Colorado Politics: Roy Moore’s Fate Shows Character Counts — While Control of the House Teeters

Sex scandals will be a political topic in the 2018 battle for control of the U.S. Congress. Roy Moore and Alabama highlighted character of the candidates and President Trump will be factors in the upcoming contests. Read my latest opinion piece in Colorado Politics, the state’s political website.

Roy Moore’s fate shows character counts — while control of the House teeters

My Dec. 6 blog on the Alabama Senate race opened with, “Alabama Judge Roy Moore is in the first post-Harvey Weinstein, Matt Lauer, et.al. sex scandal election.” His loss in a state that Republicans have held a near total lock on since the early 1990s was a powerful demonstration that character counts. Because of the uniqueness of the election and difficulty of capturing the turnout patterns of major constituencies; i.e., African Americans, rural whites, Millennials, and suburban women, final polls and conventional wisdom, including Democratic commentators, thought Moore was likely to eke out a win. Polls in the last week showed Moore winning by 4 to 9 points, except that the last reported poll conducted by Fox News had Doug Jones up by 10 points. Most observers thought the Fox News poll was an outlier, not a harbinger. But Jones won with about 21,000 votes, or 1.5 percent, of the 1.3 million votes cast.

The following are some conclusions from the election.

Paul Ryan Quits?
The election has significant impact for Republicans as the 2018 contests begin. The first casualty of the Alabama result may be Paul Ryan. He sees the election, as do most political observers, as a mirror image of the 63-seat disaster for Democrats in 2010. Ryan does not intend on being the minority leader, defending the ever embattled and seldom grateful Donald Trump. Clearly, the Alabama result begins to change the calculation for both House and Senate races. And, of course, some of the Republican problems in Alabama have not gone away. In spite of his stunning loss, Steve Bannon continues to recruit anti-Republican establishment candidates and the party’s Trump divisions are affecting races, such as in Arizona and Nevada. Read more…

Former White House Strategist Steve Bannon shakes hands
with embattled Senate candidate Roy Moore at a
 rally in Alabama | Jonathan Bachman/Reuters

Dow Hits Six 1000-point Increases Since Trump Election

In a record of 23 days, the Dow crossed 25000 on Thursday, January 4, three trading days into 2018.

Is the market reaching a top? The analysts are mixed. World economies mostly remain robust, but inflation lurks and this is the age of disruption. Is it the end of the greatest bull market since WWII, with stock prices high and a downturn imminent or is the market in the middle of a worldwide expansion at a sweet spot for inflation (low), interests rates (still low) and commodity prices (like oil)?

The Trump boom has produced two record quick 1000-point increases. Thirty-four days on March 1 when 21000 was crossed and Thursday, 23-day holiday barn burner. The last 20-day increase was in the dot-com boom of 1999 when the market hit 11000 in 24 days. Although the market ended the year at a record gain of 25 percent, the fifth year in a row with double-digit gains, the Dow peaked on January 14, 2000, meandered, and then plunged 40 percent to 7200 in 2002. It took 7 years to gain another 1000 and hit 12000 after the dot-com burst. Is there a crash in 2018?

Market at Record High

The economy and market had a supercharged year. Both the U.S. and world stock indexes reached historic highs.

• The American government helped with stability in the Fed with transition from well-respected Janet Yellen to a similarly disposed, Jerome Powell.
• The growth-oriented Trump administration and Republican Congress helped the market with promises of deregulation and lower taxes. Central banks and governments around the world were market- and growth-oriented, helping to encourage and synchronize recovery from the 2008-9 great recession.
• Bad things either didn’t happen or the consequences were absorbed without much disruption. A pro-EU French government was elected; Brexit has yet to damage UK markets; China slowed, but maintains growth; hurricanes, floods and fires were short-term effects; and the world’s hot spots were more about rhetoric than confrontation. The major fight in Syria and Iraq has ended reasonably well.

• The technology sector boomed with new applications for communication, entertainment, retail and transportation:  FANG, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google.

Analysts mostly missed the 2017 25 percent surge in the Dow (28% in the NASDAQ). Now, they mostly see a positive, but less exuberant in 2018.

Romer Recognized for LA Unified Building Program

Roy Romer is about to turn 90 and just got recognized for his work in 2000 when he became the superintendent of one of the largest and most unmanageable school districts in the country – LA Unified.

The Los Angeles City Council honored him for his well-regarded six-year tour in which he used his business and political background to focus on desperately needed capital projects. He was responsible for building 131 new schools. Always a salesman, he talked LA voters into three bond initiatives.

His quote in Colorado Politics was vintage Romer:

“I was over 70, I was unemployed, I needed a job. Having served 12 years as Colorado’s governor, you’ve got to look hard to find a better job than that,” a smiling Romer, 89, told the crowd that packed council chambers. He added, “I have 22 grandchildren. There is no higher value in my system than to enable a person to learn and to grow and to be all they can be. I didn’t work harder all my life than the six years, seven years I spent here.”

Former Colorado Gov. Roy Romer thanks Los Angeles City Council who
honored  him for his work as superintendent of the LA Unified  School
District, Dec. 13, 2017 | Colorado Politics/LA City Council video screengrab 

See Colorado Politics: LA City Council honors former Colorado Gov. Roy Romer for accomplishments as school superintendent

A Xanax-type of Year

When Americans were asked in mid-December to rate what events that happened in 2017 that were “most significant and important” to them personably, they rated highest the Las Vegas shooting; terror attacks in New York; the hurricanes, floods and wild fires; and the Trump inauguration. All mostly high-anxiety producing events (WSJ/NBC News, Dec. 15, 2017).

Also in December, Gallup asked what was the “top problem” in 2017 and dissatisfaction with government rated first. Health care, race relations, immigration and the need to unite the country were next.

Hickenlooper and Ciruli Talk Water

What will be the Hickenlooper legacy on water policy and development? Floyd Ciruli and Governor John Hickenlooper will review the administration’s accomplishments and what the Governor believes the next administration needs to do.

Colorado Water Congress 2018
Annual Convention

Thursday Luncheon
12:00 pm to 1:15 pm
January 25, 2018

Keynote Speaker
Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

Moderator: Floyd Ciruli, Ciruli Associates 
As we enter the final year of the Hickenlooper Administration, what are the expectations? It has been nearly 4 years since Governor set in motion the process to develop a balanced Colorado Water Plan. Virtually every sector of Colorado’s water community engaged in the work. All things considered, did we achieve the underlying goals? This interactive session will feature an opportunity to have a conversation with the Governor. What are the next steps for a new administration?

Colorado Politics – Could Donald Trump be Heading for Re-election?

Donald Trump made it through 2017 with some accomplishments and a massive amount of disruption of the expected behavior of the White House and the President. No doubt, the show will continue in full force into 2018.

In a column in the state’s leading political website, I discuss if Trump could be headed for re-election.

Trump Heading for Re-election?

Rather than speculate about Donald Trump’s re-election chances, audiences at recent speech engagements all seem to have an answer to the same question: Will Donald Trump make it a full four years? The discussion produces considerable anxiety for both his supporters and his many and very vocal detractors.

The following is a running commentary from a slide I use in the presentations on the various scenarios that could sideline Trump before the 2020 election. It also includes possible options in the election itself.

Impeachment. Could he be impeached is asked most often, followed by the likelihood of Trump’s death. Neither is likely. Assuming partisanship dominates the process, the Democrats would need to win the House in the 2018 midterm elections. It will be their best chance since losing it in 2010. If they were to win 24 House seats, they could bring an indictment, but with 67 votes required for conviction in the Senate, it appears a futile effort. Democrats would have to decide if it would be a distraction to their effort to defeat Trump in 2020. Everyone recalls that the major loser in the Bill Clinton impeachment was Newt Gingrich, who lost his speakership in the poor Republican showing in the 1998 midterms. Read more…