Bush Family Still Influences American Politics

Twenty-five years have passed since the inauguration of George H.W. Bush. The family gathered for a celebration at the Bush Library at College Station. Condi Rice, Richard Haass and Robert Gates all took part, a reminder that foreign policy was a Bush strength, especially related to Russia.

At a moment the U.S. is threatened and appears on the defensive, the reunion recalls Bush’s deft handling of the collapse of the USSR without triumphalism or conflict. And his six-week Gulf War is considered a model of assembling a coalition (34 nations) and maintaining a limited military mission.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush received considerable attention since interest in his presidential ambitions increased as Governor Christie’s support sank dealing with the bridge controversy. The Republican establishment wants a qualified centrist in the race, and Bush is a leader of the moderate wing of the party. He currently is at the high end of the modest percentage of support that the scattered Republican field is receiving.

 

Bush is boldly proclaiming an immigration reform message and is featured in an independently-funded media campaign with Governor Bobby Jindal broadcasting mainstream GOP themes, such as school choice, bottom-up economic development and small government.

Even President G.W. Bush managed to get some front page coverage at the reunion with his new portraits of world leaders. A shark-like Vladimir Putin was a favorite.

See:

CBS News: Jeb Bush, Rand Paul top GOP’s 2016 presidential wish list: Poll
Newsmax: WaPost Poll: Christie plunges in support behindPaul Ryan, Jeb Bush

Obama Receives Little Support for Handling Ukraine Crisis

Although Americans are restrained in their foreign ambition, oppose military action in Ukraine and support sanctions on Russia, they give President Obama little support for his handling of the crisis. He’s either below 50 percent approval or in negative territory in four national surveys conducted in March.

Paradoxically, Americans don’t rate Ukraine and Crimea high priorities and they claim to prefer the modest involvement Obama advocates, yet at the same time, they see Russia as a threat and want the U.S. to be tougher.

• CNN – 69% see “Russia as a threat to U.S.,” March 14, 2014
• Fox – 66% “not tough enough on Russia,” March 25, 2014
• AP – 49% “make sanctions stronger,” March 24, 2014
• Pew – 47% “take a firm stand” among those following news closely, March 11, 2014

See:
Washington Post poll: Americans support Ukraine sanctions, split on Obama performance
CNN poll 3-10-14: 59% approve of sanctions against Russia

Can Democrats Hold the Colorado State Senate?

After a disastrous 2013, Senate Democrats have tried to recoup by limiting the 2014 session agenda to less controversial items and doing a few bipartisan bills.

Early prognostication focuses on six senate seats that appear potentially competitive. Republicans just need to switch one, but, of course, Democrats will be working hard to recapture the two they lost. The Pueblo seat should be easy if Democrats stay united, but Colorado Springs is seen as competitive.

Term-limits will retire two veteran Republican leaders in Greg Brophy, now running for governor, and Douglas County’s Ted Harvey. Scott Renfro is also out and now running for Congress in the 4^th District (Cory Gardner’s seat). Republicans will easily replace all three. Democrats’ two term- limited senators are in competitive seats. Lois Tochtrop leaves what could be a competitive seat in Adams County. She last won her seat by a handful of votes. Gail Schwartz from Pitkin, who represents the central and southwestern part of Colorado, will leave one of the state’s largest and most competitive seats. Schwartz won two close races. Democrats will miss her as she is a strong campaigner and good fundraiser.

 

In recent years, Jefferson County has produced some bitter Republican primaries and competitive races. This year, there are two seats on the competitive list. Andy Kerr, a Democratic leader on education, won by 52 percent in 2012. Jeanne Nicholson was targeted by gun rights advocates in 2013 and will face similar opposition this year.

Wave or No Wave Election

A Washington consensus is building that Republicans will add seats in the House and win six seats and a majority in the Senate. But, recent elections have shown that local circumstances, namely flawed Republican candidates, have frustrated previous predictions of Republican control of the senate. However, this year, Republican pragmatists appear to be in ascendance.

Not every non-presidential election year is a wave election. There have been four nationalized or wave elections in the last 40 years, and two of those have been in the last decade.

The Nixon resignation launched the 1974 Democratic sweep, which brought in Watergate babies, last two of whom retired this year, California’s Henry Waxman and George Miller. Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America led the way to the Republicans retaking the House after a 40-year absence. Finally, in the last decade, the House has changed hands twice – once putting Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker Chair and four short years later replacing her with John Boehner.

 

A host of metrics appear to be suggesting this election could be highly impacted by national factors and, as of now, the wave favors the Republicans:

• Country is on wrong track – 62%
• Presidential approval 43%, disapproval 53%
• Generic ballot test – 2 points Democrats (tighter if likely voters)
• Obama’s job performance on economy – 39%
• Obama’s job performance on foreign policy – 36%
• Approve ACA – 41%; it’s going well – 27%
• Enthusiastic to vote in midterm: Republicans – 70%, Democrats – 58% 

Source: Real Clear Politics 2014; CBS News 2014

The Denver Post Perspective section opined on variables influencing the midterm elections Sunday, March 30:

“Since the first stimulus package in 2009, most voters think that neither party has been doing particularly well on economic issues,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based political analyst.

Ciruli expects that this year, maybe even more than usual, the state’s midterm elections will be a referendum on the presidency. Obama’s approval ratings continue to plummet: In 2013, on average only 42.3 percent of Coloradans thought the president was doing a good job, considerably lower than the nation’s 46.5 percent average, according to Gallup polls.

“The real issue is: Will Obama and Washington hurt state Democrats?” Ciruli asked.

See Washington Post: Republicans have a better than 80 percent chance of winning the Senate

May 2015 – Lots of Change in Denver

In May 2015, Denver Mayor Michael Hancock will face his first re-election and congenial longtime Denver politician and term-limited auditor, Dennis Gallagher, will retire. Due to term-limits there will be some shuffling of council positions and new faces. Among the term-limited politicians are:

• Auditor Dennis Gallagher
• City Councilperson Charlie Brown – Southeast
• City Councilperson Jeanne Faatz – far Southwest (only Republican and fiscal watchdog)
• City Councilperson Peggy Lehmann – far Southeast
• City Councilperson Judy Montero – Downtown, Northwest
• City Councilperson Chris Nevitt – South-Central (not term-limited, but rumored running for auditor)
• City Councilperson Jeanne Robb – Capitol Hill, Central

Denver City Councilman
Charlie Brown

Among councilpersons, the retirements represent a collective 62 years of experience, including Charlie Brown, the member most likely to attend your event and have a cowboy hat on.

Denver mayors tend to be re-elected, but if they’re going to have a serious challenge, it is usually in the first re-election. Although Hancock has avoided major controversy, Denver is a city with many political factions and constituencies. Someone always wants something more done or something different. So, although it will be a surprise if Hancock has a significant challenge, his re-election is not likely to be a criticism-free event.

Energy Issue Dogs Democrats

With energy policy a key issue in states with vulnerable Democratic incumbent senators, President Obama’s poor job rating on “improving the nation’s energy policy” adds to his political weakness in the November election.

He is only considered as doing a good job of improving energy policy by 42 percent of the public (Gallup, 3-24-14). His rating has been weak since early 2010 (43%), but today, it is a more serious political problem given the salience and impending decisions concerning the Keystone Pipeline, liquefying natural gas and fracking, all items economically important in battleground states, such as Colorado, Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana and Alaska.

 

Obama’s rating for making America prosperous is equally low (39%), but he scores better on “protecting the nation’s environment” (51%). Unfortunately for Democrats, today, energy policy and the economy are considered more important priorities than the environment.

The President’s timely decision on the Keystone Pipeline is important to Senator Mark Udall:

Udall’s “natural sentiment would be to be against” KXL [Keystone Pipeline], Denver-based independent pollster Floyd Ciruli said in an interview, as he is “fundamentally our most environmental senator.”

Gardner is an ardent industry backer, however, and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is supportive of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas even as the issue sparks multiple local battles over banning the practice. Having to “weed [weave] through” the challenge of green support for fracking bans, Ciruli added, means Udall is likely “praying that the president will decide [on KXL] so he can move on.” (Elana Schor, E&E Publishing, 2-28-14)

Ken Buck is a Brand

Nearly every Republican in the Fourth Congressional District already voted for Ken Buck for Senate in 2010. As Ciruli told Lynn Bartels in the Denver Post (3-27-14):

“Ken Buck is a brand and that’s an advantage, but this definitely is a race,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli.

What makes it more interesting, he said, is that Weld and Douglas counties are places to watch when it comes to Republican politics.

The primary ballot decision on June 24 will decide who the next congressperson is from the 4^th CD.

Also see The Buzz: Buck frontrunner in Fourth Congressional District – T.M. Fasano,Greeley Tribune