Metro Sales Tax Revenue Finally Up

After two years of flat sales tax revenue collection in the Denver metro area, a modest increase has been reported. As of August 2025, revenue is up by 1.6 percent or about $1 million on one-tenth of a percent tax, or $2 million by year’s end.

The aggregate data doesn’t show which of the seven metro counties is growing. Denver still reports a slow sales tax revenue increase.

Denver Metro Area Sales Tax Revenue Changes

Years	Revenue from Tenth of Cent	Increase/Decrease from Previous Year
2018	$63 M	5.4%
2019	$66 M	4.8%
2020	$64 M	-2.8%
2021	$76 M	18.8%
2022	$86 M	12.2%
2023	$86 M	0.5%
2024	$86 M	0.1%
2025 (Sept.)	$64 M	1.6%

Ciruli Associates 2025

Kevin Flynn Pulls Denver to the Center

Photo via Facebook

As the national battle over congressional district lines proves, how the election system is designed makes a difference in the outcome. Denver’s city council in recent years has lurched to the political left partially because the city’s at-large city council election procedure allowed candidates representing marginal views to win a seat with as little as 16 percent of the vote due to the lack of a runoff. The process was largely inherited from usual circumstances and court cases since the 1970s.

Long-term Denver City Councilperson Kevin Flynn, a Democratic political moderate, proposed a fix. He got a divided council to place it on the ballot and won on November 4th with 55 percent of the vote. Flynn believes candidates regardless of views should have at least half of the electorate supporting them in the final vote.

Congratulations, Kevin

Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue

Photo via Politico

President Donald Trump is now 13 points negative on approval and disapproval, a record low for him (11-15-25). He was a major liability for Republican and conservative candidates and causes in the November 4 off-year election. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor reputation was. Democrats swept governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, the Mayor's election in New York, and numerous lower-level elections, including in the south. It even handicapped conservatives in non-partisan city and school elections in Colorado and helped California’s Proposition 50 supporters.

Trump’s net approval began dropping rapidly since the shutdown started on October 1st. Net approval of his handling the shutdown was -27 percent on November 3, 2025 (YouGov).

In general, the public has been unhappy with Trump’s performance on the economy. He has a net -15 and a majority of people report spending more on groceries (71%) and electricity (59%) as reported October 28 (Washington Post, ABC News Ipsos).

In the first major voter test of Trump’s nearly 10 months into his second term, Democrats and more liberal forces swept to victory arguing Trump promised to deliver an economic turnaround had failed. Trump citing the stock market boom was not enough or relevant to their lives

Blue Wave Sweeps into Denver

A voter drops off a ballot on Election Day in Denver’s Central Park neighborhood.
Photo: CPR News

The anti-Trump Blue Wave that swept November 4 partisan elections in the East also hit Colorado’s off-year non-partisan ballot. Jessica Seaman reported in the Denver Post (11-7-25) on school board wins by labor candidates in Denver and Douglas with addition pick-ups in areas recently dominated by conservative school boards in Mesa and Montezuma counties. She reports 80 percent of labor-endorsed candidates won statewide.

I was quoted that this wave election may reflect both a reaction against the powerful conservative school board movement that gained majorities after the pandemic – no school closures, no masks, no no-trans sports or bathrooms, book censorship – all of which Trump and the Trump administration supported.

I speculated that this may be a harbinger of a broader backlash against Trump and his control of national politics. I specifically cited one of Colorado’s most Republican counties, Douglas, is in transition to a more liberal position.

“Tuesday’s results “may be a backlash from the incredible conservative school movement that got started during the pandemic,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

“(If) leadership in Washington doesn’t read it correctly, it’s going to be a very bad 2026 for them.”

More broadly, Douglas County’s elections may be on the “cutting edge” of the shift away from the conservative school movement, Ciruli said, noting voters’ rejection of a home-rule measure this year.

“Their elections for partisan office are less overwhelming in recent years,” he said. “Their margins have been getting more and more narrow.”

READ ARTICLE:
Here’s a look at how some school board races ended up CPR News, Nov, 5, 2025

Pelosi: An Election Winner Retires

Photo: White House

Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi retires after another huge election win. Proposition 50, California’s anti-Trump redistricting measure that she worked/ advocated/fundraised for, passed 64 to 36% or a 28 percent victory (count on November 7).

Pelosi first became speaker in 2007 after the 31-seat Republican House loss in W. Bush’s second mid-term. She regained the gavel in 2018 in Trump’s 41-seat collapse in his mid-term.

Pelosi’s Big House Wins

Year	President	Win Seats	Notes
2006	Bush	31	Pelosi becomes speaker
2018	Trump	41	Regains the gavel
2026	Trump	?	Jeffries ?

As she finishes her final House year, she wants an anti-Trump victory like 2018 and to hand the gavel to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Is Newsom the Front Runner?

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a rally with Harris County Democrats at the IBEW local 716 union hall on Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, in Houston. | Karen Warren/AP

The Proposition 50 win was huge. The nearly two-to-one spread (64%–36%) covered all of voter-rich Southern California, including Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Imperial Counties.

Governor Newsom was the instigator, primary advocate, and fundraiser ($80 million) for the proposition after overcoming skeptical legislators and a well-funded opposition.

Proposition 50

County	Yes	No
Los Angeles	64%	36%
Orange	55%	45%
San Diego	61%	39%
Riverside	56%	44%
San Bernardino	57%	43%
Imperial	60%	40%

Ciruli Associates 2025

The few early national polls have Newsom first or in the top three for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Winning the high-profile contest countering President Trump’s Texas redistricting strategy makes him the fighter Democrats have been looking for. And having a high profile in the November 4 national Blue surge was good political fortune.

The Democratic Party’s work now focuses on the 2026 mid-term election and expect Newsom to spend considerable time out of state.

READ ARTICLE:
Admit It. Gavin Newsom Is the 2028 Front-runner.
Politico, November 15, 2025

Population Growth for Colorado and Metro Denver Slows 2000-2024

Map of Colorado Couties via worldatlas.com

Colorado’s population growth surged early in the century and added 1.6 million new residents and two congressional seats, one in 2001 and another in 2021 after the latest census. But growth slowed dramatically after the 2020 pandemic, including in Denver and the metro area. Denver is the largest county in the metro area and represents about a quarter (22%) of the metro area population. The metro area represents more than half (56%) of the state’s population.

The metro area includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson counties. The flat population growth contributed to the state’s economic slowdown, the Denver and state budget crisis, and the notably reduced metro sales tax revenue in 2023 and 2024. (See articles linked below on Era of Austerity and metro sales tax collection.)

RELATED:
Colorado’s Quarter Century: 2000 – 2025 January 10, 2025
Metro Denver Sales Tax Revenue Flat Again May 7, 2025

Colorado Enters a New Era of Austerity February 5, 2025
Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation February 18, 2025
Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity February 27, 2025

Quarter Century of Political Change for Colorado and Metro Denver 2000-2024

Denver Metro Area Map courtesy of www.larryhotz.com

Starting in 2008 after the Democratic National Convention that was held in Denver and Barack Obama’s ultimate election, Democrats have dominated Colorado presidential politics. Notice the significant jump in the Democratic vote in Denver after the convention. Arapahoe, a mostly Republican County, also drifted towards the Democrats in 2008 and much further after the 2018 election with a near sweep of county offices.

Douglas County remains Republican but not as strongly as early in the century. After Obama, Democrats Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris all won the Colorado presidential contests.

The metro area includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties. Together, the region voted 63 percent for Harris in 2024, nine points higher than the state. Denver, Boulder and Broomfield were the most supportive counties for Harris and Douglas the least. Adams and Jefferson counties are more competitive, but the Democratic party has been in control.

Vibrant Denver Wins Big

Election Night party at Après Govnr's Park. Nov. 4, 2025. | Photo: Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite

When Denver voters are down they usually invest big. The city on the high plains really would not have been much if founders hadn’t fought for the railroad which started it off to become the regional transportation hub it is today. It took an airport investment in DIA (the region’s biggest business) during the middle of a steep economic downturn to keep Denver the Capital of the Rocky Mountains West.

The 2025 near-billion-dollar bond package won a major victory as Denver makes a statement that the current economic and political climate won’t hold it back.