Republicans Begin to Focus on Elections

Dick Wadhams, in a Denver Post Prospective section column, argues that Colorado Republicans have an opportunity to recover in 2014 what infighting and weak candidates lost since 2002, a competitive, even dominant, Republican Party.

Wadhams cites unaffiliated women voters, metro unaffiliated voters and Hispanics as major constituencies that Republican candidates must be competitive with to win statewide.

He believes Congressman Mike Coffman and U.S. Senate candidate Congressman Cory Gardner have the ability to appeal to those constituencies. But, he warns that nominating a single-issue candidate for governor, like Tom Tancredo, could damage the entire ticket.

Colorado Republicans’ chances for winning in 2014 is being helped by a national Republican Party that is finally focused on strategies and messages for the 2014 election and avoiding destructive and doomed fights with the Obama administration.

Crummy is Back

We were wondering where Karen Crummy had disappeared. Now we know. She was deep into the finances of the Denver International Airport’s hotel and train terminal project.

The airport, a huge asset for the Denver region, has often been a political liability for Denver mayors. Peña, the DIA father, nearly lost re-election in 1987, at least partially because of the airport controversy. Wellington Webb’s delayed airport opening nearly cost him re-election in 1995.

2014 Campaign Season Begins

Colorado’s complex nominating process will begin on March 4 when political activists go to their caucuses. All level of partisan political offices, from local county and legislative positions to the major statewide races, will start selection of party nominees.

The process will end with conventions held in April, the most important will be the Republican state convention (April 12), which will designate candidates for the June 24 primary. Just to make the process a bit more confusing for the average voter, a petition process is also allowed, and many candidates will try to get on the local and statewide primary ballot by petition.

The Republican Party has a crowded field for both governor and U.S. Senate anxious to take on Colorado’s Democratic incumbents in what appears to be a better year than 2012 when President Obama and his coattails helped sweep Democrats into control of the state legislature.

There is a wide open race for governor in the Republican Party, but with a couple of frontrunners who are trying to avoid debates – former Congressman Tom Tancredo and Secretary of State Scott Gessler. Given that the party wants and will need a strong candidate to go against incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper, one who can attract and not repel independents and party moderates, it’s not clear avoiding debate is the best strategy.

See:
9News: GOP hopefuls face challenges in Gov’s race
Denver Post: Republicans debate guns, toll roads, pot in Colorado governor’s race

Colorado, States Mirror Washington D.C. in Polarized Politics

Colorado politics moved hard to the left in 2013, with Democratic state legislators enacting a series of agenda items they felt were long overdue on minority rights, weapons restrictions, and business and environmental regulations. This shift, which produced a political reaction that Democrats are now trying to quell lest they lose their majorities in the 2014 election, is not unique. Colorado, like three-quarters of all the states, is now under unified party control. Single-party dominance is unusual in Colorado, which faced divided control between a Democratic governor and Republican legislature throughout the second half of the 1970s and all of the 1980s and most of the 1990s.

American’s polarized politics has federalized. The states are now as partisanly divided as Washington D.C. This level of single-party dominance (37 states) is at its greatest in a half century. As of today, among states with unified control, Republicans dominate 23 states and Democrats control 14.

Single-party control, when combined with the increased polarization and separate agendas, means less compromise and more legislation proposed and enacted from the extreme end of the parties’ political wish lists. Republican states have been pushing the envelope on abortion restrictions and voter identification laws, and Democrats have antagonized more conservative and non-urban populations with gun control and environmental mandates.

In many single-party controlled states, the dominant party has overreached public opinion and produced a political counter-reaction. In Colorado, legislators were recalled, rural areas threatened secession and Democratic polling numbers collapsed. But, Republican governors and legislators have also faced angry special interests and voters in Wisconsin and Ohio over perceived anti-labor legislation.

If states are the laboratory of democracy, will the cycles of partisan action and reaction create a cadre of new leadership with the skills to manage the polarization toward accomplishment and successful political careers and, if so, will they bring those skills to Washington D.C.?

See:
Washington Post: Red, blue states move in opposite directions in a new era of single-party control
New York Times: After flurry of changes, some states ease up

Colorado Supports Immigration Reform

Immigration reform has been a top political priority for both parties since the 2012 re-election of President Obama. A comprehensive and bipartisan reform bill passed the U.S. Senate in 2013. Although legislation is stalled in the House due to the politics of the 2014 election, the public remains supportive of an immigration solution.

A majority of Colorado voters (59%) and U.S. residents (57%) support allowing illegal immigrants “to stay in the U.S. and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship” as opposed to allowing illegal residents to stay, but not become citizens (11%) or “be required to leave” (26%).

The challenge for the Republican Party is that only a quarter of Colorado voters support some form of deportation, but 37 percent of Republicans do, enough to win a primary if that is the paramount issue. A plurality (47%) of Colorado Republicans support a path to citizenship and a majority (53%) of independents.

If a solution is framed that includes strenuous conditions to citizenship, Republicans join Democrats in reform. The approach that elicits the most support is to describe a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants that includes conditions, such as waiting a number of years, having a job, speaking English and paying back taxes. A national CNN poll on February 2, 2014 found 81 percent favored that type of legislation and it included 72 percent of Republicans.

See Quinnipiac poll here

Pot Second Thoughts, But No Repeal

A majority of Colorado voters (51%) are beginning to have some regrets about the new reputation as the “Stoner State.” But, they show no desire to reverse the decision to legalize and appear comfortable with the current regulation.

Although half the population claims to have tried marijuana in their lives, current use is shown to be about one-in-ten Colorado adults.

The latest Quinnipiac survey provides the first review of attitudes concerning marijuana since approval in 2012 and the January 2014 launch.

Colorado voters give Governor Hickenlooper a good grade for his positions on marijuana policy (53% approve), which reflects acceptance with strong regulation.

The greatest threat to legalization identified in the poll will be increased traffic accidents. Two-thirds of the people are very concerned about drivers under the influence.

Guns and Colorado Politics

The debate over gun control and rights continues to bedevil Colorado politics. Democratic legislators, chastened after losing three state senators to recalls or their threat, tried to lower the visibility and temperature of the issue by allowing unhindered testimony on gun control repeal measures before quietly defeating them in partisan votes.

But, unfortunately for them, if the latest Quinnipiac poll is to be believed, the gun rights issue remains highly visible and contentious among Colorado voters. Voters are protective of gun rights and hostile to new stricter laws, but supportive of some regulation, just not all. Hence, the political battle will continue in 2014, with both parties seeking advantage. And, polls and public opinion will be a regular part of the argument.

More gun control laws generate partisan polarization and gender gaps. Independent voters in this survey oppose more control, but there are little discernable generational gap.

Voters pick and choose measures to control guns leaning to the less restrictive.

• Universal background checks – near universal support: 86% total; 86% Republicans; 97% Democrats
• 15 bullet magazines – closely divided support: 50% total; 26% Republicans; 83% Democrats
• Armed teachers – bare majority support: 50% in favor; 45% opposed; 61% of 18 to 29 years olds favor

Another indication the issue will have traction in the 2014 election is it’s listed as the third biggest issue among voters in deciding the governorship, and Governor Hickenlooper is judged doing an inadequate job on gun policy by 54 percent to 31 percent.

Democrats’ automatic reaction that every gun-related tragedy requires more gun restrictions is becoming a political liability. The percentage of people against more laws is increasing and they are passionate. As I said on NBC Nightly News after the two recall elections: “Every politician in the country now knows passing gun control legislation can be dangerous for your political career.” (Sept. 11, 2013)

See:
Gallup: Americans’ dissatisfaction with gun laws highest since 2001
9News: GOP effort to repeal ammo magazine limits fails