Accelerated Investigation Cycle

Much like the 24/7 news cycle, there is an accelerated investigative cycle that involves at least four major congressional committees in both houses and numerous agencies, some with direct, but others with only tangential jurisdiction.

Although President Trump managed to escape Washington’s relentless politics for nine days, the investigations are issuing subpoenas, booking testimony, and gathering staffs and budgets.

Unfortunately for the White House, a normal ally (although the Breitbart crowd now believes Fox News has sold out) issued a poll on Wednesday, May 24, which supported the arguments supporting the investigations, not Trump’s views on “hoaxes” and “witch hunts.” For example, registered voters nationally believe Russia is a foe, the Comey firing was self-serving and an independent investigation needed. Fox News poll:

• Russia foe – Voters see Russia as an enemy – 64%. They believe Trump sees it as an ally – 73%.
• Firing Comey – Voters said yes – 34%, no – 53%. Real reason for firing “because Comey’s investigation was harming Trump’s presidency” – 60%, not because it was harming the FBI – 29%.
• Special Counsel – Voters approve appointment of appointing special counsel – 68%

The President’s approval rating was 40 percent, not much changed from the previous month, but down from the January Inaugural.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller may be the key player in the overall investigation, but the number of committees, agencies, lawyers, news media and leakers engaged guarantees this will be a story throughout 2017. The White House finally gets it and has hired lawyers and set up a war room. Of course, it may generate news, some of it bad.

Construction Defects Legislation: A Win for Compromise and More Housing

After years of gridlock, a construction defects bill passed both Colorado legislative bodies and was signed by Governor Hickenlooper. Although it didn’t completely satisfy the developer community, the legislation reflected sufficient compromise to get it out of committees and through the leadership of both parties.

The main proponents of change in the law were developers, chambers of commerce and other business promotion groups. The major road block has been a Democratically-controlled House. Most importantly for securing compromise from Democrats were local government officials who argued the hair trigger homeowner litigation rules were undermining providing housing, affordable and otherwise, in their communities. Thousands of potential condo units were being held as expensive rental units due to fears of class action suits easily filed against developers and builders.

Although there are fewer State House reporters than decades past, big stories still get covered from a variety of angles. The Colorado Statesman still publishes, although mostly behind a pay wall. Ernest Luning covered the construction defect compromise on April 19.

Probably the state’s best political website is Colorado Politics sponsored by the Colorado Springs Gazette. Peter Marcus posted a story on the Governor signing the bill, with the sponsor and leadership taking a bow. Democratic House member Alec Garnett and Speaker Crisanta Duran were recognized with Republicans Lori Saine and Cole Wist. A host of interest groups also joined the celebration.

The Denver Post’s John Aguilar did an analysis as to why it had been so hard to reach a compromise, with a focus on the money that trial lawyers and business groups had spent on legislative races in recent years.

My comment was that in 2017 Democrats, with a five-seat majority in the House, were less vulnerable than past years.

But the conversation on construction defects reform had evolved to the point where Democratic leadership in the statehouse was under more pressure to compromise, political analyst Floyd Ciruli said. He noted that not only has there been bipartisan support for reform bills in past sessions, but affordable housing advocates and a wide array of metro-area mayors are now pushing for it.

HB 1279 likely passed this time because of the greater political advantage Democrats gained in the House last November, picking up three seats to take a 37-28 majority, he said. Previous Democratic speakers had less room to negotiate when the balance of power in the House was thinner, Ciruli said, and money from the Colorado Trial Lawyers Association was critical to keeping their majority alive.

“There is no doubt that the Democratic leadership in the last couple of terms found it incredibly difficult to find compromise,” he said. “Their entire control of the body really depends on having access to those funds and having the ability to target those funds to specific seats.

“When their majority is that close, they don’t mess around.”

Italy, the Sick Man of Europe

France’s labor markets and productivity are a mess and one of President Macron’s biggest challenges. But, Italy’s are even worse, and there is no sense the politics of the next election will offer a solution.

Italy’s anti-establishment nationalism is intense. Most of the public in Europe support the Euro despite anti-Euro nationalism. Only in Italy does a plurality of the public see the Euro as bad (47%) for the country, not good (41%).

Slow growth, high unemployment, massive debt, low productivity, rigid labor, trade and professional rules, and a general dissatisfaction with the center parties gave birth to the Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo. The so-called party is mostly run as an online movement, but in 2016, it won the mayorships in Rome and Turin. It often looks more like a Bernie Sanders caucus meeting than a national party. But, there is passion and an anti-corruption, protectionist platform that appeals to Italian workers, businesses and dissatisfied voters. At 30 percent support, it is currently Italy’s largest political bloc.

Italy is currently run by an interim government since the constitutional reform referendum of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi failed in December and he resigned. A mid-2018 election is likely, and unless one of the major party groupings can get organized, Five Star could be asked to form a government.

Beppe Grillo, found of the Five Star Movement and Rome’s Mayor

Virginia Raggi during a demonstration in November | Gregorio Borgia/AP

Election Dashboard

Although it is more than a year and a half until the next congressional elections, Washington, D.C. is watching the calendar early, mostly due to the chaos of Trump administration’s start-up. House Republicans are worried about holding their majority and Democrats are busy recruiting candidates.

Democrats need 24 House seats and 3 in the Senate. Both goals appeared unlikely after the November elections, but the beginning of Donald Trump’s second 100 days brings early speculation that Democrat could take both houses.

We will begin regularly publishing the 2018 political Dashboard to quantify and comment on the status of the congressional races, which are likely to be the most watched and analyzed in recent history. Control of Congress, especially the House, will not just decide the Trump and Republican legislative agenda, it may decide Trump’s survival as president. Bills of impeachment are in drafting, with many of the particular charges already identified. It is no doubt premature, but it reflects the President’s vulnerability and the Democrats’ passion.

The elements of the Dashboard are: presidential approval, congressional approval, the generic congressional ballot test, direction of the country, and the number of seats Democrats and Republicans need or enjoy respectively for a majority.

The President’s approval is at a record-low for this early in a term. There are more than 500 days until the November 2018 elections, but now is the time for recruitment and fundraising. Democrats have been benefiting from post-election activism and Obamacare rage. Now, of course, the White House and Trump’s performance are energizing them.

The RealClearPolitics presidential average rating is 40 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval, a 14-percent negative spread. And, the polls of the last few days have uniformly been below 40 percent.

The campaign for the House has already begun with heated town hall meetings for Republican incumbents and Democratic support organizations buying ads in 23 House Republican districts where Hillary Clinton won last year, including Colorado’s Mike Coffman’s 6^th district. He won in November by 7 points, while Clinton was carrying the district by 9 points. Coffman voted against the Republican AHCA repeal and replacement legislation.

Democrats also need to defend 12 seats that Trump won, but with Trump’s low approval and the Republicans’ AHCA legislation having only a 25 percent public approval, it’s Republicans who are the most concerned.

How About the French Transition?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (R)

greets visiting French President

Emmanuel Macron in Berlin

on May 15, 2017 | Xinhua/Shan Yuqi

The first round of the French presidential election was April 23, the second round 14 days later on May 7 and the transition completed on Sunday, May 14. It was a simple ceremony at the Élysée Palace, a speech by the new president and the brief ride down Avenue des Champs-Élysées in a military vehicle. A wreath was laid and President Macron went to work.

One day later, he was in Berlin building an essential relationship with German Chancellor Merkel. Nice transition – less money spent and time wasted and no arguments about crowd size.

New French President Emmanuel Macron waves from a military vehicle as

he rides on Avenue des Champs-Élysées towards the Arc de Triomphe

in Paris, France, May 14, 2017 | AP Photo/Michel Euler, POOL

The EU Gets a Boost. Next Up: England, Germany and Italy.

With the victory of Emmanuel Macron, the EU gets a moment to reconfigure its future. It would be wise not to waste time. European electorates are in considerable stress with far-right and far-left movements adopting nationalist, anti-EU positions to compete with old center parties.

The next European elections are as important as Brexit, Trump and Macron. Prime Minister Theresa May wants to strengthen a governing majority in Great Britain for EU negotiations. Chancellor Angela Merkel must renew her five-year mandate. She represents the dean of world globalists, and with the new French president, the essential partner in preserving the EU. And finally, the most troubled Mediterranean EU member, Italy, will likely have an election in 2018. It could put an anti-EU populist party in control. Italy’s parliamentary election isn’t set yet. It’s likely to be in mid-2018 and the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement could be the largest party.

Nationalists and Eurosceptics continue to have clout. They control the Polish government and are a force in Britain, France, Austria and various parts of Eastern Europe. In fact, a snap election has been called in Austria due to the instability of old governing coalitions and politicians.

Although Ms. Merkel’s party appears well-positioned to be the dominant player in the September 24 election, this will continue a government that has lasted 12 years, a very long run in current European politics. Her challenge comes from the center-left more than the far-right.

French Nationalism Now the Main European Opposition to Globalism

Although the National Front, the main French party representing anti-immigrant, anti-EU sentiments, lost the presidential run-off; the anti-global position in France continues to grow. Marine Le Pen received 21% of the vote in April’s French first round election, but the total of right and left anti-global parties equaled nearly half the total vote (49%).

She increased her vote share 13 percent in the second round run-off to 34 percent. Hence, a third of the French electorate supports an extreme nationalist party, a steady increase from 2002 when the party’s founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, received just 18 percent.

The party (which may be renamed) is also now the leading opposition to Emmanuel Macron’s globalist position. Will nationalist elements of weakened left and right parties join it or can the Republican, Socialist and Communist parties reconstitute into viable alternatives?

The National Front post-election strategy is likely to affect the next steps in development of French

Marine Le Pen | Michel Euler/AP

nationalism. But, the new government will also shape the party’s development. If Macron fails to build a working parliamentary majority or if his solutions disappoint, the National Front and its allies will likely benefit.

Even in losing, the National Front has repositioned French politics from a left-right continuum to a nationalist-globalist framework, although ideologues are more flexible than fixed today. As the second largest party in the second most populated country and largest economy in Western Europe after Germany, the National Front is now the vanguard of the continent’s nationalistic movement.