Grading Bill Ritter

How would you grade Bill Ritter? Will the one-term governor leave a legacy or be forgotten quickly?

Tim Hoover and Lynn Bartels wrote a balanced piece in Sunday’s Denver Post (12-26-10), and I weighed in with a commentary that suggested his dislike of politics and lack of skill at it turned into a fatal flaw that undermined his agenda and contributed to his feeling the job was not right for him.

How Would You Grade Ritter?

A to F

Public communication

Legislative tactician

Policy strategist

Political skills

Organizational skills (government and interest groups)

Emotional strength and balance

Other

Hickenlooper Stays Out of Mayor’s Race

No doubt the economic and political interests that helped promote and sustain John Hickenlooper as mayor will begin to pick sides in the upcoming May election. But, Hickenlooper wisely is keeping his confidences. As I told Lynn Bartels, his endorsement would be powerful, but involve him in a tough fight in which his term of office would become an issue.

See Denver Post article: Gov-elect Hickenlooper silent on who should replace him as Denver mayor

Democrats Hold Senate Seats in West – Shift Races From Referendum to Contests

The Republican wave swept eight western congressional seats, but failed to capture any senate seats. They picked up two governor seats, one in New Mexico, which was competitive, and Wyoming, which was a foregone conclusion.

The following chart lists western states top to bottom from most Republican to most Democratic in the 2008 presidential election. Wyoming is the top of the list where Republicans picked up the governorship. California, with its lack of any partisan change in the midterm, is at the bottom.

The most competitive western states are in the middle of the chart. And indeed, Colorado featured the nation’s closest senate race and Nevada saw Harry Reid stay afloat after a titanic battle.
 
The recent Pacific Chapter for the American Association of Public Opinion Research conference had several panels that reviewed the midterm election results (http://www.papor.org/).
 
The lack of partisan movement in western states’ senate seats was seen as a product of races that were shifted from referendums on Washington, President Obama and national Democrats to contests between two candidates. Huge money and negative advertising put the contests on campaign platforms that rose above the national Republican wave.

 Some of the Tea Party senate nominees had vulnerabilities that could not be overcome by massive Republican and conservative advertising budgets. Sharon Angle in Nevada and Ken Buck in Colorado were both ahead at various points in their respective campaigns, yet lost due to verbal and positioning missteps and weaknesses.
 
The six senate seats that changed hands were in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. While each state had specific issues and candidate features, partisanship and the sour economy appeared to dominate. But a part of the West’s resistance to the Republican wave was the West’s weaker partisan loyalty and more independent voters. Those voters are more susceptible to attack advertising, which dominated the campaigns, and less influenced by partisan or, in the election, anti-partisan trends.
 
California is a special case in that some of the political rigidity at the congressional level is explained by decades of redistricting manipulation. Also, the exit poll showed 22 percent of the electorate was Hispanic, and they overwhelmingly voted Democrat. But like other western Democrats, both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer spent mightily and attacked incessantly to shift the races from referendums to contests.

Compromise on Reapportionment

The commitment of legislative leaders to attempt a compromise plan on redistricting Colorado’s congressional districts is historic. The courts have been necessary to resolve most redistricting battles after recent censuses. Creating more competitive districts is not in the interest of incumbents or partisans. Generally, plans protect incumbents and attempt to shift sufficient partisan voters into Colorado’s few competitive seats to one or the other party’s advantage. Recent performance shows the most competitive districts have been the 3rd and 4th.

The average district will have about 261,000 voters (redistricting is based on total population and there are different registration rates in each district). Denver’s 1st district has the least registered voters and the Arapahoe/Douglas County’s 6th has the most.

Unaffiliated voters tend to shift between parties more than partisans, but also tend to have liberal and conservative preferences, for example, unaffiliated voters in the 2nd district lean left and those in the 6th lean right.

Minor changes are easier than major changes, and given that Colorado will not get an additional district this year, it should be easier.

See Denver Post article: Measured approach to redistricting tried
and Denver Post article: Census ranks Colorado as ninth-fastest-growing state

New Political Team – More Partisan Balance

Colorado begins 2011 with a new political team and more partisan balance. The Democratic era in Colorado, which began with the victory of the Salazar bothers, Ken and John in 2004, closed this year with John Salazar’s loss of his U.S. Congressional seat. Republicans swept everything below the top two races, governor and U.S. Senate, which Democrats continue to hold.

The Republicans’ control of the U.S. House with two new Republican congressmen from Colorado will be the party’s most valuable platform for new leaders and to change the direction of national policy. Control of the Colorado House of Representatives will be the strongest local stage to challenge weakened Democratic dominance and groom new leaders.

As the chart shows, Colorado went from an overwhelmingly Republican state starting with Gov. Bill Owens at the top of the ticket, basking in a 63 percent re-election victory in 2002, to a near Democratic monopoly with Bill Ritter’s 17-point election in 2006 and Barack Obama’s unprecedented 9-point presidential win in 2008.

As the 2012 election cycle begins, Colorado is up for grabs. Obama will start off his re-election below 50 percent in approval (midterm Colorado exit poll gave Obama a 47% approval) and, although Hickenlooper has the potential to be a popular governor, he will likely not be very partisan.

What is the Future of the Salazars?

Ken Salazar was a major force in Colorado politics and policy for two decades, but his absence from the state and his brother’s loss of the 3rd Congressional District race raises questions about his political future and the strength of the name as a political brand.

The Secretary of the Interior job is always controversial. It has high-profile, often controversial, issues with powerful conflicting interests. Ken was burdened in 2010 with having to manage a Katrina-sized environmental disaster in the Gulf.

Also importantly, cabinet secretaries rise and fall with their bosses, and President Obama had a terrible 2010. Salazar appears to remain in Obama’s favor and his political base in Colorado and Hispanic heritage are important assets for an administrator going into a tough re-election.

John Salazar could stay in government service. He claims he may run again for congress in 2012. How the District is redistricted will be a factor. Also, 2012 could be another difficult Democratic year. But mostly, John doesn’t have a nine-to-five temperament. He seems most comfortable with his own style and pace. Congress offered that, but so does his ranch.

Ken still has many friends in Colorado, but he could serve as Interior Secretary for six more years, and local politics does move on. His return to Colorado may be more Hank Brown-like; i.e., serving in high level jobs, then running for partisan office.

See also New York Times article: After Tough year, Salazar Brand May be Tarnished

Country Rejects Pelosi, But California’s Political System Makes No Change

The Republicans’ midterm wave, which swept across the country, splashed into the Colorado River and ran out of momentum.  The record 63 congressional seat victory failed to include a single seat in California.  And, although western Democrats did better than the rest of the country holding off Senate challenges – for example, in Washington, Nevada and Colorado –they gave up eight congressional seats in six states.

The Democratic and liberal tilt of California’s political system and culture was a subject of the recent PAPOR conference (see blog post of December 7).

Large states in the east, midwest and south with Democratic and Republican majorities, including several battleground states, all made some accommodation to the shift in the national mood, for example: 5 seats in Ohio, 4 in Pennsylvania, 6 in New York, 4 in Illinois, 4 in Florida, 3 in Tennessee, 3 in Virginia and 3 in Texas shifted Republican, and as noted, 0 in California.

So, as the rest of the nation rejected Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership and removed the California Democratic delegation from its position of power, California voters re-elected them and made no partisan change.

And, of course, the remaining Democratic House caucus elected Pelosi minority leader ostensibly to ensure liberal interests were protected in the new political environment and with a president prone to compromise.