Ritter Suffers From Economic Downturn

The economy is the top issue for Colorado voters and Governor Bill Ritter is losing the vote of confidence on “improving the state’s economy and creating jobs.” In the new Tarrance Group poll of mid-September, only 41 percent of voters approved his performance on the economy, but 53 percent disapproved.

Unfortunately for Ritter, more voters say the state is on the wrong track (48%) than say it’s headed in the right direction (41%). His overall job approval was similar to previous polls. Less than half the state’s voters approve (48%) and nearly as many disapprove (46%).

Although early polls are only snapshots of fast moving rivers, Ritter’s biggest concern must be that 56 percent of the voters in this sample wanted a “new person” elected governor.

One slight good piece of news is that a plurality of voters judge Ritter a moderate and 40 percent call him a liberal. Only 5 percent see him as conservative. It is better to be seen as a moderate in a Colorado general election. This poll had 54 percent of its sample self-identifying as conservative – a high percentage, but those are likely voters. They are older and lean more Republican.


(See Associated Press article)

Obama Endorsement Can Help With Democrats, But Not Statewide

Another poll, this one by well-known Republican pollster Lance Tarrance, shows less than half of Colorado voters approve (48%) President Barack Obama’s job performance, with his disapproval just as high (47%).

Obama’s lowest job approval is on Colorado’s Eastern High Plains (35%) and is especially ominous for newly elected Democratic Congressman Betsy Markey.

But, in Democratic strongholds of Denver and the north suburbs of Boulder and Adams counties, he scores above 67 percent. Hence, assuming Colorado Democrats don’t resent Washington politicians and the Democratic establishment trying to tell them who to vote for, Obama’s endorsement of Senator Michael Bennet should be a help among Democrats, not a hindrance.


(See Denver Post article)

Establishment Candidates Winning Early Primary Test

In a new poll from the Tarrance Group, establishment-endorsed primary candidates Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Jane Norton win their respective primaries in an early test.


Bennet is only ahead of his Democratic opponent, Andrew Romanoff, by 14 percentage points. Early primary polls are notoriously volatile and largely a reflection of early name identification.

Norton is 30 points up on Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. Rumors among Republicans indicate Buck may drop out. If true, Norton is the likely nominee and spared a serious primary. Romanoff will easily make the primary ballot’s 30 percent threshold and be able to run a campaign into the August primary.

Ron Brownstein Sees Western Democrats Losing Their Footing

Ron Brownstein, one of the country’s most astute political reporters, writes in the September 19 National Journal the recent Democratic surge in several western states may be receding.

Colorado is extensively discussed. “‘After the huge surge and taking almost every conceivable seat [in this region], Democrats are now playing defense in an environment that is much less supportive for them than two or four years ago,’ says Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver-based pollster.”

“Ciruli, the independent Denver pollster concurs, saying, ‘Those unaffiliated voters are now in a very ambivalent position and are trending at least somewhat against the president.’”

Early Poll Shows Norton and Romanoff Change Senate Race

Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who entered the Republican primary the third week of September, became the Republican Party’s frontrunner, and in head-to-head comparisons with Democratic Senator Michael Bennet, she leads Bennet by 9 points. Former Democratic Speaker of the Colorado State House, Andrew Romanoff, who entered the race in mid-September, loses to Norton by 8 points.


Norton’s lead is primarily based on a 30-point advantage among unaffiliated voters, which can only be based on a preference for a Republican and some advantage of the well-known name of Norton in Colorado politics (including former Colorado Attorney General and Secretary of the Interior Gail Norton and former gubernatorial candidate and Transportation Department Director Tom Norton. There are several other Nortons known in Colorado political circles).
Norton and Romanoff’s entry in the race launches the 2010 election, and makes Colorado a battleground.

The Hill.com says, “Independent Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli said Bennet is in a different race than he was seven days ago. ‘Prior to this, Bennet was seen as the favored frontrunner largely based on his money potential, a good-to-neutral political environment and a weak Republican field,’ Ciruli said. ‘In all three of those cases, this has become a much more dead-even race.’”

(Also see Denver Post article)

White Working Class Goes to College

Floyd Ciruli, my father, dropped out of the 4th grade of Pleasant View Grade School in Pueblo County. He was always very proud he could read the Pueblo Chieftain and do basic numbers for his business, Ciruli Oil.

I graduated from law school, representing a total of 19 years of formal education, plus numerous graduate classes for various purposes.

The Cirulis weren’t unique. Although my father was in the 4th grade in 1910, even by 1940, 75 percent of adults were high school drop outs (or never made it) and only 5 percent graduated with a 4-year college degree.

In 2007, only 14 percent of the population lacked a high school diploma and 29 percent have a 4-year college degree or higher (54 percent, or half the population, have a degree or some college education).

Although we endlessly want to lower our drop out rate and improve our college graduation rate, we need to recognize how far we have come in mass high school and college education in a couple of generations and half a century.

Bennet Will be in a Major Party Battle

After eight months and in the midst of the Democratic Party’s crack-up over health care, newly appointed Senator Michael Bennet has some assets, but a rapidly growing array of liabilities.

On the asset side, Bennet has shown himself to be smart, hard working and with an organized campaign team whose biggest success has been fundraising (more than $3 million in two quarters).

On the liability side, Bennet is poorly known and now suffering from the blues associated with congress and Washington. The latest circulated Colorado poll shows Bennet with a 9 point deficit in voter approval over disapproval and only 31 percent of voters approving his performance.


Bennet was, of course, hoping to use that surfeit of money to create an image of moderate leadership against a still unimpressive Republican field. Unfortunately, one of the state’s most visible underemployed Democrats, Andrew Romanoff, will challenge him. Now, Bennet will have to spend some of that money defending himself this winter and spring.

The race is hard to handicap today, but if Romanoff is ready for a real fight, he has some advantages as the non-establishment candidate, dissed by unpopular Governor Bill Ritter and with a decent claim to party support for years of legislative and ballot issue leadership.

See The Hill article