Aurora Will Have Mayor’s Election

The Tauer era will come to an end this year with an election of a new mayor of Aurora in November.

Ed Tauer and his father, Paul, are the only mayors Aurora has known since the citywide elected office was created in 1995.

The frontrunner for the job is former Aurora City Councilman and political activist Steve Hogan. He began politics as a Democrat, but is now a Republican. At his announcement, he had already collected $100,000 in contributions. This may be another low-key mayor’s race.

See Aurora Sentinel articles:
Stafford on mayor’s race: There’s more work to be done
Sandvall in the running for Aurora mayor; council hopefuls file
Debbie Stafford entering Aurora mayoral race
Hogan announces mayoral campaign raised $100,000
Psychotherapist Davis enters files for Aurora mayoral race

See Denver Post blog entry:
Frazier mulling mayoral run in Aurora

Celebrity Status and Strength in a Primary are Very Different Things

In a 9News interview on Donald Trump and the birther issue, I pointed out:

“‘He [Trump] is tied at the top of the polls and there are some polls that say he is ahead,’ 9NEWS Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said. ‘As of today, he changed the dynamic because he has become a huge distraction and interestingly, those other relatively unknown and less strong candidates right now are almost dying of lack of oxygen. The entire press corps is up in New Hampshire following Trump around. He may end up being a very marginal candidate, but as of today, he is probably the number one candidate.’

Ciruli believes Trump’s polling numbers are tied to his celebrity status and high name recognition, two things that may not carry him.

‘Celebrity status versus strength in a primary are very, very different things,’ Ciruli said. ‘On balance, his name identification, those positives and negatives don't fit presidential politics. He has more baggage than he has benefit.’

Early success in presidential polling doesn't always translate to long-term success. Four years ago, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had a significant lead among Republicans considering a run for the White House. By Jan. 30, 2008, Giuliani’s failures in the primaries and sagging polling numbers forced him to withdraw from the race.”

Reapportionment Goes to Court?

The Democrats look aggressive with their controversial reapportionment maps that tried to create competitive districts. Their strategy was to use competition to give them a better shot at two additional seats out of seven. But, the map ignored communities of interest and had little support.

The Republicans, in an effort to hold and improve what they have (4 seats), just modestly moved the lines. Unfortunately, political missteps at the end made them look politically self-serving and confused.

Unless leadership makes a deal, the process will head to the courts. It is unlikely the Democrats’ competitive theory will prevail, but the judge’s changes to balance population will likely not be as favorable to Republicans as their maps.

Get-Out-The-Vote

In a likely low turnout election, with no overarching personality or theme motivating voters, get-out-the-vote techniques become more important. Systematic, repetitive voter contacts are used to remind voters to fill out their mail-in ballots.

Each candidate is working to turn out his or her vote.

• Phone banks
• Robo calls with known personages
• Direct mail
• Follow-up calls to identified voters who haven’t returned ballots
• Late endorsements put in mail/robo calls
• Community events
• Walk neighborhoods
• TV

“This could be a race decided by a few thousand votes on May 3, because partially it looks like very few people are voting,” 9News Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said. (9News interview, April 27, 2011)

See news articles:
Denver Post – Hard-working mayoral candidates not mailing it in for all-mail election
9News – 3 lead candidates fight for 2 spots in Denver mayoral race

Turnout Goes Down

Denver mayoral voter turnout has declined since the hard-fought elections of 1983 and 1991.

This year’s new mail-back election makes predicting turnout difficult. Active voters are about the same this year as 2003 when 113,520 out of 244,398 voters, or 46 percent, turned out.

In 2003, 18 percent of voters used absentee mail-back voting.  This year, nearly all voting will be mail-back.

UCLA Chancellor Fights Back

Gene Block, UCLA Chancellor, takes off the gloves. He reminds California politicians they have benefited from the UC system and now have irresponsibly abandoned it.

UCLA also has an aggressive alumni website directing the alumni toward political action.

Go to UCLA website here

Hickenlooper was up 10 Points in Last Poll, Won by 21

Candidate John Hickenlooper was 10 points up in the April 23 poll taken for the Denver Post 13 days before the May 6 general election in 2003. Ari Zavaras had faded to third place with 12 percent, and Don Mares, the City Auditor, was in a solid second. Legislator Penfield Tate surged, and although he didn’t make third, his move gave the final days a bit of drama.

Hickenlooper won by 21 points over Mares.

This year, the only published poll (a Denver Post a robo poll) shows the top three candidates bunched at 22 percent each for Chris Romer and James Mejia, with Michael Hancock in third (18%). Final momentum or a candidate stall could open the race up by 5 to 10 points between now and May 3, given the high percentage of undecided and weakly decided voters.