2010 Starts With Republican Advantage

The first week in January radically changed the Colorado gubernatorial race and affected the entire Democratic ticket. The surprise withdrawal of Governor Bill Ritter led to the likely nomination of Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper as the Democratic standbearer.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Colorado Republicans retain an advantage, first measured in September, in the U.S. Senate race. It also indicates Scott McInnis’ advantage against Ritter has transferred to the leading Democratic nominees in the governor’s race, but the lead is smaller against John Hickenlooper.

Republican frontrunner Jane Norton maintains her lead over U.S. Senator Michael Bennet and his challenger Andrew Romanoff.


Rasmussen polls tend to lean toward Republicans because they are weighted based on a low turnout model, and Republicans are more likely to turn out. The approach reflects an assumption – reasonable, but not certain – that the 2010 midterm election will be a lower turnout, and Republicans will be a higher percentage of total voters in 2010 than in the 2008 presidential election.

Colorado’s Extraordinary Decade From Backwater to Battleground

The Denver Post’s New Year’s edition carried my retrospective on the last decade in Colorado.

• Colorado swings from presidential campaign backwater to battleground
• Colorado shifts from dark red to purple to deep blue in six years
• Does the swing state swing again? Colorado Democrats now play defense

Bennet - Running Behind Norton

U.S. Senator Michael Bennet has failed to make much of an impression with Colorado voters – hence, is subject to the vicissitudes of the national Democratic Party, which is fairing poorly today. In a new statewide poll, he loses to little know former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.

Rasmussen polls are known for tight voter-intention screens and weighing that make them more conservative. But, in 2010, that approach is prudent. Voter turnout will be down. Democratic enthusiasm is at a low level while Republicans are more unified and enthusiastic than in recent years.


Bennet is only slightly ahead of Andrew Romanoff, who also loses to Norton.

As mentioned, Bennet has a weak favorability impression with a high negative.

Bad Timing

On the same day Stephanie Villafuerte dropped her bid to become Colorado U.S. Attorney, Rasmussen Reports published a poll showing Governor Bill Ritter’s approval rating still below 50 percent and losing to Republican rival Scott McInnis 48 percent to 40 percent. Ritter’s approval has been below 50 percent for a year, and that is the second poll showing him losing re-election.


The Villafuerte controversy was largely created by the decision to nominate her for U.S. Attorney – another in a long list of political missteps by Bill Ritter.

Conservatives are Largest Ideological Bloc – Independents Become More Conservative

Conservatives have overtaken self-identified moderates to become the largest ideological group in American politics. Two-fifths (40%) of the adult public identify themselves as conservative. Moderates are at 36 percent and liberals at 20 percent.

The number of independents describing themselves as conservative has increased the past year, from 29 percent in 2008 to 35 percent in October 2009 (see figure below).


Also, independent voters’ image of Democrats has declined slightly since November 2008. Forty-seven percent of independents rated the Democratic Party favorably, and now 40 percent are positive about Democrats.

When the ideology of the two parties and independents is analyzed, Republicans remain the most conservative party (72%). Democrats are more closely divided between liberals (37%) and moderates (39%) with 22 percent conservative.

(See Gallup poll)

Obama’s Favorable Rating Drops

Voters’ favorable impression of President Barack Obama has dropped sharply since a high of 78 percent favorable after the inaugural to 66 percent in July to 53 percent in October. The drop, especially among independent voters, was very sharp since July as health care legislation came to the forefront. Republicans also began to rally against the President at that point.


One of Obama’s problems is that his policies are now seen by a majority of the public as “mostly liberal” (54%). A third consider his policies “mostly moderate” (34%) and, not surprising, only 7 percent consider them “mostly conservative.” In January, voters were evenly divided between labeling the policies he was likely to pursue “liberal” (43%) and “moderate” (45%).

(See Gallup poll)

Generic Ballot Test Shows Democrats in Trouble for 2010

A series of Gallup polls released around the Nov. 4 election provides context for the election results, which show Republicans regaining the initiative.

Generic Ballot
One of the best predictors of national partisan preferences without the influence of personalities is the generic ballot test for the House of Representatives. After its poor showing in the November election, Democrats now trail Republicans in the test.


Because Republican turnout tends to be better in lower turnout mid-term elections, the Democratic spread on the generic ballot test needs to be wider if Democrats are to maintain their position or add seats.

History indicates that Republicans should pick up seats in 2010 as the party out of power, although, there were exceptions in 1998 and 2002 when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush defied history and gained seats in the House for their respective parties.

1994 and 2004 Blow-out Elections
The two great examples of anti-presidential party blow outs were 1994 when Republicans took control of the House after a four decade drought and 2006 when the Democrats came back.

The generic ballot shows Democrats well ahead during most of 2006, including the last poll in October. Democrats won 31 seats in November. In 1994, Republicans and Democrats were even in the October poll, and Republicans gained 53 seats.


The Democratic majority status is endangered. The Democrats picked up 31 seats in 2006 (they had a 7 point final generic ballot spread after the undecided voters were distributed). With a four point deficit as of early October 2009, Democrats could lose 39 seats in 2010 (218 seats are a majority; Democrats have 257 today), but current predictions indicate about 30 seats are at risk.


(See Gallup polls: Generic Ballot and Republicans Edge)