Early Poll Has Democrats in Lead in Georgia Primary

A new poll shows Democrats ahead in Georgia’s Senate races. So what you say? That’s what pre-election polls said in Iowa, Maine and North Carolina.

That’s true. But, they also got the races right in Colorado, Arizona and Montana, and by Election Day, the polls narrowed or varied enough in many contested states to be declared toss-ups. Most importantly, for the next three weeks Georgia will be a political story in the country, the stakes are high and there will be multiple polls to consider. So, let’s start.

The pollster is SurveyUSA, which conducted a couple of Colorado polls during the U.S. Senate race for 9KUSA and Colorado Politics. They captured the Hickenlooper victory close to the June 30 primary and were in alignment with other polls and the results in the November 3 general election.

This will likely be a more difficult electorate to estimate in terms of turnout. It’s unique – a double primary – after a polarizing close presidential race and for control of the U.S. Senate. Plus, there is a defiant President railing about being cheated by Georgia election officials. The assumption is that Democrats start behind. Except for Joe Biden’s 11,000-vote win, most statewide Democrats struggle with rural and working class voters and not getting the needed margins of Hispanic voters or exceptional Black turnout.

The poll results from SurveyUSA (583 LV, 11-30-20) are: Jon Ossoff (D) 50% to David Perdue (R) 48% and Raphael Warnock (D) 52% to Kelly Loeffler (R) 45% (SurveyUSA).

The main conclusions from the poll:

• Loeffler is running weaker than Perdue
• Warnock is running better with moderates and women than Ossoff
• The Ossoff vs. Perdue race is close, but Ossoff polled better than Perdue in the run up election, yet ran 86,000 votes behind him on Nov. 3

Market Crosses 30000 in year of Historic Disruption

The Dow Jones stock average has just reached a milestone after one of the most tumultuous years in market history. On November 24, 2020, three weeks after the defeat of President Donald Trump’s reelection became widely accepted, the market managed to cross the 30000 level for a year-to-date gain of nearly 5 percent, which seems modest, but reflects an incredible rollercoaster since it hit 29000 on January 15, 2020 (see chart below).

President Trump, of course, expected to ride the extraordinary market to reelection. He bragged about the market incessantly; told voters at rallies that “like him or hate him” the market is up and their IRA’s required reelecting him; and offered to presidential chronicler Bob Woodward, “how about that market?” when confronted with the impact of the pandemic, the deaths and the disruption on his prospects. Unfortunately for the President, the market ride was not smooth and his handling of COVID-19 – the primary disrupter – was judged mostly unsatisfactory.

Trump used the market from his inauguration in January 20, 2017 to January 15, 2020 as his main metric of success. It rose 9000 points, or 45 percent. The ascent continued in early 2020 to a high of 29551 on February 12 when the news of the severity of the virus led to two of the greatest one-day declines in history. The circuit breakers went off on March 12 and 16 with a combined 5349 points of loss as the market plunged to its low for the year of 18591 on March 23.

Unfortunately for Trump, the market gave back the entire three-year gain and began what was seen as a bear market (20% drop after an 11-year bull market run) and the start of an assumed recession with unemployment equal to or greater than the Great Recession 2008 and 2009 (14.7% and still at 6.9%).

Surprisingly, in spite of the economic disruption with deaths of COVID-19 over 270,000; civic disorder after a series of high-profile cases of police-civilian violence; and a hostile, hard-fought presidential campaign, the market plowed ahead, mostly driven by the shift to technology, largely adapting to the new pandemic economy (NASDAQ up 39% YTD), low interest rates and trillions of dollars from the Federal Reserve and Congress.

Since November 2 (Monday), the DOW has risen 13 percent, from 26501 to 30046 on news of a successful election, a transition starting, multiple positive tests of vaccines and a signal of stability in financial management with the appointment of Fed Chair Janet Yellen to be Biden’s Treasury Secretary.

Read blogs:

Hellish Bad Quarter – Bear Market Starts and Recession and Record Unemployment on the Way

Crashes of 1987 and 2020 – Two Black Mondays

Dow Fires Past 29000, Yet Trump Struggles

Trump Rally Breaks 20000 in Near Record Speed

Nov. 20 – Trump Election Resistance Suffers Major Blow

It is not surprising that Rudy Giuliani, acting as President Trump’s lead attorney, was responsible for the event that put the failure of Trump’s legal strategy on the front page and in cable networks’ lead stories. It was encapsulated in one of the most bizarre and embarrassing press conferences in recent times. In quick succession highlighting the futility of the President’s strategy, a recount in Georgia was completed and Georgia and Michigan certified the results. Shortly after, November 23, the GSA, which had refused to authorize funding for the transition, relented, and Trump then ordered agency and White House cooperation. However, a week later, Trump continued to label the election a “massive fraud” and a winnable fight.

It became most clear that the Trump-Giuliani strategy was doomed when the Wall Street Journal’s board editorial turned against it in the weekend edition (Nov. 21-22). Peggy Noonan and Gerald Seib, the paper’s main established editorialists, then weighed in that he should take his successes and stop the damage to democracy and the Republican Party.

The media judgement was aligned with public opinion. Most voters (59%) believed the election had been “run and administered well” and that their vote had been “correctly counted” (88%). Joe Biden was getting positive ratings for his conduct twice as high as Donald Trump (62% to 31%) (Pew 2020).

Trump being Trump, of course, surrendered in substance when he ordered cooperation, but fought on rhetorically on Twitter and in the media. One place the technique worked was his mostly online legal defense fund, which raised $170 million since the election.

AMLO Hasn’t Congratulated Biden

Third Informative Assembly,"
July 30, 2006 | Wikipedia photo

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), President Donald Trump’s authoritarian populist counterpart in Mexico, has just highlighted his strident tone to governing with his refusal to congratulate Joe Biden. It is not surprising. He has governed with a stubborn, confrontational tone. Under his leadership, the virus has surged, the economy tanked and crime spread nationwide. He only has one term, but the relationship with the U.S. in the next four years could be painful. 

His attitude and governing styles was seen in his close election in 2006. It was a very controversial election to replace the first non-PRI candidate, Vicente Fox, with his preferred candidate, Felipe Calderón, AMLO protested the close vote of about 250,000 out of 41 million cast by declaring himself “Legitimate President.” He then led months of protests around the country, but especially in Mexico City and the central square, The Zócalo, and the main boulevard, Paseo de la Reforma. The country was in a governing crisis up to the December 1 inauguration of Calderón. Most observers believe it lingered as a blow to functioning of Mexico’s newly established democracy and has never fully recovered. A lesson for America’s current election drama.

"Third Informative Assembly" called by
Andrés Manuel López Obrador,
July 30, 2006 | Wikipedia photo

Read blogs:

López Obrador Will Win and Mexico Will Lose

López Obrador Comes to D.C. to Celebrate NATFA II - Alone

The United Nations: Japan and U.S. in the Suga, Biden Era

The United Nations was sidelined for the U.S. the last four years by the America First policy. On December 9, two experts on the United Nations will discuss its importance in foreign policy and the opportunities and challenges the new administrations in Japan and the U.S. face to use the agency effectively.

Professor Tim Sisk of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and director of the Institute of Comparative and Regional Studies will be joined by Professor Akiko Fukushima, a Senior Fellow of the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, to discuss their latest work as it relates to the UN’s potential contribution to addressing a host of global problems. Professor Floyd Ciruli will moderate the discussion.

The program is supported by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

2:00 PM MT

December 9, 2020

REGISTER HERE

From Arapahoe to Wyoming Border, Republican Commissioners are Becoming Rare

Demographic and partisan changes and four years of Donald J. Trump have left only a handful of Republican county commissioners from the Arapahoe County line to the Wyoming border. In this last election, Republicans lost control of the Arapahoe County board and have no members on the Larimer or Jefferson counties’ boards. Only Weld County remains a Republican stronghold.

In Arapahoe County, the loss of Republican Commissioner Kathleen Conti and near loss of Jeff Baker (he held on by slightly more than 100 votes on November 20) will cost the Republicans control of the board with only Baker and near term-limited Nancy Sharpe. Jefferson County’s board has been shifting Democratic in recent years, but today, there are no Republican members. Possibly the most dramatic 2020 shift was in Larimer County where a board controlled by Republicans since the late 1990s is now controlled by Democrats, with a majority of women.

Denver and Broomfield city councils are nominally nonpartisan, but have detectible leans. 

Video Now Available on Foreign Policy Impact of Election: U.S. and Japan

Hear Japan’s leading political analyst and television commentator, Professor Toshihiro Nakayama, describe the U.S. election night results from Japan’s perspective. He was joined in the conversation on the election’s impact on U.S.’s and Japan’s foreign policy by former Ambassador Christopher Hill.

The Nov. 11 program was supported by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.

WATCH VIDEO

As President-elect Joe Biden selects his foreign policy team, hear an analysis of the challenges and opportunities for a new policy in Asia.

See blogs:

Japanese TV Political Analyst Compares 2016 and 2020 Election Nights

President-elect Biden Warns China in First Talk with New Japanese Prime Minister