile. He’s a master in the attacks and weaponized social media. He favors rallies and revels in chants: “lock her up,’ and “build the wall.” Violence is often rationalized and even welcomed. (Populism, nationalism, authoritarianism)

Polarize Electorate
A key strategy is to divide the public and focus affection on that segment that supports him and his agenda. The outsiders are identified, disparaged and isolated, if possible. (Nationalism)

In the end, the movement blended some establishment Republicans, many average Americans, especially in the white working class, and some extremist groups. How long it lasts as a political movement may depend on Trump’s ability to inspire and manage it, but the elements of populism, nationalism and authoritarianism are always present.

Boebert – A Fluke or the Future?

Nick Riccardi in an AP story speculated on the possible takeover of even competitive congressional districts by the extreme wings of the respective parties. It was assumed the Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s would represent a safe district in which primaries are the entire battle. But Lauren Boebert’s district has a modest Republican edge in a state trending Democratic. It was last represented by a Democrat in 2010. And, a modest change due to redistricting could make it more competitive.

But the argument that the incumbency of Congressperson Tipton made the district safer for Republicans and that seniority is valuable had little sway with the Trump base in 2020. Boebert won the general election with the same margin in most counties as Trump – 51 percent.

My comment to Riccardi was that partisanship is so dominant today, even an extreme nominee is likely to receive the party vote, which in the Third Congressional District is enough.

“Are we so locked in, so partisan, that it overshadows everything, even in these close districts?” asked Floyd Ciruli, a veteran Colorado pollster. “Bringing out such controversial forces and taking out an incumbent were not dangerous, even in a district like that.”

Hence, my view is that with extreme polarization this may be the future of both parties. They can expect primary challenges from their respective wings in even “lean” districts.

Lauren Boebert (C) recites the Pledge of Allegiance with her mother, Shawn
Bentz (L), State Senator Ray Scott (C) and Senator Cory Gardner (R) during
 a get-out-the-vote-rally at Grand Junction Motor Speedway in Grand Junction,
 Nov. 2, 2020 | Barton Glasser, Special to The Colorado Sun

Reported in The Sun, Feb. 8, 2021:  A fluke or the future? Boebert shakes up Colorado district

Presidential Abuse of Power

The upcoming impeachment trial for Donald Trump will focus on the events of January 6, but the overreaching topic will be the crisis of democracy that has been ongoing. Although American democracy always faces challenges, it has been under repeated assault during the last four years. In a presentation on Feb. 3 for Boulder OLLI, “American Democracy in Crisis,” one topic was a discussion of the claims that presidential power has been abused well outside of historic norms, with some actions possibly unconstitutional or illegal reflected in the charges in the Mueller report and two impeachments by the House of Representatives. A list used in the presentation follows.

The effort to disable the transition of power, culminating in the January 6, 2021 riot, was only the most recent and dramatic White House action. The list of presidential abuse of power is large and includes politicizing the Justice Department, the U.S. Military and various agencies of science; the obstruction of the Mueller investigation; and the firing of whistleblowers and inspector generals.

The frequent attacks on legacy media and the use of social media to spread false information, foment division, attack rivals and critics reduced accountability and undermined democratic governance. Mr. Trump weaponized the White House and all the instruments of presidential power for his reelection, from staging his national convention on the south lawn, to the repeated use of Air Force One as his campaign backdrop.

American democracy held, but it is damaged and the country’s international reputation in shambles. The authoritarian behavior and rhetoric had a high cost.

Voter Polarization Grows

The partisan gap has nearly doubled since the Nixon era. As measured by the difference in the parties’ positions on presidential approval, it is now a record high of 80 percentage points, a jump from 70 points, another record, reported during the Trump era. President Ronald Reagan, a polarizing president at the time, registered a more modest 52 point difference between Republicans and Democrats who approved of his job performance. Today with President Biden, the gap is sky-high due to the 91 percent of Democrats who approve of him and the 11 percent of Republicans who early in his term approve of his performance (several other early polls had different approval numbers, but the gap was consistently above 70 points).

This record spread between the parties measured by presidential approval is accompanied with an increase in the intense and negative feelings about the other party and its candidates. Most voters tell pollsters that they mainly voted for their party’s candidate not because of a positive impression, but because they disliked the opposition candidate and party more. So, that about two-thirds of each parties’ identifiers voted more against Trump or Biden than in favor of their respective party’s candidate.

That reflects polls showing party members’ viewpoints that the other party will cause existential damage if it comes to power. There will be “lasting harm” if it wins and that the other party has incompatible “core American values and goals.” In other words, they can’t be allowed to retain or gain power.

Finally, the latest presidential party differences are not only intense, but they have spread down the ballot to other races, so senate, congressional and even local state races are increasingly in near perfect party alignment. And, partisan differences have spread to relations between family members, work, media selection and across political topics, such as how people see economic conditions. We are in the age of intense, negative partisan polarization.

American Democracy in Crisis – OLLI Boulder

January 6, 2021 was a 9/11 event for democracy. The transition of power – a bedrock element of American democracy from George Washington through Barack Obama – was directly challenged by a mob motivated, assembled and inspired by President Donald Trump, his family and retainers. A webinar sponsored by the Boulder OLLI Speaker Series on February 3 will examine the crisis of democracy in America.

Although after four years of the Trump presidency, American democracy held, it is damaged and serious threats lie ahead. Strong, dramatic and collective action will be needed to repair it. 

The First Week: Biden vs. Trump – Crossley Center Zoom Event, Feb. 9, 2021

President Joe Biden has inherited a formidable set of challenges, from a pandemic still spreading, a crippled economy, a social justice crisis, an injured political system and a weakened position in a threatening world.

Providing a perspective on the transitions, the inaugurals, and President Trump’s and President Biden’s first weeks in office are former Ambassador Christopher Hill, now at Columbia University; Colorado College professor (retired) and Presidential Scholar Tom Cronin; and Crossley Center Director Floyd Ciruli.

Join us on Zoom February 9 at 11:00 am.

REGISTER HERE