Slight Tilt Toward Democrats in Congressional Races

One of the most watched polling numbers is the generic ballot test of congressional races.  It now appears to be leaning Democratic (2 points on Sept. 25), meaning that Colorado’s two Democratic congressional challengers – Joe Miklosi in the 6th CD and Sal Pace in the 3rd CD – could get a little help from an electorate starting to lean Democratic.

Most of this year, the ballot test has been dead even or closely matched with a small Republican or Democratic advantage.

This new shift is being generally interpreted as a product of the Democratic surge in the presidential polls since the convention, which has been accompanied by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election and improvement in the party’s image with the electorate at large.

The Democrats need to pick up 25 seats, not a high number. Republicans were up 7 points in 2010 when they won 65 seats and Democrats recaptured the House in 2006 with a 9-point advantage, winning 30 seats.

Typically, Democrats need a few more points than Republicans on the generic test to make up for low turnout, but in this presidential election, that may be less a factor.

See:
Gallup:  Democratic enthusiasm swells in the swing states, nationally
Pew:  Democrats now more positive on campaign 2012
Pew:  Obama ahead with stronger support, better image and lead on most issues