Why is Michael Bennet in New Hampshire?

Sen. Michael Bennet speaks at a house party hosted
by supporters in New Hampshire, Jan. 12, 2020 | C-Span

Michael Bennet’s quest to become the 2020 Democratic nominee for president is rapidly coming to an end. From the May start after cancer surgery, to the debates missed after July, and the end of his colleague and friend John Hickenlooper’s campaign, Michael Bennet has been mostly ignored and unreported. His current polling average is 0.2, at the very bottom of the RealClearPolitics list.

Why is he still in this race? Why did he get into it? Those are the questions I hear frequently at presentations regarding Colorado’s upcoming Super Tuesday primary. These are my views knowing his career and recent campaign:

• The U.S. Senate in 2019 has become an unfriendly place for ambitious Democrats who would like to accomplish some policy objectives. Mitch McConnell runs it like a Republican plantation with little room for dissent or creativity. Democrats are mostly overshadowed by their senior leadership and junior senators carry little weight. What better way to breakout than write a book and run for president in what appears a wide-open year.

• Although Bennet is hardly charismatic, he is widely respected by fellow senators, Washington policy operatives and press corp. He knows the policy process and does great interviews.

• With more than 20 candidates lining up for the Democratic nomination, it indeed appeared wide open. Hindsight suggests space was much more limited for party activists’ attention than the size of the the stages in the long series of debates. Bennet was always near the edge of the stage and never approached the center.

• Bennet’s theory of breaking out – that is Joe Biden would fade and he would be a viable alternative – failed in that Biden did not fade – he’s still the frontrunner – and there are now more viable alternatives supported by activists, namely Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.

Shortly, Bennet’s failure in Iowa and New Hampshire will be distracted by what is likely to be a brief Senate show trial on impeachment. Will this nine-month adventure lead to an appointed position or a future run? Maybe, but for now, it’s over.

Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Unlikely

Donald Trump’s quest for a Nobel Peace Prize was always more a product of his self-regard and endless competition with Barack Obama than a realistic possibility. But, when Trump threatened the destruction of Iran’s cultural sites if Iran attacked the U.S. after he ordered the assassination of their top general, Qassem Soleimani, he became more likely to be compared to terrorist-like ISIS and its destruction of Palmyra and the Taliban destruction of stone Buddha statues than a Nobel laureate.

Damaged Monumental Arch at the ancient city of Palmyra in central Syria
after it was retaken from ISIS by government forces | Omar Sanadik/Reuters 

The Party is Over. Unaffiliated Voters Dominate.

As the election of the century approaches, more than two-fifths of Colorado voters chose no party affiliation. And, for a variety of factors, that number is expected to grow.

Unaffiliated voters have been voting on the left in the last couple of elections, but Democrats will have to be careful. These new non-party participants – and they participate at historical rates – don’t like parties or the party establishments and can be quickly attracted by new candidates, issues and looks, much like new Hollywood seasons where the content and the way it’s delivered can doom or reward a show, a studio and a network.

The Colorado two-party system is at risk. Republicans are fighting for their relevance, even their basic competitiveness in counties they dominated as recently as a decade ago. But, Democrats haven’t gained loyal fans, and bad choices in nominees could upend all the rosy 2020 and beyond prognostications.

As the data below shows, Democrats, as a percentage of registration, has been stable for the last 15 years while the voter rolls have surged by a million voters. Republicans, who were in the lead in 2004 by nearly 200,000 voters (Bill Owens was governor and G.W. Bush reelected as president), are now a distinct minority and in danger of losing their top officeholder, Cory Gardner.

And, the number and influences of unaffiliated voters will increase, not diminish.

• Unaffiliated voters are now able to vote in primaries, and voted in large numbers in the 2018 gubernatorial primary, their first opportunity. They are increasing as a percentage of the electorate and were a significant bloc of voters in the 2019 off-year election.
• Voters are being registered automatically as unaffiliated at motor vehicle offices and then asked later by mail if they want to join a party.
• More than half of new local voters and out-of-state transferees, especially the young, have registered unaffiliated. Colorado’s growth adds unaffiliated voters.

Read Colorado Politics: GOP the loser in voter registration – “unaffiliated” the big winner

Does Census Help Republicans or Democrats in 2020?

Lou Jacobson, one of the country’s premier political analysts, described the impact of the 2020 U.S. Census on the states, which could win seats (8) and those that could lose seats. As expected, the impact will depend on circumstances in 2020 because many of the seats that could shift are in battleground states, such as Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Jacobson has been a senior write for Roll Call, the National Journal, Governing and the Almanac of American Politics. He’s now featured in three of the most influential political reports in the country – Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and US News & World Report.

In Colorado, which will gain a seat, he wrote that an independent commission will decide the new district’s boundaries.

“The new seat will likely be centered in the Denver metro area but could affect the lines in far-flung areas of the state, says Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster in the state.

My prediction was the split will end up Democrats 5 seats and Republicans maintaining their advantage in three non-metro Denver seats.

California Sends a Congressional District to Colorado

California may lose its first congressional seat in its history as a state, as Colorado gains another after a population surge of 700,000 since the 2010 census (current estimate – 5,758,236, up from 5,029,319 in 2010). The following House seat shift is an early projection based on 2019 census estimates by the Brookings Institute and Election Data Services. It shows winners and losers:

Eight to ten seats are moving from old eastern and mid-western states to the west and south, continuing long-term trends on U.S. population shifting. California believes its loss is on the cusp and is spending millions to publicize the Census this April to find enough people to hold on, but the slowdown in foreign immigration, slow family formation of Millennials, and the decade-long flow of ex-pats to Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon and Texas has brought California’s net growth to a halt.

Georgetown Law Gets a Bigger Home

After nearly 50 years on a small part of an extended block near the U.S. Capitol and Supreme Court, Georgetown Law finally acquired an entire block to build-out one of the nation’s largest and most respected law schools.

Congratulations to the faculty and staff for their diligent effort, especially Dean Bill Treanor. Alumni donors have helped create the superblock over the last half century that includes classrooms, workspace, auditoriums, libraries, a sports and fitness center, dorms, and now room for a large and respected group of clinics, centers and institutes.

The lead gift to acquire the remaining south section of the block came from a longtime donor, Scott Ginsburg (L’78), who previously funded the sports and fitness center.

As a former chair of the law alumni association – congratulations. What a great start to 2020, Georgetown Law’s 150th anniversary.

Georgetown Law bought the former federal Bureau
of Prisons headquarters building at 500 First St. NW

Congratulations to Colorado’s Social Media Advocates

Colorado Peak Politics has a new crisp look and Colorado Pols announced it’s been online 15 years starting in 2004, the last time a Republican carried Colorado’s electoral vote.

Both sites have a lot of attitude and cover stories that are often ill-reported elsewhere. Colorado’s better for it.