Could RTD Get Any More Embarrassing?

The latest “surprise” over Burlington Northern wanting more money, sooner than RTD’s managing team expected, adds to the pervasive distrust RTD generates from the public, including even supporters of transit.

As obvious to most, the 2004 regional transit proposal was a political plan, not a transit plan.  It’s no longer credible or relevant.  A $4 billion plan that now costs $8 billion will not be funded in this economy.

So, if areas want transit, and many do, they need to get creative. Mayor Steve Hogan has proposed the citizens of Aurora tax themselves to fund bonds to build the proposed I-225 rail line.  RTD’s funding stream would pay it off over the years.

As Sara Castellanos described in the Aurora Sentinel:

“Voters need to be guaranteed that the project will be completed on time, on budget, and that RTD will repay the loan over a period of time, said Floyd Ciruli, political analyst and Denver pollster.”

“‘One of the problems with RTD is that its projections of revenue or expenses has not been good and has raised a lot of skepticism,’ Ciruli said.  ‘But if people were confident that indeed they would get this, I think this might be a potential solution.’

He said Hogan’s idea falls in line with the city’s recent efforts to spearhead economic development.

‘My sense is that Aurora and certainly its leadership are anxious to get some things done,’ Ciruli said.

Next year is as good a year as any to put this type of question on the ballot, he said.

‘The general rule of these projects is that there is never a perfect time,’ Ciruli said.

Either the economy is too sluggish or there are competing ballot questions that take attention away from the transportation question, he said.

‘Ultimately when a project is this big and takes a long time to get done, you sort of just have to set a date and push forward,’ he said.”

Wisconsin Piles On

President Obama’s campaign is playing serious defense.  The economy appears to be slowing and unemployment headed back up. Bill Clinton and Cory Booker are providing counter-messages, and now the unions and Democrats have lost a major battle in a Democratic-leaning state.

The Wisconsin loss will shadow the Democrats for weeks.  It was a:

• Major loss for the local and national Democratic Party and its message of social equality through government unions.

• Major loss for unions in the only segment of the economy where they have grown – government

        The battle may have helped Mitt Romney and the Republicans
        solidify their support from the White (non-government) working
        class.

• Obama did not lose, but he won the state by 14 points in 2008, and now is ahead by only 7.  Substantial, but close enough to let the Republicans at least dream of an upset.  (If Democrats claim Arizona is in play, so is Wisconsin.)  

        Obama’s credibility was also hurt by his failure to show up and
        provide support.  Many unions and Democratic leaders will
        resent the Chicago campaign leadership’s calculations.

And although Governor Walker is unlikely to be the vice president, he is now a party superstar and will be treated as such in Tampa.

See Ralph Hallow’s analyses in The Washington Times, 5-5-12:

“One unknown in the political equation is whether Mr. Romney is enough of a risk-taker to go for someone seen as a hero to the party base but who inspires intense negative passions in the opposition.

 ‘I believe Romney goes with the safest and most comfortable vice president,’ said Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli.”

Also see The Weekly Standard:  Morning Jay: Why Wisconsin Matters

Obama’s Challenge is Turnout

Gallup reports a dead even race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney – 46 percent to 46 percent.  The candidates are closely matched, with nearly symmetrical support among the primary demographic groupings:  gender, partisanship, religiosity, ethnicity and age.

Obama has the support of 50 percent of women voters and 42 percent of men, the precise reciprocal of Romney’s support.  Obama only loses 6 percent of Democrats to Romney and Romney holds all but seven percent of Republicans against Obama.

Obama’s challenge is that two of his core constituencies – Hispanics and voters under 29 years old – indicate a low likelihood to vote.

Charlie Cook uses in his analyses a Gallup question that asked voters to rate their likelihood to vote on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 the highest certainty.  Younger voters and Hispanics are more than 10 points below Black voters or non-Hispanic Whites in likelihood to vote.

Hence, Obama’s attention to Hispanics and young voters is more about turnout than persuasion.  And, all that field work is his reinforcements.

See:
National Journal:  Trouble for Obama
Gallup:  Structure of U.S. presidential race shows little change so far

Colorado: Obama Up by Less Than Margin of Error

Three polls in the last month confirm Colorado’s toss-up status.  President Obama is ahead by less than the margin of error in an average of the three polls maintained by the political website, www.realclearpolitics.com.

The NBC sample showing the race is one point for President Obama is the largest, but was conducted without identifying the most likely voters.

Expect the race to remain close due to the committed blocs of partisans and partisan-leaning independents being in close balance in Colorado.  The volatility is mostly a reflection of weak partisans’ and independent voters’ inclination to change positions due to campaign and other factors, such as the latest headline on the economy.

Also, polls have numerous methodological differences – some deliberately designed, some unidentified methods – that produce variation.

See The Buzz blog:  Colorado presidential race within one point in nonstop politics to conventions

Westword’s Michael Roberts and 5280’s Robert Sanchez Post on Colorado’s Last Two Weeks of Political Turmoil

John Hickenlooper, Mike Coffman could see political fallout, pollster says
By Michael Roberts

“John Hickenlooper and Mike Coffman aren’t exactly ideological twins. But at the end of this big political week in the State of Colorado, they both face political fallout, albeit for very different reasons: a special session that failed to pass civil unions and comments questioning Barack Obama’s birth records, respectively.  Will they be hurt by these events?  Quite possibly, says Floyd Ciruli, Colorado's preeminent pollster.” (May 18, 2012)

Politics: Reading the Tea Leaves of Colorado Politics
By Robert Sanchez

“Floyd Ciruli has been polling in Colorado for nearly three decades.  We asked him for his opinions on the state’s biggest topics.

Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli is mindful of the state’s hot topics – and perhaps none is hotter than the presidential race.  Ciruli – whose company, Ciruli Associates – has been polling and consulting for nearly three decades, talked to 5280 this week about a variety of Colorado-based political issues.  (Some of the Ciruli’s comments have been condensed and edited for brevity.)” (May 30, 2012)

Also see:
Denver Post – The Spot:  U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman: Repeat after me

Colorado Presidential Race Within One Point in Nonstop Politics to Conventions

Historically, presidential campaigns begin after Labor Day with massive advertising and field activities.  That was even mostly true in 2008, but this year, neither presidential candidate wants to be behind on Labor Day and neither is trusting a bump from their respective conventions.

Colorado, as a targeted state, is receiving the full effect of a presidential campaign on the first of June.

Campaign commercials from Super Pacs and candidate campaigns are two or three deep on local 10:00 pm news channels and presidential visits are now counted in weeks.

Both campaigns are building ground games as Colorado has closely balanced blocs of base voters and one of the country’s largest contingency of swing voters.  President Obama started last fall and Mitt Romney is only now catching up.

Expect the intensity to continue.  An April published poll from a self-described bipartisan organization called Purple Strategies calls Colorado a 47 percent to 47 percent tie.  Carl Rowe cited the poll in his recent Wall Street Journal column claiming the national election for Romney and Colorado a key state that will be in the Republican camp.  A couple of new May polls, one from the Democratic group Project New America states Obama has a four point advantage over Romney (48% to 44%), and a NBC News/Marist poll claims a one-point Obama advantage.

The new rule is to win or stay close in the pre-convention period or you may never catch up.

See:
PurplePoll April 2012 edition

The Hill:  Rocky path for Obama in Colorado

The Weekly Standard:  What about Colorado?

Project New America memo

NBC News/Marist poll

Silver Tells Us What We Know: Colorado is a Toss-up

Nate Silver, New York Times election data analyst, produced a report on what he calls swing voters and elastic states.  Colorado has one of the nation’s largest percentages of swing voters and, hence, is a very elastic state with a high percentage of voters who switch positions depending on campaigns, candidates and trends, such as changes in the economy.

But, there are states with high percentages of independent-type voters that are not toss-up states.  Colorado has the second necessary condition to be a toss-up, and that is close partisan balance; i.e., the base vote of each party is relatively close in size (see Silver’s report for background on his logarithmic technique).

Mary Winter for the Columbia Journalism Review reported on the topic:

“Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Denver political commentator and pollster, pointed to another important voting bloc he sees as key to the election: independents.  ‘Thirty percent of voters here are not attached to either party,’ he said, which means they will be micro-targeted via social media and advertising by both major parties.  (Though when discussing self-declared independents, it’s useful to remember that most of them have some attachment to one party or the other.)

Independent voters, Ciruli said, ‘get most of their cues from the media.  They are ad-oriented, they make decisions late, they have less commitment, and they can change their minds.’  They need to be constantly persuaded, and ‘typically, you do that by putting a headline in front of them that says the other person is extreme or terrible or corrupt.’”  (Columbia Journalism Review, May 22, 2012)

Many western states have a lot of swing voters, but Colorado and New Mexico are considered toss-ups due to also being closely balanced in partisanship.  Arizona and Montana, which also have a lot of independents, lean toward the GOP in their partisan balance, and Oregon and Washington lean toward the Democrats.

Silver’s rating of the fifty states is shown in the table below. Colorado is in the elite group with Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and New Mexico as the most volatile (elastic) and most closely balanced.

States also considered battlegrounds are in the center column, but tend to have fewer swing voters, such as Nevada, Florida and Ohio. Finally, there are states with very few swing voters, but the base groups are closely matched, such as North Carolina and Virginia. North Carolina will be all about turnout versus Colorado, where working the base is only a part of the story.  Attracting the independent or swing voter will be the key.

See:
New York Times blog – FiveThirtyEight:  Swing voters and elastic states
Columbia Journalism Review:  What’s the swingiest state of them all?