Giron Could Lose

With few exceptions, Pueblo remains a one-party town, but like most one-party states, there are powerful factional differences that often explode into political fratricide.

In the 2012 primary election, the Pueblo Democratic Party dispatched the long-serving local politician and first-term District Attorney, Bill Thiebaut, replacing him with a county commissioner. But Thiebaut himself had just come to power four years earlier by beating the long-term District Attorney Gus Sandstrom in a primary.

And, in this recall election, a likely low turnout affair the week after Labor Day, cranky Democrats will be augmented by motivated Republicans. Senator Angela Giron is in trouble because she:

• was appointed
• is in her first term
• has the only strong Republican area of the city in her district – Pueblo West
• identified with the aggressive liberal wing of the legislative party
• championed the one issue that could defeat her in Pueblo – guns. Pueblo, especially men, hunt and own guns.

Her opposition is not some out-of-town moneyed lobbyists, but local, well-organized, online savvy political activists. Their newness to the process gives them credibility and they have passion. Their excellent positioning and natural talent is reflected in gathering 13,000 signatures with volunteers and having 12,000 verified by using new online technology.

As I said to Valerie Richardson in the Washington Times:

“It’s unbelievable. How do these guys get 13,000 people to sign the petition, and [roughly] 12,000 of them are good?” Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli asked. “It’s a miracle. And it shows the passion here in Colorado behind this issue.”

On September 10, watch Pueblo for an upset of the Democratic Party establishment.

Democratic Governors on the Left

The Denver Post picked up the possible political impact on the 2014 election of Governor Hickenlooper leading a runaway legislature, while the national press is putting Hickenlooper in the context of other Democratic governors “steering their party to the left.”

The National Journal positions Hickenlooper with Andrew Cuomo in New York and Martin O’Malley in Maryland as leading their states down a more socially liberal path. Cuomo and O’Malley are rivals to Hillary Clinton (albeit weak), but Hickenlooper is also on the long list of potential presidential or, in Tina Brown’s view, vice presidential candidates.

Hickenlooper’s special challenge is that Colorado, especially in a lower turnout governor’s election year of 2014, is a less certain Democratic state than New York or Maryland. Possibly more important, Hickenlooper has benefited by being seen as not particularly partisan and mostly moderate – an image that took a beating from January to May this year.

The National Journal story (picked up in local conservative website, Colorado Peak Politics) hit the main facts.

Colorado, a perennial presidential battleground, is experiencing a fierce backlash over the state’s adoption of liberal policies. The state is facing its first recall elections for a pair of Democratic lawmakers who backed stricter gun-control laws spurred by the Newtown murders and the slayings of 12 people in an Aurora movie theater one year ago. In northern Colorado, several rural counties are threatening to secede over the new gun restrictions, driving privileges for illegal immigrants, and a renewable-energy mandate.

“The most recent legislative session in Colorado was the most liberal I’ve seen in decades,” said Democrat-turned-independent pollster Floyd Ciruli of Denver. “Colorado is not New York, so of course there is going to be a reaction. I don’t know if the governor is endangered, but he’s dealing with a narrative of a Democratic Party that went too far.”

While Hickenlooper has public opinion on his side on most of these social issues, taken together, they could fuel Republican attacks that the Democratic Party has become too radical and push away moderate voters. Amid declining approval ratings, Hickenlooper has also endorsed a controversial $1 billion tax hike for public schools. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows that 67 percent of voters disagree with his decision to postpone the execution of Nathan Dunlap, convicted of killing four people in a Chuck E. Cheese’s restaurant in 1993. 

“Democrats have been talking a lot about Republicans being [pushed] into the extremes, and some Democrats here are anxious about a parallel situation,” Ciruli said.

Note: The Colorado Peak Politics, which is an interesting political site and a good counter to liberal ColoradoPols.com, insists on referring to me when quoting The Buzz as “former Democratic Chairman.”

Indeed, for old timers, I was the Democratic State Party Chair in 1983-85 (Gary Hart ran for 1984 nomination and Walter Mondale, the nominee, won one state), but I’ve been an independent since 1985, and for nearly 30 years have tried to offer balanced, fair and evidence-based analyses of Colorado politics.  The record shows I’m equally complimentary or critical as warranted of Democratic and Republican politics and politicians over those three decades.

Of course, the title, “former Democratic chairman,” provides extra punch when my observations are critical of Hickenlooper and Democrats – that is the Peak’s agenda. However, my purpose is to capture what I believe is the developing political frame for the 2014 election.

See:
Denver Post: Hickenlooper a moderate no more? Critics say governor has crossed over
National Journal: How Democratic governors are steering their part to the left
Colorado Peak Politics: Mojo no mo: Denver Post questions Hick’s moderate creds

Obama Having a Bad Day

Tuesday was an especially bad day for President Obama. New polls tested the bottom of his approval range with 41 percent and 48 percent disapproval from a McClatchy-Marist poll, helping push him further into negative territory in the RealClearPolitics.com polling average.

The immigration bill, the last hope for salvaging anything out of his first term agenda, is in trouble, partially because rank and file Republican voters; i.e., primary voters, who are resistant to reform in general, reject reform 9-to-1 when his name is associated with it. He has a net negative impact on his own agenda.

Washington gridlock has joined a stream of foreign news in which America and Obama appear as bystanders sideling his foreign policy initiatives and his aggressive second term agenda highlighted at the inaugural.

And, in what has been widely panned as a desperate effort to change the subject and gain some traction, the Obama team “pivots” for the umpteenth time to the economy. Good idea, you can’t go wrong with the economy, but it looks defensive and it’s hardly clear what he can do about the fact that 50 percent of the public believe next year will be about the same as this one for their personal finances.

Ironically, he announced the latest pivot at a briefing with his highly talented November campaign organization, which morphed into a national lobbying effort for his now stalled agenda.

As they say in Washington – bad optics.

Mitch Morrissey for Mayor?

A rumor is moving around Denver City Hall that District Attorney Mitch Morrissey is being encouraged to run for mayor. It is unconfirmed.

Some Denver police, in particular, have expressed unhappiness with department changes, and the Mayor is dealing with angry local park advocates. Those two departments are large with powerful constituencies. Mayor Hancock is also struggling to contain the rivalries of regional neighbors in Adams and Arapahoe counties.

The next election is May 2015, a long ways off.  Incumbent mayors tend to be re-elected, even those with very controversial first terms, like Federico Pena and Wellington Webb.

But some constituents may be sending a message.

Bruce Benson for Governor?

CU President Bruce Benson is Colorado’s most interesting politician. In two recent interviews, he has candidly assessed his election chances and ambitions post the painful 1994 campaign against Roy Romer and his readiness to do another five years as president of CU at 75 years old.

“Maybe it’s seven, maybe it’s four,” he said. “You get older, you start sliding – am I as coherent as I was 10 years ago? No. Do you forget names more easily? Yes. But if I start slipping, I’m going to be the first one to notice it, and I’ll say, ‘Hey, guys, I’ll give you a year – you’d better find somebody else.’”

Benson not only makes his own case, but the case for the entire Silent Generation (born from 1927 to 1945 during the Great Depression and WWII) who want to continue working, some of whom are in senior positions of corporations, government and other institutions. But, he’s also expressing the anxieties and the interests of the Baby Boom Generation, just now passing 65, who want to stay in the workforce. Benson has always been a straight talker; it’s just a pleasure to hear someone speak up in the era of calibrated comments.

If John Hickenlooper, for whatever reason, should decline to run, the Republican Party should nominate Benson by acclamation.

See:
Denver Post: University of Colorado weighs present and future regarding leadership
Denver Business Journal: Husted: For Bruce Benson, it’s all about his work

Immigration Reform Stalled

Immigration reform is stalling in the House of Representatives due to the particular dynamics of the Republican House caucus and the changing national political environment.

First, the environment. The President is rapidly slipping into the second-term malaise, and a major cause is the near complete lack of accomplishment after his sky-high inaugural address and showy launch of a permanent campaign dedicated to his agenda.

Unfortunately, immigration reform, which combines legislation that addresses what the public believes is needed with the self-interest of both parties and Congress as an institution, is the victim of the President’s decline.

Republicans who have concluded it is important to get immigration reform behind them are beginning to lose colleagues and constituents pleased by the growing sense that Obama could take the party down to major defeat in 2014 and anxious to not give him any legislative victory.

Equally important is the fact the House Republicans’ caucus has at least 60 members who believe immigration reform related to a path to citizenship is bad policy and bad politics regardless of the viewpoint of party leadership or presidential campaign strategists. Critics would say they are a mix of one-third extremists and two-thirds of those fearing a primary.

But regardless of motivation, as of July 2013, the Republican leadership is much more in alignment with public opinion:

• 71% of Americans believe immigration reform is important to deal with (Gallup, July 11, 2013)
• 88% believe a path to citizenship is necessary (similar levels of support for e-verify at workplace and better security at border (83% of self-identified conservatives agree) (Gallup, July 11, 2013)
• 26% satisfied with current government immigration policy (Gallup, July 12, 2013)

Passing immigration reform would be a benefit to Republicans nationally and the institution of the House. They finally get something done.

See:
Gallup: Passing new immigration laws is important to Americans
Gallup: Americans praise gov’t work on natural disasters, parks
The Buzz: Immigration reform: Good for Congress

Passion and the War in Iraq

In March 2003, 80 percent of Americans supported the war in Iraq. Today, only 38 percent believe it was worth fighting, and although the general interest in foreign policy and the war has declined, passionate minorities still fight the war on social media and in their attitudes reported to pollsters.

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll shows 19 percent of Americans strongly believe the war was worth it, but 43 percent, or more than two-to-one, strongly disagree.

Of course, Republicans remain more supportive.  Fifty seven percent believe the war was worth it, but only 27 percent of Democrats do.

Iraq became a liability for President Bush by late 2004 as it became clear the end was not near and the cost in lives and money was growing. Within a few months of Bush’s re-election, support for the war and his reputation began to sink in a nearly one-to-one relationship with support for the war.

Bush clearly believed the war was necessary and justified. His decision to launch the surge in 2007 may have been his toughest, but it turned out most successful in the war. But, as numerous observers have pointed out, the war had high costs not just for Bush, but the Republican Party:

• Republicans damaged their reputation as the party that could be trusted to manage national security
• It contributed to the debt, divided the party on fiscal issue and left Republicans with an image of irresponsibility 
• It led directly to Republican losses in 2006 and 2008
• It highlighted the estrangement between the Republican Washington establishment and the grassroots.

Of course, the current viewpoint on the war’s worth is being influenced by five years of Obama’s administration’s criticism of it and the November 2011 complete withdrawal. Republicans and independent voters’ views of the war have turned decisively negative in the last two years.

See Pew Research: A decade later, Iraq War divides the public