The October Surprise is COVID-19

President Trump claims his around-the-clock campaigning the last two weeks in 2016 was responsible for his victory. But, it’s clear he believed the Comey letter was the coup de grâce on Hillary Clinton’s final momentum and a great asset to his message that she was a “crook.”

His effort to find an October surprise to use against Joe Biden (Hunter Biden) began in the summer of 2019 with the Ukrainian President conversation and has continued most recently by pressuring the Attorney General, the FBI director, supportive intelligence officials and Republican Senate Committees.

But the October surprise appears to be the COVID-19 surge, which the President, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and the White House communications team have all argued that COVID-19 is “behind us,” “can’t be managed” or “ending the pandemic was a top administrative accomplishment.”

Those statements may become as well remembered as Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s post Lehman Brothers collapse (Sept. 15) comment: “The fundamentals of the economy are strong.” The polling rapidly turned negative for him and the ticket after beginning close post the Republican Convention. The media coverage also focused much more on economic problems and McCain’s campaign difficulties (he suspended it for a while).

A man carries a box from Lehman Brothers'
offices after the bank failed, 2008 | Getty Images

See: How the Lehman Bros. crisis impacted the 2008 presidential race

Pueblo: Where Does the Old Steel Town Go in 2020 – Red or Back to Blue?

Donald Trump winning Pueblo, Colorado by 290 votes was an earthquake in local politics. The old Democratic stronghold had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon crushed George McGovern in 1972.

The Colorado Sun’s top political reporters, John Frank and Jesse Paul, recount the story of the Democrats’ failure in 2016 and the possible revival of the Democrats’ fortune this year. I told them that for the Third Congressional District race:

“I think Pueblo is the key,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Pueblo native and the director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver.

My view is that Democrat Mitsch Bush must reverse her 2018 loss in Pueblo (1,200 votes) to be able to counter Republican votes from Mesa and other Western Slope counties. (She lost the District to Scott Tipton in 2018 by 8 percentage points). The good news for Mitsch Bush is that another Democratic-sponsored poll shows the race dead even, with Trump only ahead of Joe Biden by one point.

If she can combine various outposts of progressive politics in Routt, Pitkin, San Miguel and Gunnison counties (home to the main ski resorts), she might just win it. In any event, it may be one of the few close races in Colorado Tuesday night worth watching

Election Central – Foreign Policy Impact: U.S. and Japan – Nov. 11

On November 11, join the conversation on the foreign policy impacts of the U.S. election results and its effect on the U.S.-Japanese alliance and policy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Returning is former Dean and frequent Korbel School speaker, Ambassador Christopher Hill, now at Columbia University, joined with Japanese political and election television commentator, Professor Toshihiro Nakayama of Keio University in Tokyo. Crossley Center Professor Floyd Ciruli will review the latest election data and moderate the discussion.

The program is supported by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

2:00 PM MT

November 11, 2020

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Crossley Center Election Coverage Continues

The Crossley Center with the Korbel School and University of Denver are committed to a program that informs the electorate about the issues and political environment and provides opportunities for public engagement. The Friends of the Crossley Center have been in the front row of a series of election-related programs on media, polling and forecasting; Colorado issues and campaigns; and China’s role in the election. Video archives of all the programs are available here.

The program continues through Election Day, and as the final results become clearer, we will shift to foreign policy on Nov. 11th.

Next, the Results – The Nov. 3rd Election: What Happened? Why? What’s Next? – Nov. 4

Is November 3rd the most important election in a generation? Most voters believe it (77% Gallup). On November 4th, Pollster and Professor Floyd Ciruli and Korbel School Dean Fritz Mayer will review what’s known and unknown in the presidential and Senate results. Was it a blue wave or a mixed outcome? What is expected next from election officials, candidates and campaigns – final counts, concessions, lawsuits, demonstrations? 

This discussion is sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Scrivner Institute of Public Policy.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

3:00 PM MT

November 4, 2020

REGISTER HERE

Election Central – Foreign Policy Impact: U.S. and Japan – Nov. 11

Frequent Korbel School speaker, Ambassador Christopher Hill, now at Columbia University, joins Professor Toshihiro Nakayama, national media commentator from Keio University in Tokyo, Japan, and Crossley Center Director Floyd Ciruli for an update of the U.S. election results and discussion of the foreign policy implications for the U.S. and Japanese alliance from the elections in both countries (Japan just changed prime minister through a parliamentary party selection). 

This program is sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

2:00 PM MT

November 11, 2020

REGISTER HERE

Colorado Voters to Decide Eleven Ballot Issues, Some Appear Close

Although Colorado is now predicted to give Democrats an advantage in the presidential and senate races, will the state’s voters continue to be as conservative on tax and spending issues as they were in ballot initiative elections in 2018 and 2019? There are several on the ballot attracting considerable money and attention. In the Crossley Center chart below, funding amounts are from Ballotpedia. Three different polls are listed as indicated.

Proposition 116, the income tax reduction, has attracted more than $3 million in contributions and the only poll claims it is ahead 51 percent to 35 percent. Possibly the most expensive item on the ballot, Proposition 118 for paid employee leave, has received more than $7 million in contributions and two polls indicate it will win with about 60 percent of the public in favor.

Not surprising, the most complicated issue on the ballot, Amendment B, the Gallagher removal amendment, has few voters certain of their preferences. Only 39 percent make a selection in one poll. Proponents of removal have an advantage in funding of $4.7 million to only about $200,000 for opponents. But when there is doubt and confusion, a “no” vote becomes a final choice. (The CU poll offered two versions of the question. Both had more than 30% “don’t know.”)

The 2020 ballot also includes a highly polarizing social issue, abortion, with Proposition 115 banning late-term abortions. It has attracted the most money – nearly $8 million, mostly in opposition. Early polls showed voters divided 42 percent to 45 percent, but with an advantage for opponents.

Another issue, paid leave has attracted massive out-of-state contributions of $7 million and is substantially ahead according to the polls.

Finally, national contributions poured into Proposition 113, a repeal of the statutory effort to leave the Electoral College with other like-minded states. Four million dollars out of a total of $6 million has been attracted by the popular vote out-of-state advocates.

Debates are Over, But “Nothing’s Moving the Numbers”

Valerie Richardson in a Washington Times interview wrote an analysis of why the many October (and some September) surprises don’t appear to be having an effect, or as I told her:

“Is there something out there? Is there a five-point shift in Hunter or in a late October surprise?” Mr. Ciruli said. “I don’t know. I’ve been waiting for it, the surprise that moves things. I’ve seen so many things that I thought might be the surprise, and nothing’s moving the numbers.”

Richardson reviewed a host of late campaign surprises, rumored and actual.

• Vietnam peace deal – Humphrey, 1968
• Iranian hostages – Carter, 1980
• DUI arrest in Miami – W. Bush, 2000
• Lehman Brothers crash – McCain, 2008
• Superstorm Sandy – Romney, 2012
• Access Hollywood tapes – Trump, 2016
• Comey letter – Clinton, 2016
• Woodward’s book and tapes – Trump, 2020
• Trump’s taxes – Trump, 2020
• Hunter Biden – Biden, 2020
• The debates – Trump/Biden, 2020

Floyd Ciruli, director of the University of Denver Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, said the whirlwind year made it difficult for The New York Times’ reporting about Mr. Trump’s tax returns, for example, to take root.

“The story got some traction, but the next thing you knew you had the debate, and the story was pushed back, and then the president got the virus, and then the debate got pushed back,” said Mr. Ciruli. “So there’s just so many events piled up that it’s hard to not only get traction but to affect the electorate and tighten the race.”

If the media cycle moves too quickly for such surprises to resonate with the voters, Mr. Trumps may bear some of the blame with his constant changing of the conversation.

“What we’re in is a completely different news cycle than even four years ago,” Mr. Ciruli said. “Partially, it’s that our news consumption is different, but it’s also Trump. Because he is so news-needy and is in the news so much, there is something every day superseding what just happened.”

Secretary of State Attempts to Promote Civil Behavior at the Polls

In an unusual election season characterized by a lack of civil discourse, protests, sometimes turning violent, and armed groups threatening to patrol voting sites, the Colorado Secretary of State is trying to lower tensions at polling sites. In an article in the Colorado Springs Independent by Pam Zubeck, the Colorado Secretary of State ruled that wearing apparel identified with a candidate or party was acceptable if it didn’t say vote for or specifically mention a candidate. Hence, MAGA hats and BLM t-shirts were approved.

Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli and Associates, a political polling, consulting and analysis firm in Denver, says he views the Secretary of State's guidance as an attempt to strike a compromise and give poll workers distinct direction on what is and isn't allowed.

Noting that Trump has issued a call for action for supporters to "watch" polls and that concerns have arisen about violence associated with the election, Ciruli says, "This sounds to me like an effort to find a line here for polling workers to be able to say 'no' to some things that are direct advocacy and not raise objections [to the MAGA insignia]," which doesn't specifically name a candidate.

"It's obviously a compromise," he says, adding, "I can't imagine a harder job than policing polling places."

Trump supporters wear MAGA hats at a Feb. 20 rally
in Colorado Springs, Feb. 20, 2020 | Zach Hillstrom