Obamacare Repeal Passes, But Fight Over Replacement Just Begins

The repeal and replacement of Obamacare passed the House on May 3, 2017 by one vote 104 days into the new administration, slightly over a month (41 days) after it was withdrawn due to the lack of votes on March 24 and seven years after Barack Obama signed it into law on March 23, 2010 in the White House.

It has been the most controversial legislation in recent political history. Obamacare, as it became known, had no Republican support in 2009 and 2010 and the repeal has no Democratic support today.

Coffman “No” and Issa “Yes”
Of the 20 Republicans that opposed, most were in swing districts. In Colorado, Mike Coffman, who has been a weak supporter of Donald Trump, voted no. The Denver Post congratulated him, and although he has won his last two elections handily, it was probably the safest choice given 2018 could be a very difficult year for Republican officeholders up for re-election.

Darrell Issa, who wavered on the repeal and replace bill, decided to support it. He barely survived a challenge last year in his southern California district. Hillary Clinton won both Coffman’s and Issa’s districts.

Republicans Threatened
Obamacare may be a law that had about an eight-year life span. But it’s not done yet. Before final approval in 2010, Obamacare took months of hearings and negotiations and was approved in the House in November 2009 by only 220 to 215. Expect a similar elongated process and equal intrigue this year.

This was a politically dangerous vote for Republicans. They may pay for it in 2018, but failure to repeal was not an option and the replacement was never going to be popular with some elements of the Republican House conference. The more Republicans fear reaction, the longer they are likely to delay “full” implementation – maybe after 2020.

Flip-Flop or Flexible? Trump First 100 Days

President Trump has run into checks and balances, not just the constitutional restraints built into the system, but the full-range of limitations on executive actions that are part of the American political culture. From the Judiciary (9th Circuit), to Congress (Freedom Caucus), to his cabinet contradicting with him and the permanent bureaucracy leaking, to our foreign allies disagreeing him, the media’s intense coverage and even polls.

Donald Trump appears to realize how much more difficult the political system is compared to what he’s used to when he told Reuters last week, “I thought it would be easier.” And the AP, “I didn’t realize how big it was…every decision is made harder than you normally make.” Not quite the same as commercial real estate.

The President has come to see how complicated many policies are. He has referenced the complexity of health care and the Korean stalemate after listening to President Xi’s description of China’s relationship and history with North Korea.

One typical reaction of most politicians is to blame the rules. And Trump has called congressional rules “archaic,” and in his view, the filibuster needs to go. The White House is floating breaking up the 9th Circuit and changing liable laws.

But another reaction is to adjust. And so NATO is no longer obsolete; China is not a currency manipulator. Janet Yellen is beloved and respected and NAFTA should be negotiated not terminated.

We do not know the back story of many of these shifts. Some may just be reversals of Trump’s penchant for not well-thought-out declarations. But many reflect advice and experiences that show a White House and President dealing with very complex problems in a not always friendly world. His critics call them flip-flops, he calls it flexibility.

Most of the shifts are good news.

Staging the First 100 Days from the White House

Donald Trump staged the first 100 days from the White House, except for a few trips to his winter retreat at Mar-a-Lago and campaign-style forays. After 100 days, the Trump White House operates much as it did in its earliest days. Some describe it as a family-run commercial real estate firm. The distinctive features of the first weeks are captured in an early picture of the President signing the Executive Order to proceed on the XL and Dakota Access pipelines. The days were filled with drama, much of it around the Resolute Desk and, although there was a variety of participants in the room, there was always a cameraman, and initially the early photos were dominated by the campaign team hovering in the background.

The major features of early White House decision-making highlighted by the Resolute Desk stage:

Flat decision process. There is no chain of command. Trump is the star, he decides. Chief of Staff Preibus has some staff, but clearly he doesn’t control access or the agenda.

Centers of conflict. There are numerous power centers defending turf and viewpoints. Competition between nationalist Steve Bannon vs. globalist Jared Kushner is the highest profile conflict, but Preibus has his turf, Kellyanne Conway has hers.

Stay close to the desk. Trump is a mercurial man who tends toward the provocative and the impulsive. If you want to defend a position, an initiative or a space, stay close to his desk. The last person who talks to him often has the most influence.

Keeping the promises. Keeping campaign promises is an obsession with the Trump team. Bannon is in charge and has the list on his wall; he checks off accomplishments, or at least some action. That means that some of the most divisive and least popular campaign promises are high on the White House agenda, such as the wall and travel ban. But, it also means the campaign, with all its bad attitude and mean rhetoric, has moved to the White House.

In addition, the campaign for 2020 has started. The Pennsylvania rally had placards that said “Promises Made, Promises Kept” and TV advertising extolling the 100 days is starting.

‘Un’Obama. Finally, much White House activity is driven by being the ‘un’Obama. From the Inaugural argument over crowd size, to staging a picture of the national security team watching the Tomahawk Missile strike on Syria outdoing Barack Obama’s Bin Laden picture, this White House spends considerable time contrasting itself to Obama. But it also means that Obama is blamed for the need for or the failure of every action. “Obamacare is a disaster; look at the mess I inherited; this is the worst deal in history.” From Syria, to Iran, to the travel ban, to General Flynn’s security clearance, Obama was at fault.

Of course, all presidents do it to some extent. Herbert Hoover was a Democratic punching bag for four decades. Obama mentioned George W. Bush repeatedly as he reversed various foreign policy initiatives, but the volume and repetitiveness of it was minor compared to the barrage of criticism today.

The first 100 days have had some success, but it has mostly been characterized by a lack of preparation, acting precipitously and disorder. Will the second 100 days be the same as the first? Clearly the White House is improving its operations. The leaks are down and there appears more calm, but Donald Trump is the star and the decider, so it’s very much going to be based on his personality and preferences. We shall see.

That Desk is Scary

Gabriel Elizondo of Al Jazeera published a story on Pueblo, Colorado’s close vote for Donald Trump last November. The Al Jazeera audience is huge in Africa, the Middle East and pockets of Europe.

The photog though a shot from my desk would be a highlight. I’d admit it needs some filing, boxing, etc. It sort of looks like the high peaks of Vail.

Credit: Al Jazeera

Also read LA Times: Voters in this Democratic part of Colorado backed Trump. After 100 days, they have no regrets.

Landlines in the Minority

Landlines are now used by less than half the population. The National Center for Health Statistics, which regularly conducts major surveys of American households, reports that 51 percent of American homes are wireless-only.

There are pollsters reported on by the media that only survey landlines. To the extent their data appears accurate, it’s more a chance result (good luck) than a true sample of the population.

Pueblo Chiles and the New Bronco

Garett Bolles’ life story is a wonder. An authentic variation on the extraordinary story of Big Mike Oher recounted in the Academy Award nominated movie, The Blind Side.

But for those of us from Pueblo, Colorado, the highlight in the Sunday Denver Post story by Terry Frei was a brief aside that Bolles considered Pueblo’s welcoming ways and hot chiles as providing some of the important friendships in his life and contributing to his considerable weight. Bolles became a gourmand for Pueblo “sloppers,” the lionized local hamburger with green chiles on it. Pueblo green chiles are nationally recognized as among the best. Whole Foods considers them equal to New Mexico’s Hatch Green Chilies.

“I loved Pueblo,” he said. “They’re great people down there. The food’s outstanding; they put the green chili on the burgers and they smother burritos. Fat food for offensive linemen like me. I loved them; I have so many friends and friendships that always will play a big role in my life.” (Garett Bolles, Denver Post, 4-30-17)

Pueblo is famous for its produce. Ciruli Brothers Produce, known for their Mexico-imported mangoes also at Whole Foods, got their start in Pueblo, Colorado.

Go Broncos.

Garett Bolles and his son, Kingston | Andy Cross/Denver Post

Kogovsek's Death Shocks Political World - Pueblo Chieftain

On Sunday, Colorado lost one of its great water leaders, former U.S. Representative Ray Kogovsek. 

Floyd Ciruli, the Pueblo native who went on to establish Ciruli Associates, one of the best-known polling firms in the West, worked with Kogovsek in his early days in Congress. He said Kogovsek was a natural "networker" but found himself fighting President Jimmy Carter's efforts to cut all water projects out of the federal budget.

"That's when Ray became this ardent defender of natural resources. There he was, trying to explain to Carter why water projects were so vital in the West," Ciruli laughed. "We joked to ourselves that they must have had too much water in Georgia. Ray was the perfect congressman for Pueblo." (Pueblo Chieftain, 5-1-17)

Read Pueblo Chieftain: Kogovsek's death shocks political world