Country Ready for an Independent?

Dem. Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Rep. Ohio Gov.
John Kasich at a news conference in Washington, June 27, 2017
Photo: Getty Images

John Kasich and John Hickenlooper have mused the moment might be right for an independent ticket for president and vice president. Of course, they offer the usual denials that they are not serious, but they do have several things working for them. Both parties delivered their nominations to very unattractive candidates leaving huge swaths of voters making their least unfavorable choice. Donald Trump’s insurgent takeover of the Republican Party and Bernie Sanders nearly capturing the Democratic nomination shows how vulnerable the parties are to movements and ideas outside their respective establishments and orthodoxies.

Considering 2020, the Republican Party remains fractured by Trump’s self-regard and character flaws as much as any policy differences. But the Democrats continue to appear befuddled locating an attractive governing philosophy beyond opposing Trump, a strategy that did serve them sufficiently in 2016.

But as weak as the parties have become, the opening for a bipartisan team of two moderate governors to run as independents is still very narrow.

Power of Partisanship
America’s two-party system still represents at least 60 percent of the electorate and voters tend to remain loyal. Trump would have a 25 percent approval rating from his core supporters if regular Republicans weren’t still on board. And, although he eked out his thin victory with the white working class in several states, in fact, he carried upwards of 90 percent of rank and file Republicans.

But beyond voter loyalty to overcome, the parties have embedded themselves in state statutes, making ballot access and conducting third-party campaigns very onerous.

Money
Massive amounts of money will be needed to get on the ballot in most states and to run a campaign. Neither Kasich nor Hickenlooper are rich or such high-profile celebrities to get around the $1 billion minimum that appears to be required to both promote a candidacy and to defend against the inevitable attacks.

Democrats
Hickenlooper, in particular, will be considered by Democrats as a spoiler. The Party is convinced Trump is likely a one-termer and will not want a moderate independent/Democrat in the field that could siphon Democratic votes from the ticket.

Moderation
This appears to be a moment the public is interested in politicians who lower the drama and extreme partisanship to get things done. But, the centrist approach that often wins for state executives may not motivate the wider reaches of national party voters or even independents.

The good news for the two of them is that the moment appears right to offer some can-do bipartisanship. All the legacy media is ready for a contrast to Trump, the Freedom Caucus, Nancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders. At a minimum, Kasich and Hickenlooper should have fun ride on the talk shows.

Interview with Erica Meltzer for the Denverite, an online newsletter:

Longtime Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli said this frustrating coyness is “a common Colorado trait of politicians who are nationally ambitious.”

“The history is that for a very long time, as soon as you talk about national ambitions, you get into local trouble,” he said. “They say, ‘you’re not paying attention to us,’ and everything gets judged by their national ambitions.”

So all those denials are really confirmations?

“He’s absolutely interested, but he’s realistic,” Ciruli said of Hickenlooper. “This would be the longest of long shots, but at the moment, this is a really interesting perspective in terms of partisanship and gridlock and moving past that.”

. . .

Ciruli said the fact that this ticket is being talked about at all reflects the political moment we’re in, one where both parties produced candidates that were broadly unpopular in the last general election and there is widespread disgust with gridlock in Congress and intense partisanship.

“It’s the best alternative theme out there,” he said.

. . .

Ciruli said the more likely third-party candidate would be someone very rich and capable of self-financing a national run — someone like Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, whose recent tour of the country complete with many social media posts with “real Americans” raised speculation, or former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg — not “a couple of well-intentioned politicians.”

. . .

If nothing else, this speculation raises the profile of the governors’ brands.

“Good for them,” Ciruli said. “They’ll make a lot of talk shows.”

War With North Korea and Presidential Trust

President Trump doesn’t make it easy for the majority of Americans to support his direction on North Korea.

• A majority of the public prefers negotiation to threats io military action with North Korea (59%)
• Most experts believe war would be “catastrophic” (Mattis, 8-10-17)
• Americans would support military action if diplomacy failed
• Trump’s rhetoric has been full of bellicose slogans: “fire and fury” and “locked and loaded”
• Much of the administration’s foreign policy leadership (Mattis, Dunford, Tillerson, McMaster) put Trump’s comments into a more diplomatic context

The bottom line is that more than half the public (59%) is uneasy about Trump’s “ability to handle the North Korean nuclear situation” (CBS News poll, Aug. 14-16, 2017).

And, of course, more than half the public (56%, RealClearPolitics average) disapprove of President Trump’s presidency as of mid-August and only 38 percent approve. He would be the weakest president in terms of approval at the start of a crisis involving military action since Carter (32% approval) in 1979 at the beginning of the Iranian hostage crisis.

Trump has the advantage that most Americans rate North Korea as a serious threat, and know that previous diplomatic efforts have failed. But, Trump has to construct support for his approach from a very skeptical public.

Trump

“Fire and fury” – 8-10, Any further threat met with fire and fury (tweet)

“Maybe wasn’t tough enough” – 8-11, “They’ve been doing this to our country for a long time, for many years, and it’s about time that somebody stuck up for the people of this country and for the people of other countries. So, if anything, maybe that statement wasn’t tough enough.”

“Locked and loaded” – 8-11, “Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path! He has disrespected our country greatly. He has said things that are horrific. And with me he’s not getting away with it. This is a whole new ballgame.”

Mattis – 8-10, “My portfolio, my mission, my responsibility, is to have military options should they be needed. You can see the American effort is diplomatically led. It has diplomatic traction. It is gaining diplomatic results. And I want to stay right there right now. The tragedy of war is well enough know; it doesn’t need another characterization, beyond the fact that it would be catastrophic.”

In Age of Disruption, Governing is Tough

Although European establishment politicians hold power in France, Germany and Great Britain, they are struggling with leading the change the era and major segments of the public demand.

Prime Minister Theresa May was to bring a firm hand to the Brexit process, but lost an election to strengthen her majority and now only has the approval of a third of the public. She faces an unhappy right, an energized left and ever threatening secession sentiments.

President Emmanuel Macron swept into office extoling the EU and internationalism, while crushing the far right. But he shares with May the approval of only a third of the public. Budget cuts required by EU rules have alienated his military and his own style, criticized as imperial, has taken a toll.

Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to lead the Western leaders with more than half of the public’s support. She will likely win re-election. But, her approval has fluctuated and dropped recently as her re-election campaign deals with criticism from the left.

President Vladimir Putin’s 2018 election is in the bag, but he works public opinion like a pro, with a sophisticated propaganda machine, aggressive restraint of opposition and use of foreign policy for fueling nationalistic sentiment. He lets his prime minister take the blame for any weaknesses in domestic policy. His approval rating is in the 80s. Medvedev’s is usually well below the 50s.

President Donald Trump has been in office about 220 days, won office with 46 percent of the public and has never moved above that figure. Today, his approval is often measured below 40 percent.

The politics of the era of disruption is driven by the deep loss of trust in the government and major institutions, including national parties and its leaders, and the broad polarization among significant segments of the public, reinforced by the new technologies of communication; i.e., cable news, social media.

If you prefer a liberal democratic order and a free market, don’t expect it to survive without leaders and a public ready to fight for it.

It’s War: Trump vs. Republican Establishment

Donald Trump has declared war on the Republican Senate establishment. It started with a testy exchange between Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell after the defeat of the health care bill. Trump ramped it up with a series of tweets implying that McConnell was a failed leader and that Senate Republicans were negligent for not staying in D.C. and passing one of the Republican-led bills.

Trump has taken on a number of individual Republican senators who have criticized him during various August controversies. He added fuel to the fire at the recent Arizona rally with attacks on Senators McCain and Flake, including encouraging a primary against Senator Flake. Trump hasn’t spared Republicans in the House. Recent tweets have criticized the House leadership on the debt ceiling. He has called for a shutdown of government if his wall along the Mexican border isn’t funded in the upcoming budget bill.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, President Donald Trump and Speaker
Paul Ryan (Happier days), Mar. 1, 2017 | ABC News

The result of the war between the executive branch and Republicans in Congress will damage the Republican brand and cause a schism between Trump supporters and the Republican establishment, including more traditional Republican voters. Although it will be hard for Republicans to lose the Senate due to the number of vulnerable Democrats up in 2018, the Republican House and its 24-seat majority is up for grabs.

Although President Trump wins a head-to-head contest in the polls with Senator McConnell and Congress – mainly because Congress rates so poorly among the public – it’s a self-defeating victory because it likely undermines any chance for tax reform or infrastructure legislation this year, or even in this session. Trump, no doubt, considers his attacks a warning to Republicans that he will retaliate against any criticism. And, given that he’s most concerned about his brand and already beginning his 2020 campaign, separating from Congress and the health care loss may offer some personal protection. But it damages the Republican Party and highlights the failure of party control and his leadership to relieve gridlock.

Trump appears to be running on his own and against Congress. Will Republicans in Congress now begin to go their own way? This is new political territory. It’s a guess how it changes the 2018 election.

Water Congress Leadership Survey: Identifying, Permitting and Funding Water Projects are Urged as Top Goals for Colorado Water Plan, August 21, 2017

Colorado Water Congress (CWC) members in responding to an online poll conducted this July said the main topics for the “Interim Committee to focus on first” are funding, identifying and permitting water projects and other water infrastructure. The survey was conducted to assist the CWC identify its communication and policy priorities.

Will Polis Join the Ranks of Wealthy Governors? Wealthy Running for Governor.

Rep. Jared Polis | polisforcolorado.com

Louis Jacobson, a political writer for Governing Magazine and co-author of the Almanac of American Politics (2018 edition, due out in a few weeks), writes that billionaires and millionaires are winning the nation’s governorships, but are losing on governing.

Jacobson counts nine billionaire or millionaire governors and more coming, including Jared Polis.

Then there's Colorado, where the race next year to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper includes at least one deep-pocketed Democrat: multimillionaire U.S. Rep. Jared Polis.

In the Democratic field, "Polis is the front-runner and will spend all the money needed," says Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli. "He poured $5 million into a small-time Democratic primary to win his congressional seat in 2008. Beating Polis in a Democratic primary will require a very smart and tough campaign."

With a high-stakes gubernatorial cycle -- the last big cycle before the once-every-decade redistricting process -- each of these races will be closely watched by both parties. "I expect a tough, expensive race [in Colorado]," Ciruli says. "Republicans have their first chance in years to win it, and Democrats see it as important to the presidency."

Read Louis Jacobson’s article, These Governors Are Rich, But Are They Effective? 

Also read The Buzz:
Polis in the Race. Is He the New Frontrunner? – Denver Post
Polis – He Changes the Race – 9KUSA Interview with Brandon Rittiman

The Only People Left

“One by one, our old friends are gone. Death – natural or not – prison-deported.” (Johnny Ola, The Godfather Part II, 1974)

The only people left from the team pictured on January 28, 2017 are the two that can’t be fired.

Will Mr. Bannon’s removal make much of a difference? It’s better for General Kelly and it lowers internal conflict for the national security and economic and domestic policy teams, but Donald. J. Trump is still the master of provoking and improv. Expect more.

See The Buzz:

What chaos?

Bannon about to join Flynn?