Marijuana Holds Slim Majority of Colorado in Favor

Very little movement in public opinion is detected in the commercialization of marijuana in Colorado. The latest Quinnipiac survey shows a narrow majority of Colorado voters perceive marijuana legalization as positive. Only 53 percent believe legalization has been good for the state. And 55 percent still support the law passed in 2012 by 55 percent (Amendment 64).

Support and opposition, not surprising, is highly influenced by a person’s partisanship, their age, and interestingly, their gender. While a bare majority of women support the law, 47 percent oppose it.

Nationally, after a strong run-up in support in recent years, polls show public support for legalization has leveled off at the mid-50 percent level.

Although Gallup’s 2015 poll had support at 58 percent, they were cautious that is might be less of a trend than significant volatility in their annual poll on the issue.

But, momentum for legalization and commercialization of the industry continues with numerous states considering legalization, including California, and the new prime minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, advocating his country legalize it.

Photo: Coloradoan

All in for Gun Control

Democrats have decided, as they did in December 2012 after the Sandy Hook elementary school massacre, that now is the moment to demand more gun control. It will be interesting to watch the impact of their strategy. It had very limited affect in terms of new laws in 2013. Colorado was one of the very few states that enacted any legislation, and it produced a backlash that led to the loss of three legislators and cost Democrats their state senate majority.

Examining public opinion concerning gun control shows the public’s views are complex. And after the recent spate of horrific incidents, likely subject to change.

In the short-term, there is a noticeable increase in support for gun control. The latest Gallup poll shows an 8 point increase over last year. But, other recent polls are showing mixed support for gun control. CNN’s pre-San Bernardino poll shows 52 percent of Americans oppose “stricter gun control laws.” Whatever the current support for gun control, it often decays as time passes and top news stories shift.

• Although the public supports some gun restrictions, such as universal registration and bans of some weapons, they also are:

1. Skeptical the restrictions will make much of a difference.
2. Support the Second Amendment and the right to own a weapon. In fact, 40 percent of households have a gun.

• Gun owners tend to be very passionate about their rights, and there are more of them than equally passionate gun control advocates. 

Also, a July Colorado survey shows only 39 percent in favor of “stricter new gun control laws in Colorado,” 56 percent oppose them. In general, Colorado Democrats should be cautious about how much gun control they advocate. There are far more families with guns in their households than marijuana.

The Nation’s Influential Newspapers are Jumping into Presidential Politics with Hot Editorials

Donald Trump and gun control have triggered high-profile responses from the print media. New York

Donald Trump

Times put its pro-gun control views on the Saturday, December 4, 2015 front page and the Washington Post house editorial on Sunday, December 6, 2015 called Donald Trump a corrosive candidate who is ethically bankrupt. It recommended he be condemned by the party establishment.

The Times called for the end of gun epidemic and called it a “moral outrage and a national disgrace that people can legally purchase weapons designed to kill with brutal speed and efficiency.” It recommended reducing the number of firearms and eliminating deadly categories of weapons. Putting it on the front page yells the viewpoint. Editorial can command attention, especially of the attentive public and political activists and leaders.

Trump and gun control are now tests for the influences of the media establishment. We shall see the effect.

Getty Images

Pollsters Present “Year of the Outsider”

Some of the West’s top pollsters gathered in San Francisco on a panel organized by Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver, titled the “Year of the Outsider.” The Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) annual conference brings together public opinion professionals in the West.

The group presented California, Washington State, Colorado and national data on the political outsider phenomena that is having so much impact on the 2016 presidential race.

Washington State’s best-known pollster Stuart Elway was joined by Mark Baldassare, who directs California’s leading polling research center, the Public Policy Institute of California. Jon Cohen, vice president of research for Palo Alto based SurveyMonkey, which is rapidly becoming a leading election research firm, presented the latest national data on the Republican presidential field. SurveyMonkey has most recently partnered with NBC News to provide post-debate polls on who won. Co-presenting with Jon was recent Crossley Center graduate, Kevin Stay, a new research associate of SurveyMonkey.

Colorado has a long history of liking candidates with outsider credentials. Ciruli spoke about that history and placed the phenomena in historical and public opinion context.

Panel – 2016: The Year of the Outsider

Chair: Floyd Ciruli, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research
The History of Outsider Preference, Floyd Ciruli
The Summer of our Discontent, Stuart Elway, Elway Research
Californians’ Opinion of Political Outsiders, Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California
Trump’s Beguiling Ascent: What 50-State Polling Says About the Surprise GOP Frontrunner, Jon Cohen and Kevin Stay, SurveyMonkey

Denver Metro Area on a Roll

After a nine percent increase in sales tax revenue in the seven-county Denver metro area, the region is headed for a six percent increase this year.  A one-percent sales tax, a common source of revenue for municipalities and counties in the area, would produce more than $550,000,000 region-wide, a fifty percent increase since the 2008-09 recession.

The Denver Business Journal reports that the metro area added 22,200 jobs the first six months of the year, an upward revision of 12,800 additional jobs. The growth rate of 3.9 percent is a full percentage point above the state rate. There were some losses in oil and gas jobs, but residential construction is hot.

The Denver Business Journal also reported the state has the second highest growth in personal consumption in the U.S., tied with Texas (just measures of consumer spending on goods and services) and just behind North Dakota (which is slowing down rapidly) (5.7% in Colorado and Texas vs. 4.2% nationally).

American Global Strategy in a Changing World

Dean Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli, director of the new Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, will present a day-long symposium on American foreign policy and politics for the annual University of Denver Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) event on December 3.

Clinton Expects to End Contest March 1st Super Tuesday

KOA anchors Steffan Tubbs and April Zesbaugh hosted a discussion of Hillary Clinton’s latest foray into Colorado in advance of the March 1st caucus. In 2008, Clinton lost the Colorado caucus to candidate Barack Obama, highlighting his strategy of focusing on low turnout caucuses that young people and liberals could dominate.

Former Sen. Mark Udall introduces Hillary Clinton
 at organizing event at Boulder Theater on Nov. 24
Photo: Pat Duncan/Colorado Statesman

Clinton doesn’t intend on losing to Bernie Sanders in 2016.

• Although Clinton dominates the race as of the end of November in terms of polling support (55% Clinton to 27% Sanders in Colorado, Quinnipiac poll, Nov. 2015), the measure of command of the nomination is about to shift to delegate counts. The March 1st Super Tuesday will, if all goes according to Clinton’s plan, create such a sweep of momentum to make her nomination a forgone conclusion. She hopes to win the four February events, demonstrating national support and early momentum. But, it is the eleven events on March 1st with a powerful southern tilt that could well crush Sanders.

Also events on March 1st in American Samoa and for Democrats abroad.

• Clinton came to Colorado for endorsements and contributions. She got both; Wellington Webb is leading the caucus rally and many of the state’s current and ex-public officials have endorsed (Mark Udall, Ken Salazar, Jared Polis, Dickey Lee Hullinghorst). About 700 of the 4,000 Democratic delegates are automatic so-called super delegates. Clinton plans to have most of them by March.

• Although terrorism is the issue de jure (when she was here on August 4 her focus was criticizing Jeb Bush on immigration and Republicans for defunding Planned Parenthood), it is not a strong issue for Democrats. And indeed, she kept focused on social and environmental positions, favored by liberals and young voters – for example, gun control and global warming. Clinton’s challenge is not a lack of appeal to the basic liberal sentiments of potential caucus attendees, but their passion and motivation to attend.

• Basically, Clinton represents the old Democratic establishment anxious to hold on to power and the presidency, hardly an aspiring message. Clinton attracted about a 1,000 supporters to each of the two events: one in Denver and one in Boulder. In Bernie Sanders’ two Colorado visits, he attracted 9,000 in Boulder and 5,000 at DU – 5-to-1 is probably about the enthusiasm level between the two candidates at the grassroots.