Will “ObamaCare” help, hurt or be irrelevant to the Democratic cause in retaking the House of Representatives in 2014? After three years, it is a rare Democrat that claims it will help in 2014. The Democrats’ consensus view is that it won’t hurt. It’s summed up as: If it didn’t hurt in the 2012 congressional or presidential races, it won’t in 2014 either.
And, there are a host of factors that support their view:
- With the Supreme Court decision and the President’s re-election, the law will not be withdrawn and the public doesn’t support repeal
- With the law now in place, Democrats can join Republicans in complaining about specific provisions or implementation
- The offer of federal money is tempting many Republican governors to join the Medicaid expansion provision
However, Democrats are vulnerable. The fundamental law is not popular. Only 37 percent of Americans say they favor ObamaCare and 40 percent are unfavorable. If the law’s implementation between now and 2014 has negative consequences, it will reinforce voters’ unfavorable view of it. And, quality and access to health care has risen as a top concern of voters as the economy has improved.
- Will insurance premiums go up?
- Will employer coverage diminish?
- Will Medicare benefits be cut?
- Will new individual and employer mandates, taxes and regulations be seen as onerous and be resisted?
The bottom line: The impact of ObamaCare is uncertain and it continues to be controversial. Smart Democrats will maintain some distance from ObamaCare, but because the implementation is taking place the next 12 to 16 months before the election, they will be vulnerable to adverse effects.
See:
Public Opinion Strategies:
Obamacare at three: Key health care data
The Hill:
Dems no longer fear “ObamaCare”
Kaiser Family Foundation:
March 2013 tracking poll
Gallup:
Gov’t budget, healthcare join economy as top U.S. concerns
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