DeGette Feels the Bern

Rep. Diana DeGette

Representative Diana DeGette drew a primary challenger at the South High School First Congressional District convention last Saturday. It is her first primary since her election in 1996.

In a convention solidly in Bernie Sanders’ presidential camp, DeGette, as a Clinton super delegate, tried to finesse it, but was called out and challenged.

Although the candidate is purely symbolic and claims to be a global warming advocate, it shows the passion of the Sanders’ delegates. Also, primaries for long-serving incumbents are often a sign they should think about their next office or retirement.

Schwartz Takes on Tipton

Congressman Scott Tipton, who was cruising to a quiet re-election, just picked up a very formidable
opponent – Gail Schwartz.

Schwartz, a recently term-limited State Senator who represented Aspen, Gunnison and the San Luis Valley on the Western Slope, was a hard campaigner and a prodigious fundraiser.

It appears Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and the Washington Democratic operatives see a Republican bloodbath coming, especially with Donald Trump as the nominee, and are slating their best candidates in even harder to win seats.

Read Denver Post article: Scott Tipton gets a Democratic challenger

Donald Trump Will Not be the Republican Nominee

Donald Trump believed his personality and a multi-candidate field would deliver him the nomination.

News flash, his personal image is one of the most disliked in modern American presidential political history (post WWII), and the seventeen-candidate field is now down to four: Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and unpledged delegates.

Trump’s arrogance led him to believe he didn’t need any real preparation for close media scrutiny. “I read newspapers” and “have common sense” has not proven sufficient to answer questions on social issues, like abortion, or foreign policy issues, like nuclear arms and alliances. Being politically incorrect on immigration and terrorism didn’t seem to hurt him, but favoring nuclear proliferation, opposing American alliances and being clueless on abortion politics is finally driving down his support. The economy was his strength and his undisciplined campaign chatter on non-economic issues has been a major distraction.

The loss of Wisconsin reinforces Trump’s difficulty of winning before the convention. Consistently 60 to 65 percent of the party is opposed to his nomination, and today, even more adamantly. A contested convention with possible multiple ballots is becoming a near certainty.

Edward R. Murrow

Hence, his lack of convention delegate strategy is his most serious failing as it will doom his candidacy. Because most of the delegates to the Republican convention will be party regulars, they are not likely to support outsider Donald Trump on second and subsequent ballots. In a few states, like Colorado, which avoided a preference poll or primary, delegates are mostly either going to support Ted Cruz as the conservative who has worked for months to recruit delegates or they will remain unpledged.

Most Republican delegates will be released after the first ballot in Cleveland and will not support Trump on later votes, both because he looks like a general election disaster and because he is an unpredictable maverick.

To paraphrase Edward R. Murrow: Good night Donald and good luck.

The above table represents the best estimates in an ongoing process with many moving parts. A variety of sources were used to find the delegate numbers, with most credible sources reporting them. The candidates could add to their delegate totals by winning over delegates pledged to other candidates and those elected unpledged.

Read The Buzz:
Trump coming to Colorado – Too late
Colorado Republicans help stop Trump – 9KUSA, Balance of Power
9KUSA – Four reasons Cruz leads in Colorado’s pledged delegates

Clinton and Trump Both Attract Older, Moderate and Downscale Voters – KOA With Susan Witkin and Mike Rice

As discussed with Susan and Mike on KOA, it’s not generally recognized, but older Democratic Party regular Hillary Clinton and Republican outsider Donald Trump are drawing from similar constituencies in their respective parties. An analysis of primary exit polls show they both attract older voters and are losing the young, are supported by moderates, are in tough fights with their respective party extremes, and win the lion’s share of lower income and less educated voters. They are both opposed by better educated party elites.

The candidates will have to expand off their base to broaden their appeal for the general election. But, Trump has the much tougher task. His record-high unfavorability leaves him handicapped to appeal to younger voters; conservatives; the establishment; and constituencies Clinton has a substantial lead with, women and minorities.

Trump Coming to Colorado – Too Late

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz

Colorado news outlets are reporting Donald Trump will visit for the first week of April for the congressional delegate conventions that culminate in the state convention on Saturday, April 9. He’s too late. The Republican Party establishment and operatives for Ted Cruz have already locked up most of the delegates, if early reports hold up.

As reported last week on 9KUSA, early reports of state convention delegates show Cruz had the lion’s share of pledged delegates, but that the bulk of delegates (two-thirds of the 34 available) were remaining unpledged.

Read The Buzz blogs:
Colorado Republicans help stop Trump – 9KUSA Balance of Power
9KUSA – Four reasons Cruz leads in Colorado’s pledged delegates

Initiatives Hit a New Record

It was assumed the 145 initiatives filed in 2014 would be a difficult record to break, but as of the filing deadline on March 25, 2016, 158 initiatives were filed for review and comment, with a mass of final filings the last few days.

Many of the initiatives follow a new trend of multiple filings for a basic constitutional or statutory goal, with upwards of ten or more versions. Each version tests variants on the core theme, such as different tax levels for infrastructure advocates, different versions of TABOR changes and distances fracking is prohibited. Hence, it is likely if the initiatives pass legal muster (mostly a ballot language test related to two subjects), only one of each of the core concepts will be promoted by proponents.

In 2014, most of the initiatives were never seriously going to find the 90,000 plus signatures needed for the ballot, and many proponents didn’t even try. They were just fishing for a local or national admirer who could supply money or passion.

All the anti-fracking proposals were abandoned at the last minute, leaving only four initiatives on the ballot. Out of the entire effort, one rather innocuous change in public education-labor transparency passed.

Read:
The Gazette: Colorado voters can expect lengthy November ballot packed with initiatives
The Complete Colorado: Coalition of contractors file 10 possible initiatives for more road building
The Buzz: State flooded again with ballot initiatives

Clinton and Trump Coalitions Have Similarities

Exit polls from the Democratic and Republican primaries confirm the description of Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s strengths and weaknesses with their respective party voting blocs. There are differences, but also some similarities. Clinton’s position is much stronger in that she’s averaged 57 percent of the primary vote. Trump, in his multi-candidate contest, has only averaged 39 percent.

In Clinton’s contest with Bernie Sanders, she’s attracting the African American voters and females. Trump by contrast is overperforming with White men. But within their contrasting camps, both do better with older voters and downscale voters with less education and income. And, they both attract moderates in their parties more than the extreme.

Comparison of Trump’s and Clinton’s

Strengths and Weaknesses