Vincent Carroll Sees “Tough Sell” for Billion-Dollar School Tax Increase

Denver Post editorial page editor, Vincent Carroll, weighed the political factors helping and hurting the K-12 school tax increase and saw it facing a very difficult, but not impossible, burden.

Proponents have an attractive list of benefits from the tax revenue and a massive amount of money to sell it. They also have a strong network of education advocates working to turn out supporters. Finally, they will get a ballot to every registered voter, giving them a better chance to increase turnout.

A few of the negative factors are:

• The turnout in 2011? A little over 1 million. “It’s going to be an old election,” pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli told me, referring to the average age of voters. Amendment 66 proponents “need deep liberals” to turn out, he added, including the young and minorities.
• “If the election were held today, this would lose.”
• Even so, as Ciruli explains, “There is a presumption against a state tax hike and you have to overcome that presumption.”
• And that means overcoming the ballot language itself, which poses the following stark question: “SHALL STATE TAXES BE INCREASED BY $950,100,000 ANNUALLY ... .”

But as Carroll concludes: “Still, Amendment 66 fans need hardly despair. It wasn’t so very long ago, after all, that a blue-tinged Colorado seemed conceivable as well.”

See Denver Post: One tough sell for a tax hike

Colorado Schools Get a Billion

One argument that proponents of Amendment 66 must overcome is that many of their potential supporters just approved a billion dollars in local tax increases to pay for operation and construction of public schools.

In 2012, after several years of fiscal drought, Colorado taxpayers in many local jurisdictions, including Denver, Jefferson, Cherry Creek and Pueblo, authorized what was reported as one billion dollars in tax increases.

Will they do it again one year later for a state fund using a distribution formula largely without detail?

See The Buzz: Colorado schools ask voters for a billion

Denver Post Endorsement of Amendment 66 Weak

As expected, the Denver Post endorsed Amendment 66, the billion-dollar tax increase for schools.  The Post’s editorial board has been consistent supporters of education reform since the current movement started in earnest in the 1990s.

From curriculum standards and charter schools to education testing and performance pay, a series of Colorado governors, beginning with Romer and Owens and now Hickenlooper, have kept Colorado on the forefront of K-12 education reform, albeit producing modest levels of improvements in student achievement.

The Post has also been a consistent supporter of more money for schools, from local bonds and mill levy overrides ($1 million passed in 2012) to major statewide initiatives, such as Roy Romer’s 1992 one-cent increase (defeated) and Amendment 23 in 2000 (passed).

But, the editorial board also described the fundamental flaw in the current system of public education, and that is the primary group that is responsible for public school education and the major recipient of the billions of new funding from this proposal – the teachers union – is energetically opposed to even the modest reforms incorporated into Amendment 66. They have made it clear they will fight reform in court and, of course, in future legislative sessions and in local school board races (as they are currently in Denver Public Schools).

The Post’s acid response is that the union’s position is “treacherous” and “disgusting.”  The Post also believes the tax increase is too high and the funding is primarily required as incentive to undermine “entrenched interests.”

A temperate endorsement of a very significant tax increase.

See Denver Post editorial: Colorado’s schools need Amendment 66

KOA, 9 KUSA: Colorado Politics

In interviews with KOA’s Steffan Tubbs and 9 KUSA’s Mark Koebrich, Colorado’s hyperactive political environment was deconstructed in light of the federal shutdown and the 2014 election.

1. The early blame for the shutdown goes to the Republicans. They were headed to what appeared to be good 2014 results. The President’s approval rating was in the mid-40 percent range and their holding the House was likely, along with picking up a couple U.S. Senate seats. Now both are at risk. Because American public opinion is not the same as opinion in individual congressional districts, there is little incentive, as yet, to compromise.
2. In Colorado, Mike Coffman’s swing district is most in jeopardy from bad news from Washington. Democrats are already using the shutdown to good effect in governor races this fall.
3. Mike Kopp has entered the crowded governor’s field. Tom Tancredo has a strong base, but a low ceiling of support and much baggage. Scott Gessler has his own baggage, but as a statewide officeholder with a less extreme profile probably has a bit of an edge. Greg Brophy is liked, but has little money and a small base. Kopp could be the strongest candidate against Governor Hickenlooper, but the field is crowded and breaking out won’t be easy. 
4. Hickenlooper saw a bit of recovery with his strong performance during the floods. Since Katrina, politicians have recognized even more than before that extreme weather events can make or break a career. Witness Governor Christie’s ascendance after Hurricane Sandy. Colorado politicians have always appreciated the political power of weather since the Big Thompson flood helped Governor Dick Lamm’s survival in 1976 and the great snow storm of 1982 accelerated the end of the long career of Mayor Bill McNichols. Hickenlooper has had a major run of tragedy with fires, shootings and now floods.
5. The Democratic Senate leadership contest may have a bigger impact on Hickenlooper’s election fortunes than anything he does. A race is possible between Majority Leader Morgan Carroll, representing the aggressive left wing of the party that dominated the 2013 session, and Mary Hodge, who maintains strong business and rural Colorado ties, to become the Senate president. Carroll has the advantage, but the likelihood of more liberal legislation will mean Hickenlooper has to get vocal with veto threats or risk losing the center of the electorate next year.

Amendment 66 Has Hit a Glitch

Coloradans are less than two weeks from beginning to vote on the billion-dollar tax increase for education. The multi-million dollar advertising campaign is just beginning, layered on top of an extensive grassroots phone calling and mailing campaign.

But, a glitch was reported by the Denver Post on Thursday as two credible moderate political leaders, Norma Anderson (R) and Bob Hagedorn (D), filed a legal protest concerning the Amendment 66 ballot signature effort.

Although the legal challenge won’t stop the vote, and is unlikely to reverse the judgment of the voters, assuming it passed, the suit does produce some bad press and highlights that opposition to the amendment is not just dominated by extreme anti-labor or anti-spending activists.

Anderson and Hagedorn are long-time credible members of the largely moderate wings of their respective parties. They are respected by metro business and local government interests who have largely stood on the sidelines of early positioning on Amendment 66.

Colorado, an Obamacare State

Colorado began early under the Ritter administration and shortly after passage to fully embrace the Affordable Care Act. The Hickenlooper administration followed suit by rapidly expanding Medicaid coverage and organizing health care exchanges.

Democratic-controlled states are implementing the law and Republican states are resisting it. Colorado has become a show state for enthusiastic implementation, along with states such as California and Minnesota.

The public divisions are as stark as the states’ different directions. The latest CNN poll shows 57 percent of the public oppose the law, with significant differences between the parties. Colorado citizens, according to a USA Today poll, oppose Obamacare by 52 percent.

 According to USA Today, more than $20 million of tax dollars has been spent informing and promoting the Colorado program. Also, it is being promoted by the state’s progressive think tanks, foundations, and much of the public and private health care industries.

With that level of effort, if Colorado’s program fails to have a smooth implementation, there is likely to be political repercussions in 2014.

See USA Today: Colorado: Microcosm of confusion on health law

Hillary Challenged From Her Left?

Could the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination be challenged from her left? Democratic crowds are chanting for Elizabeth Warren, senator from Harvard, to run.

She’s from Democrats’ favorite workplace, a university, and most supportive
profession, tenured professor. But, most importantly for the 2016 election, she has credibility on the Democrats’ issue de jour, income inequality.

Warren, at 64, is not young, but she is new on the stage, and as a bankruptcy law professor, advocate for consumer rights and an author of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, she has a built in base in the party’s large anti-bank and anti-Wall Street wing.

But possibly Warren’s greatest strength is the contrast with Hillary Clinton, who now represents the apex of the Democratic establishment and is weathered from 35 years in the public eye, starting as the first lady of Arkansas. Clinton, due to the 2008 campaign and her husband’s two terms, represents the party’s center-left, especially on economic issues.

New and anti-establishment is what a lot of Democrats are looking for, even though the public may be drifting back to the middle and even right side of the political spectrum after two terms of Barack Obama. Ironically, Democratic dissatisfaction for Obama comes largely from his left. He’s not liberal enough, not aggressive or bold enough for many in the grassroots.

This nomination contest may be similar to the dynamics in the 2006 to 2008 period when Obama appeared on Hillary’s left and stole the nomination. In 2008, it was mostly Baby Boomers’ distrust of Clinton and their desire to give the purer liberalism of their youth a try with Obama. Today, it’s largely the X Generation, millions of whom have moved into the electorate.

For Democrats in 2016, the most critical characteristic is being a woman. A white man is not likely to see a Democratic nomination for a long time. The party’s base is now with minorities. While women are in fact the majority, the feminist view is one of minority status and being aggrieved.

In other words, a woman is up for the Democratic nomination, and Warren has some interesting assets if she wanted to go.