Jefferson Biggest Vote Total, But Denver Added Most Voters Since 2004

Colorado’s presidential vote total grew by 422,000 from 2004 when President Bush carried the state by 5 points to 2012 when President Obama reversed the results and won the state by 5 points for the Democrats. (See May 28 post: New Voters Move Colorado to the Left).

The Denver metro area generates about 55 percent of the state’s voters, but it supplied 62 percent of the growth in voters since 2004, or 263,000.

Jefferson County produced the most voters among the seven metro counties with 311,000, but Denver had the most new voters since 2004, adding 61,000 (numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand). Denver added a half percent in additional voting clout in the metro area since 2004.

Percentage-wise, Broomfield, the smallest metro county, had the highest rate of voter growth at 43.5 percent, or 10,000 additional voters. But, as usual, Douglas County continued its fast growth rate of 37.7 percent and its large number of new voters, 46,000.

Boulder’s policy of growth control and shedding local governments (Broomfield) had the effect of giving them the slowest growth rate (11.8%). Only Jefferson County, which hasn’t attracted much growth in recent decades, was as slowly growing (13.9%).

Colorado Weather Changes Political Fortunes

Climate scientists say we can expect more extreme weather – horrific hurricanes, huge tornadoes, torrential rains and monster dumps of snow.  In the last decade, Hurricane Katrina helped end George Bush’s career on a sour note, but Hurricane Sandy gave Barack Obama a final lift.

Politicians have all become storm chasers, recognizing that beyond expressing sincere compassion, their careers depend upon their skill and visibility in handling the crisis.

Drought, summer heat and resultant fires, tornadoes, floods and massive snow storms have had stark effects on Colorado politicians’ careers.

Although Dick Lamm had won his election for governor in 1974 in a sweep for Democrats, constant bickering with legislators and an ill-temper cost him support.

But a massive rain and flood of the Big Thompson project in the summer of 1976 put Lamm in a helicopter helping direct disaster aid. It contributed to his November re-election and political recovery.

Lamm’s successor, Roy Romer, got a little political protection when a huge tornado devastated the high plains town of Limon. Romer also personally directed the disaster effort. The timing was serendipitous. It happened just as rumors were spreading beyond political gossip that he was having an extramarital affair with a senior staffer. The story receded as the Limon tragedy took over the media narrative.

Snow has repeatedly affected political fortunes in Denver. The massive Christmas snow of 1982 helped derail re-election plans and end the political career of Mayor Bill McNichols. And, a three-foot deep snow in March 2003 trapped people indoors just as John Hickenlooper started airing his whimsical television advertisements for his Denver mayor election, beginning a decade-long political career that put him in the governorship.

Death Penalty Remains Popular

No one who knows John Hickenlooper is surprised he would not execute Nathan Dunlap.  But, he will pay a political price.

Hickenlooper, as is his style, tried to finesse the issue. The reprieve approach, combined with his explanation, sounded confused. He apparently has “evolved” to being anti-death penalty. Why not just say it and provide clemency? Hickenlooper claimed during his gubernatorial campaign in 2010 to be willing to enforce the death penalty. So, this decision makes him vulnerable to the charge of failing to keep a promise – a trait politicians are often accused of, and Hickenlooper hates to be considered just another politician.

In the legislature this year, he derailed a straight up Democratic effort to abolish the death penalty by statute arguing there needs to be more dialogue about the issue. Hickenlooper recognized Colorado voters had approved it twice and national polls repeatedly show it has more than 60 percent support from the public.

Mr. Dunlap elicited little sympathy and the victims are visible and vocal. While the crime was 15 years ago, the recent violence in Aurora puts in relief that today’s politicians have a responsibility to deterrence, enforcement of legal orders and public justice.

John Hickenlooper has been a lucky politician and it is not likely this issue or his handling it will end a career, but, just as Republicans begin to get serious in opposing Hickenlooper’s re-election in 2014, he provides them new talking points.

See:
Denver Post: Nathan Dunlap granted “temporary reprieve” by governor

New Voters Move Colorado to the Left

More than 400,000 additional Colorado voters participated in the 2012 presidential election than did in the 2004 election. Republican Mitt Romney gained 20 percent of the additional votes and Barack Obama took 76 percent for the Democrats, or nearly four times the Republican increase.

Some of the additional voters simply did not participate in 2004 and were sufficiently motivated in 2012. Also, Colorado continued to grow in voting age population, even during the Great Recession. And some of the increased vote was the much commented upon youth and minority voters, many of whom are a part of the large emerging Millennial Generation voting bloc. (cohort born from 1982 to 2000) 

Millennials, born during or after 1986, were just 18 in the 2004 presidential election between George W. Bush and John Kerry. In 2012, an additional eight years of the generation joined the rolls, or about 70 percent of the estimated 80 million members.

National exit polls show they voted by 60 percent for Obama and, in general, are a more diverse and liberal generation.

1972 Marked a New Era in Colorado Politics

The death of political activist and campaign consultant Jim Monaghan provides a moment to remember the tumult of the early 1970s when he and a cohort of Baby Boomers, angry about the war (Vietnam), idealistic about civil rights and advocates for the nascent environmental and feminist movements, burst into the national and Colorado political scenes.

As the national Democratic Party establishment collapsed after the 1968 Chicago Convention, new Democrats took over, changed the rules and nominated George McGovern for his ill-fated run against President Nixon.

In Colorado, 1972 was the turning point year with a host of new politicians and activists entering the process and changing the Democratic Party. Environmentalism was the main theme, and the 1972 referendum to stop a bipartisan establishment proposal to host the Winter Olympics was the vehicle. When it passed by a resounding 61 percent, it marked the state’s change in direction and became the platform that allowed legislative backbencher Dick Lamm to emerge as a serious candidate for governor and push aside longtime Democrats, Mark Hogan and Tom Farley.

It was Monaghan who committed the coup de gras on the party establishment by managing the defeat in a party primary of Democratic Congressman Wayne Aspinall, the long-time chair of the House Interior and Insular Affairs Committee, and the bête noir of the environmental community. Monaghan was 25 years old at the time; Aspinall had been in Congress 24 years.

Nationally, it was Watergate and the Nixon resignation in 1974 that brought Democrats everywhere to power. The new team was ready in Colorado: Dick Lamm became governor; Gary Hart, George McGovern’s campaign manager, became U.S. Senator; Tim Wirth, environmental advocate, won a U.S. congressional seat; and Sam Brown, organizer of the 1969 Moratorium against the war, was elected State Treasurer.

Although this group’s control over the state’s politics during the next forty years waxed and waned, they were the new Democratic Party.

In Six Years, Coloradans Go From No to Yes on Civil Unions and Marijuana Use

In 2006, Colorado voters rejected civil unions and approved a constitutional ban on gay marriage. They also defeated a recreational marijuana initiative by 59 percent.

Today, Colorado is one of the first states where voters legalized recreational marijuana and a newly installed Democratic legislature approved civil unions. Polls show a majority of Coloradans approve both. What happened in a decade?

Colorado voters and opinion in the country shifted during the decade on legalizing gay relationships and the use of marijuana and, most importantly, new faces came into the electorate.

Volumes are being written concerning the extraordinary shift in opinion on gay rights, including the effectiveness of repositioning what was considered a mental or moral defect or, at best, a bizarre lifestyle choice into a civil right. Keep in mind, Colorado’s ban on gay marriage and defeat of civil unions in 2006 wasn’t unique. In 2004, banning gay marriage was a national movement and, by most accounts, contributed to the re-election of President Bush. 

But even at that point, a powerful countermovement was taking hold, led by advocates, like Tom Gill and his gay rights foundation, and political contributions here and around the country, powered by frequent and sympathetic treatments in film, television and books, and advanced by gays’ personal affirmations; i.e., coming out.

Peoples’ opinions shift due to personal experiences and relationships. Today, almost everyone knows someone who is gay – a friend, relative or coworker – or sees them perform often at the top of their art, profession and increasingly their sport. National polls show gay marriage now has majority support.

Marijuana legalization has not had the same level of attention from activists or media, but it has effectively used medical marijuana as a platform to argue the drug is not dangerous and it’s no worse than alcohol and should be treated the same.

The other significant factor creating political change in Colorado since the early 2000s has been the surge of new voters in the electorate, which has moved the state to the left. More than 422,000 voters have joined the roles since President Bush won re-election with 100,000 votes in 2004 and President Obama did so with 138,000 votes in 2012 – many of those new voters helped gay rights and marijuana use reach majority acceptance.

Colorado Politics Leads the Nation in Change

At the recent national conference of polling professionals, Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic and National Journal political guru, said the 2012 election was a turning point event for how the two parties conducted national campaigns, how the media reports and tracks them (polling), and the strategies of the two parties in assembling their respective coalitions.

He called it a “brick through the window.”

Colorado has also witnessed an extraordinary change since the last Republican president victory in 2004 and Barack Obama’s and the local Democratic power sweep in 2012. And to a large extent, many factors that put Colorado Democrats in power presaged what would change in the country. It may also be true that 2012 will mark a turning point in Colorado’s politics and campaigns.

It was only eight years ago that Republicans went into the 2004 presidential election holding the Colorado governorship, both senate seats, five of the seven congressional seats and both houses of the state legislature.  But, on Election Day in November, the first signs of the shift were apparent. Although President Bush carried the state, Democrats won a senate and a congressional seat with the Salazar brothers and both houses of the legislature by narrow margins.

By the 2012 election, the Colorado Republican Party was devastated. It had already lost both senate seats and the governorship. It did control four of the seven congressional districts after being down to just three seats, with a slight recovery in 2010. However, President Obama won re-election by a convincing margin and Democrats’ control of the legislature was by large margins in each House, leading to the most liberal legislature in Colorado memory.

What caused the Colorado shift in tandem with, and somewhat ahead of, the national Democratic recovery from its low points in the early 2000s will be the subject of a series of blog posts.