Five Guardrails Around Trump

Trump speaking at the Presidential Inauguration | Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Post-election analysts give President Donald Trump’s advantage on the economy the most credit for his win. It was largely based on a nostalgia, and for new voters his reputation as having produced a good economy during his first term.

But there was considerable amnesia about the first term’s chaos even as Democrats spent most of their campaign efforts targeted at Trump’s misbehavior, i.e., Jan. 6, impeachments, convictions, indictments, etc. As the administration starts, will chaos come back into view?

President Trump’s win was narrow but he is governing as if it is a mandate, using executive orders and broad emergency decrees. However, there are guardrails on his behavior. His approval rating of 47 percent is high for Trump but could turn down in the first 100 days. Most observers see a burst of inflation due to the disruption of tariffs, and mass deportation. If an economic slowdown begins, unemployment will go up from record low of 4.1 percent and the market could drop after a year-end 23 percent return. Finally, Republicans only have a 4 vote House majority to move legislation.

Although political and legal guardrails may be less potent today, the Five Guardrails using recognized political and economic data will start to measure the success and blowback from “shock and awe.”

Trump Won Close Election But Considers It "No Limit Mandate"

Donald Trump Swearing In Ceremony January 20, 2017

The last three presidential elections have been close. But Donald Trump is treating his election as a landslide. To his numerous legal investigations and threats, he argues, “The voters have spoken.” Shortly after noon January 20, he will sign hundreds of executive orders on the first day as “only a dictator on day one.”

But the election results show he only received 6 more electoral votes than Joe Biden in 2020, got a lower percentage of the vote (49.9%) and fewer total votes. Trump’s vote spread was not only well behind Biden’s but was less than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Total voter turnout was lower in 2024 than 2020 and Trump received fewer votes than Biden.

Metro Mayors Assess the 2025 Politics

Denver Metro Area Map courtesy of www.larryhotz.com

The seven county metro mayors will assess the new 2025 political environment at their annual retreat.

Floyd Ciruli will discuss the quarter century of change in the state that increased the population by 37 percent to nearly 6 million and from a presidential battleground state with a slight Republic tilt to a safe Democratic state with unaffiliated voters in the majority.

As the new Trump Administration begins, Colorado’s relationship with Washington will change at the same time its population growth, economy, and fiscal health is being challenged.

The Metro Mayors’ Caucus was founded in 1993 to assist mayors dealing with multi- jurisdictional challenges. They now have 38 member municipalities represented. The current leadership is:

Chair	Laura Weinberg	Golden
1st Chair	Gayleen Castriotta	Broomfield
2nd Chair	Kyle Schlochter	Littleton
	Bud Starker	Wheat Ridge
	Jan Kulmann	Thornton
	Meredith Leighty	Northglenn
	Jason Gray	Castle Rock
	Greg Mills	Brighton
	Alan Paul	Director Regional Affairs Denver
	Liz Rogers	Intergovernmental Relations Aurora

UCI 2024 Election Panel: What Happened and Why

UCI’s School of Social Ecology organized a post-2024 election panel on the “Lessons from the 2024 Election in Orange County and Beyond.”

Three panels, assembled on December 6, included many of the best reporters with the Los Angeles Times and other media outlets. Some of the panelists were:

• Mark Barabak, Columnist, LA Times
• Melanie Mason, Reporter, Politico California
• Jenny Medina, Reporter, NY Times
• Seema Mehta, Reporter, LA Times
• Laura Nelson, Reporter, LA Times
• Laurel Rosenhall, News Manager, LA Times

The conversation ranged widely and offered the belief that has only grown since, that the relatively close November election will have a major effect on the two parties and American politics for the foreseeable future– we have entered a new era of power.

Orange County Has a New Poll

UC Irvine and its School of Social Ecology are conducting and publishing polls focused on the residents of Orange County. Recent headlines show its topics concerning the just-completed 2024 election but also salient issues of county residents in general. The poll results regularly appear in the LA Times and Orange County Register.

• Many OC residents skeptical of election results, potentially swaying key races, poll finds. Hannah Fry, LA Times 4-29-24
• “We just can’t afford to live here!” Housing costs are driving people out of Orange County. Hannah Fry, LA Times 8-9-24
• Poll: Half of Orange County considers move, weighs price vs. quality of life. Andre Mouchard, OC Register 8-14-24
• Economy Sways Local Voters. Hannah Kang, OC Register 12-6-24
• How OC’s diverse electorate is shifting. Hanna Kang, OC Register 12-12-24

The poll is directed by the school’s top administrator, Dean Jon Gould. He initiated it three years ago, shortly after assuming leadership of the School of Social Ecology. I consulted with Jon on the polling start-up and have been impressed with the speed and quality of the project.

The school is also sponsoring panels and other events with state and national academics, analysts, and political reporters to engage UCI students, faculty, administrators and local residents. The most recent election panel entitled “What Happened and Why” attracted a large audience with many of California’s top political reporters and columnists. It received extensive media coverage.

UCI and the School of Social Ecology have greatly enhanced their visibility while offering expertise concerning social and political issues in Orange County.

Congratulations, UCI and SSE.

Election 2024 Analysis: CU Denver Panel Series

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

Beginning on September 6 and continuing to November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs (SPA) hosted a series of panels on the 2024 election focused on Colorado. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and SPA Senior Fellow, developed the program and moderated three of the panels. The panels drew from some of Colorado’s top politicians, reporters and political analysts.

The panels and key participants were:

September 6 First Friday Breakfast: “Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads”

• Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultants, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
• Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
• Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

October 11 “Colorado Direct Democracy Produces a Torrent of Proposals”

• Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
• Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
• Krista Kafer, opinion columnist, The Denver Post
• Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly

November 8 First Friday Breakfast: “What Happened & What Lies Ahead”

• Chris Hanson, State Senator, Denver City/County
• Barbara Kirkmeyer, State Senator, Weld County
• Paul Teske, Dean, CU Denver SPA

Also, two additional panels were sponsored by SPA:

• “Latin X Voters: Hold Sway” (October 4) with Paul Lopez, Denver, City/County Clerk Recorder and “Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration” (October 25) with Matt Crane, Colorado County Clerks Association.

More than 500 students, academics, administrators and Colorado residents attended in person and online.

RELATED:
CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year Oct 3, 2024
First Friday Breakfast - Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead Oct 16, 2024
First Friday Breakfast Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead Oct 31, 2024
Is Colorado’s Direct Democracy Working? Nov 1, 2024
Election 2024: Candidate and Party Vulnerabilities Nov 19, 2024

Colorado’s Quarter Century: 2000 – 2025

Map of Colorado Couties via worldatlas.com

Looking back at the last quarter century, Colorado has been a growth boom. It added more than1.5 million people and gained two congressional districts while its politics has evolved from a swing state leaning Republican to today firmly in the Democratic camp.

• While Colorado added 1.6 million residents the last 25 years, or a 37 percent increase, its voter registration nearly doubled (66% increase).
• The state was considered competitive between the parties and in 2000, Colorado had a Republican governor, Bill Owens, and two Republican U.S. Senators, Wayne Allard and Ben Nighthorse Campbell (George W. Bush won its electoral votes). Today, Colorado votes strongly Democratic for President (Kamala Harris) and has a Democratic Governor, Jared Polis, and two Democratic Senators, Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper.
• The six congressional seats in 2000 were 4 to 2 Republican and the 8 seats today are evenly balanced; however, the state legislature is strongly Democrat.
• Party registration has shifted from a slight Republican advantage to about half the voters unaffiliated with Republicans in third.

Although the Colorado economy has, since 2000, mostly grown, it followed the various national slowdowns (dot.com bust, great recession, pandemic). The state was on a major growth boom from 2010 to 2020 driven by 700,000 people moving in, mostly young, well educated, anglo. But since the pandemic, Colorado’s population growth slowed dramatically, the economy has cooled, and now local governments are facing tight budgets.

Democratic Race to Replace Newsom Begins

California State Capitol, AP Photo/Juliana Yamada

California is about to change governors. As Governor Newsom ends his term and the Democratic Party struggles for a strategy and message after November 5, a host of Democrats are beginning the early primary maneuvering.

A new statewide poll of all voters from UC Berkeley shows the early order of names, mostly sorted by their name identification, with liberal former US Senate candidate Katie Porter ahead and followed by more than a dozen lesser known politicians.

Republicans came in second and third. The table shows the top seven names.

The field then drops to less than 7 percent of the 1st or 2nd choice among voters. Included in the “other” category was Rob Bonta, California Attorney General, Betty Yee, former State Controller, and Rick Caruso, L.A. businessman. One large caveat is, if Kamala Harris jumps in the race she would start with a third of the vote as “very likely” to support her and another 13 percent “somewhat likely” (46% total).

The Democrats begin the race with a major advantage in the general election. However, their effort to adjust to the November 5 voter slippage and address the state’s population slow down and affordability crisis will be watched by Democrats nationwide.

Newsom Begins Tough National Race

Newsom and Trump in 2018 | Photo: Politico/Paul Kitagaki Jr.

Governor Gavin Newsom, who is term limited, has a major handicap as he begins presidential field testing, namely California. A new Census report shows the state is still slated to lose more congressional clout as people leave the state. It is judged in repeated national polls as a failed state rated “least desirable to live” and ranks last again in U-Haul move ins. And in a November revolt 68 percent of the voters enacted harsh new penalties for property crimes and drugs, defying Democrats who had advocated lighter sentences. They also dumped two Democratic District Attorneys.

California lost its first congressional district in its history after the 2020 reapportionment. A new population report shows if current population trends hold, the state could lose four congressional seats in 2030. The big winners are Texas and Florida, which could gain seven.

The most frequent complaint is the high cost of living in California. Unfortunately, Democrats have contributed to the affordability crisis with regulations, taxes and mandated wage increases (highest in cost of living in country, 4th highest tax burden).
OC Register, Lansner 12-22-24

Newsom has two years to show he’s not the problem and there are some solutions. It won’t be easy.

Polis Term Limited - Democratic Race Starts

Polis with Chainsaw | Photo: Nick Coltrain, Denver Post

Governor Jared Polis’s chain sawing of outdated executive orders got him national attention of Trump officials. While the term limited Polis is beginning to adjust his image for his next political move, Colorado Democrats have begun the silent primary to replace him for 2026. One congressperson and two of the state’s constitutional officers, both term limited have been tested in a recent statewide poll of prominent Democrats. The results, mostly reflect name identification at this early, early point.

Attorney General Phil Weiser who had the lowest name identification has already announced his campaign, no doubt to make up being less known. He is also considered more moderate in Democratic Party circles but should have an opportunity to raise his profile and partisan edge engaging with the Trump Administration. Jena Griswold, the highly partisan Secretary of State, had the highest favorable rating among Democratic-leaning voters but also the highest unfavorable. Although Congressperson Joe Neguse is not well known, he had a high favorability rating and would be a formidable candidate. Ken Salazar, former Senator and current Ambassador to Mexico, is both well known and popular, but he considered the race in 2018 and decided against it. At 69, he would be the oldest candidate in a field when generational change is being widely discussed. Others could have been tested, such as Congresspersons Jason Crow and Brittany Pettersen.

It should be a competitive primary.

Reported by Seth Klamann, Denver Post 12-17-24, Marshall Zelinger 9 KUSA 12-16-24