Legalization of Marijuana on Ballot in Presidential Year

Two presidential candidates have endorsed lifting the federal prohibition on marijuana and several states are considering following Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and D.C. in legalization.

The states, including California, Nevada and Arizona in the west, are likely to have legalization ballot proposals this fall. Research shows that legalization tends to follow and be enhanced by decriminalization of small amounts, legal medical marijuana and the tax revenue that sales can generate.

A host of other states may vote on legalization of sales, either by statute or initiative. All have legalized medical marijuana.

There isn’t much evidence having marijuana on the ballot helps supportive politicians or hurts marijuana opponents, but the likely big 2016 turnout of younger voters should help the passage. Gallup polls strongly point out it is younger voters that are driving legalization, which in their October 2015 poll showed that, while a slight majority (58%) of Americans now supports legalization, a super majority of 71 percent of people under 35 years old were in favor.

Support has increased in all age groups during the last fifteen years, but today, younger Americans and Democrats are much more supportive of legalization than older citizens and Republican identifiers.

See:
Los Angeles Times: How evolving public attitudes on marijuana could affect the 2016 presidential race
USA Today: The next 11 states to legalize marijuana

The Counting Begins

Donald Trump

The Iowa caucus on February 1 is providing suspense for both parties. As of January 27, less than one week from the caucus, RealClearPolitics has Donald Trump six points over Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton even with Bernie Sanders.

The Republican frontrunners are on their way to collecting 1,236 delegates and Democrats 2,382 as both parties start their long marches into July conventions. Eight days after Iowa, the New Hampshire primary, which often is highly affected by the results in Iowa, takes place.

Hillary Clinton

After those two events, there will be a rush to the South Carolina primary and the Nevada caucus – the only other events in February.

Unless Clinton loses control of the nomination due to early losses, the Democratic contest should end in March, which has the bulk of delegate events. Also, she has an early advantage among Democratic committed super delegates.

The Democratic Convention will be held in Philadelphia on July 25-28. Republicans meet in Cleveland on July 18-21.

Democracy is in Trouble

In the 1990s, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was optimism among democracy advocates that it was destined to not just be the dominant mechanism for governance, but the near universal standard. Today, that optimism has been blunted by the rise of Putinism in Russia and the new nationalism of Shi’s China as powerful alternatives to what they consider weak and inefficient Western democracy.

There has been a recent restoration of some semblance of democratic procedures in Argentina and Venezuela, but democratic values are playing defense in many parts of the world. Most importantly, Americans are beginning to believe their system of elections is failing.

Gallup recently asked if people think the presidential campaign is working the way people believe it should. That number has declined precipitously among adherents of all three parties. Overall, only 37 percent of the public now believe the election process is working appropriately.

The metrics of concern about the country and its fundamental political institution is well known. Most people believe the country is on the wrong track, they have little trust in government and offer almost no job approval of Congress.

Anger with the system is driving presidential politics and at least some parts of the public don’t necessarily consider democracy that essential.

• Fewer than 30% of Millennials believe it’s essential to live in a democracy (World Value Survey – 2005-2011)
• More than 25% of Gen X and Millennials believe democracy is a “bad” or “very bad” way to run the U.S.

See Vox: Are Americans losing faith in democracy?

Slouching Toward Socialism

The Democratic Party is having a strange debate initiated by Bernie Sanders’s surprising successful presidential run in the invisible primary. What’s the difference between a socialist and a Democrat? Most Democratic Party leaders, including national chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Senator and next Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer, and presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton, have avoided defining a difference because of a fear of alienating a surprisingly high percentage of Democrats who have a supportive view of the word.

Rating of Socialism

• 56% positive Democratic views of socialism as governing policy
• 69% positive Sanders’ supporters
• 52% positive Clinton’s supporters
• 63% positive Democrats under 30 years old
• 32% positive all voters
• 52% negative all voters

         Source: NYT/CBS News, Nov. 2015          
         Format: Ciruli Associates 2016

Needless to say, this debate isn’t academic. Forty-three percent of Iowa Democrats describe themselves as socialist leaning and Clinton is apparently in a very competitive race in Iowa. The Clinton campaign is attempting to claim Sanders’ socialist label is a handicap in the general election. She is running as the experienced candidate who will win and get things done. Clinton’s challenge, of course, is that a substantial percentage of Democrats want to shake up the system more than be pragmatic about electability.

Just as the Republican establishment fears Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, Democrats in D.C. see Sanders as a disaster for their chances of winning back the Senate and picking up gubernatorial seats.

Both parties’ establishments are being challenged by their grassroots – a balance between attracting passionate true believers and avoiding extremes that turn at the middle.

See:
New York Times: Alarmed Clinton supporters begin focusing on Sander’s socialist edge
Time: The Democrats stumble toward 50 shades of socialism

Iran Nuclear Agreement Still Lacks Public Support

As the Iran nuclear deal came to a final Senate vote last fall, the American people back away from it. Multiple polls showed a majority of the public opposed the agreement. Although there was the usual partisan polarization, members of both parties do not trust the Iranians to live up to the bargain and they have a very unfavorable opinion of Iran (84% unfavorable opinion).

• 49% oppose it (47% support) (CNN poll, Sept. 8, 2015)
• 60% Iran likely to violate the terms (CNN, Sept. 8, 2015)
• 49% disapprove (21% approve) (Pew, Sept. 9, 2015

President Obama remains optimistic that he accomplished the goal of keeping Iran from going nuclear and created the possibility of an Iran that becomes a more responsible international player. Both assumptions have doubters, but the President had a good weekend with the certification that Iran had met the initial agreement requirements, allowing lifting of sanctions and the prisoner exchange. Obama touted a “new path” of diplomacy (a contrast with war-like path of Republicans), but diplomacy was proceeded with sanctions and the threat of force, ours or the Israelis was background.

See Washington Post: Obama: Iran nuclear deal, prisoner release show the power of diplomacy

Obama’s Last State of the Union and Foreign Policy

Last Tuesday, President Obama had what is likely to be his last opportunity to command a national audience with a general policy address. Similar to most presidents, he declared the State of the Union is strong.

Unfortunately, Obama’s speech was delivered into considerable headwind of dissatisfaction. The Republican presidential campaigns are critical of nearly every element of his legacy and the Democrats, while not directly critical, are tending to pick and choose and promising to do better.

• Two-thirds of the public believes the country is moving in the wrong direction
• 52% of Americans disapprove of the President’s job performance
• Only 37% of Americans believe his signature domestic accomplishment will make the health care situation better – 43% believe it will make it worse

And anger at Washington is the dominant theme of the campaigns.

On foreign policy, the President is mostly on the losing end of public opinion.

• His foreign policy job approval rating is only 37%
• Global warming, which he argues is the top global issue, has only 37% of Americans believing it’s a serious challenge in their lifetime
• Although most Americans agree (57%) the U.S. is the number one military power in the world, satisfaction with the nation’s military strength and preparedness has dropped to 59%, the lowest level since 2003 when it was 83%
• On Obama’s signature diplomatic initiatives, the public is supportive of the Cuban rapprochement, but remain unsupportive of the Iran nuclear agreement
• On his military initiatives, he received a short-term rally of support at the death of Osama Bin Laden, but has been under frequent and sharp criticism since 2013 with the ignored Red Line, Russia’s aggression in the Ukraine, the collapse of Syria and rise of ISIS

In general, on the question of Obama’s foreign policy, the description repeated often in editorials and commentaries is feckless. One proof of the political potency of the criticism is that from Hillary Clinton through all the top Republican candidates a more assertive policy is the consensus position.

The Winnowing has Started

Thankfully CNBC had the grit to stand by their debate criteria and winnow out two candidates who have no chance at winning the Republican nomination. Ms. Fiorina and Mr. Paul will be joined soon by Messrs. Carson, Santorum and Huckabee, which is at least a month overdue.

Jeb Bush’s current trajectory keeps him in the race through New Hampshire, but the main question being asked by his Super Pac contributors is when can I switch candidates?

All of these candidates have purported themselves seriously, and at some moments excelled, but none found a sufficient constituency given the angry voter dynamics of the 2015 warm-up with a dominant Donald Trump sucking up vast gulps of media oxygen and the crowded field of both conservatives and establishment figures.

As the blog “Republican Rush to Iowa and New Hampshire” pointed out, if Trump wins Iowa, he’s likely unstoppable. If Cruz wins, then a battle starts that goes at least through Super Tuesday on March 1 and the remaining March events.

Let the winnowing continue.