Merkel Wins, But a New Right Arises

German Chancellor Angela Merkel won a fourth term on Sunday, making her Europe’s longest surviving and premier leader. But the election saw the emergence of the far right anti-immigrant, nationalist party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), as a major parliamentary opposition party. It received 11 percent of the vote in Western Germany, but 23 percent in the East to be the region’s second largest party after Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU).

Merkel’s campaign slogan was “Die Mitte,” The Center. Unfortunately, the center parties, CDU and Social Democratic Party (SPD), part of the ruling coalition, suffered major losses in this election. They went from a combined 67 percent of the vote in 2005 to 54 percent today. The SPD, which lost 20 percent of its 2005 vote, now claims it will go into opposition and not be part of the ruling coalition.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses supporters
after election win, Sept. 24, 2017 | Reuters

The rise of the AfD on Merkel’s right is largely a product of her immigration policy. Most CDU voters who did not vote for the party told the exit poll it was because of Merkel’s refugee policy. But the new right didn’t just draw from Merkel’s CDU. In fact, it took nearly a third of the SPD lost votes (500,000) and 40 percent of CDU/CSU decline (1 million). AfD also attracted more than 1.2 million non-voters from the 2005 election.

While Merkel won, forming a new government will be difficult and the new coalition less stable. Her party is now weaker and the pro-EU, pro-refugee policies will be on the defensive.

See:
Wall Street Journal: Rising right dents Merkel’s win
Wall Street Journal: Strong Showing by Nationalist Party Jolts German Politics
The Guardian: What the stunning success of AfD means for Germany and Europe

Japan Calls Snap Election in Korean Crisis

Shinzo Abe, given good marks for handling the North Korean crisis and building a relationship with Donald Trump, has called a snap election one year earlier than required. Abe has been moving up in recent polls after a drop due to corruption scandals affecting him and his wife (79% of public say they are unhappy with government’s explanation of the scandal in new Kyodo News poll).

With his recent improvement in the polls, he wants to hold the election before new rivals and controversies erupt. The latest polls show his party (LDP) in the lead, but with many people undecided.

Abe was the first world leader to establish a relationship with President Trump at a high-profile visit to Mar-a-Lago in February. It has helped keep him in the limelight at subsequent meetings of world leaders. In office five years, Abe is hoping the North Korean missile threat and his quick actions with Trump will give him momentum to hold a majority for another term and refresh his mandate.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo
and President Donald Trump dine at Mar-a-Lago

A new political movement based around the popular governor of Tokyo may be Abe’s and the LDP’s main threat. Yuriko Koike could be the center pole in a new national party (Party of Hope). Like many mature democracies, old center parties are vulnerable.

A few other factors effecting the election:

• The economy has improved after years of stagnation
• The Emperor will abdicate soon, an important cultural event
• Changing the constitution to modify the pacifist clause is still controversial without a clear mandate to change
• There are 475 seats lower house (Diet) has power. LDP-Komeito bloc has 316 (66%). Election scheduled for October 22.

Read CNN: Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo calls snap election

Republicans’ Dance Card Nearly Full

State Treasurer Walker Stapleton
Photo: Jerilee Bennett/The Gazette

With the entry of Walker Stapleton, the Republican line-up for governor appears complete. However, just to maintain a little suspense, two names continue to be mentioned. Attorney General Cynthia Coffman has been coy about her intentions. She would be a formidable candidate from having been the highest Republican vote-getter in 2014 and after three years of sparing and periodically cooperating with Governor Hickenlooper.

Also back in his self-promoting mode is perennial insurgent Tom Tancredo. He would be mostly a spoiler, but his anti-immigration, anti-establishment position attracts reliable activists among the party’s faithful.

Stapleton must be considered a frontrunner for the nomination. His assets include serious fundraising depth with national Bush family contacts and a host of issues to run on – PERA reform, anti-tax positions (opposing single-payer/billion dollars for education initiatives) and term limits. But Stapleton is the epitome of the establishment in an era that seems to reward the outsider and the edgy insurgent.

Partisanship Defines the Era

Although people still like to deny party loyalty, party-line voting is on the rise. In fact, partisanship is so intense that 33 percent of Democratic parents do not want their children to marry a Republican and 49 percent of Republican parents would have their daughter avoid a Democrat, a tenfold increase of parents holding the view since 1960. Party prejudice is now stronger than race or religion.

It’s not surprising that the presidency, the peak of partisan identity, is highly polarized. Today, more than 80 percent of Republicans regularly tell pollsters they approve president’s job performance and barely 10 percent of Democrats do the same. That split, as the table below shows, is at record levels. Seventy-one percent of voters now have opposite positions on presidential performance, up from 35 percent in the 1960s and in the 50 percent range as recently as the Clinton and Reagan presidencies.

Partisanship has also spurred down ticket voting, with 90 plus percent of partisans voting through a ballot of federal officials, starting with the president and staying with one party through senators and congresspersons. But partisanship affects voters’ views not just of candidates, but on a host of issues, including the state of the economy. The supporters of the party in control of this White House tend to be more positive about the economy today and its direction than the out party. Of course, media audiences are highly skewed by partisanship, with Republicans watching Fox and online with Breitbart and Democrats watching MSNBC and linking to Huffington Post.

And now, who do you want your daughter to marry?

The Trump Presidency: “The Good, the Bad, the Ugly”

Two hundred and fifty participants of the OLLI educational program began the 2017-18 school year with a presentation on the Trump presidency after seven months. The title, “The Good, the Bad, the Ugly,” provided a framework for a view of what has gone right, gone wrong and what the politics is producing, which in America today tends to be ugly.

The 1966 Spaghetti Western, which was initially mostly criticized as too vulgar and too violent, is now recognized as bringing a new and much copied style into the American Western film genre. The film offers an instructive framework for the political era we are in. Today, anti-heroes rule, the language is caustic, the demonstrations and the talk shows are more violent, and everyone is against the establishment. In the Sergio Leone film, the anti-heroes fought law enforcement, the army and each other, and today, it is anything from Washington.

The nature of the presidency and how historians judge it began the presentation, followed by a review of the:

Watch tribute video of The Good, the Bad and the Ugly here

Record Crowd – Hill and Ciruli Speaking to Denver Eclectics

Former Ambassador and Dean of the Korbel School of International Studies, Christopher Hill, and Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, will present a talk on November 10 to a record crowd of 330 members of the Denver Eclectics.

The following describes the program.

Afghanistan: A Decision That Both the Public and the Base Dislikes

The Afghanistan decision may have been President Trump’s most difficult. He did not want to raise the ante in what looks like a losing proposition. He has railed frequently on how poorly it’s been handled and how we should just get out. But after weeks of wrangling with the Pentagon and the generals in his administration, he went with their recommendation for more time and troops.

He only made it only after a long meeting at Camp David with his full national security team.

While he gave a speech as to why he went against his preference, he was vague as to what exactly was committed. But Trump’s instinct on ending America’s participation in the Afghanistan war is in alignment with a plurality of public opinion and his most ardent supporters of the Steve Bannon wing of the base. In fact, Bannon’s exit from the White House was expedited by his resistance to the military’s recommendations on Afghanistan.

Although Republicans supported Trump’s decision, with 66 percent among whites with no college degree (4-year), only 48 percent agreed with nearly two-fifths opposed (39%).