Will Congressional Incumbents Sink With Super Committee and Payroll Tax Impasses?

Congressional approval has never been lower and incumbent anti-re-election sentiment higher.

Congressional approval began its latest descent in July as the debt ceiling gridlock dominated the media.  It continued during the collapse of the House and Senate Super Committee negotiations and became a national and international statement of political futility as the Senate and House bypassed each other with legislation and the President Obama mostly won on points by focusing on assigning blame.

Generally speaking, the public states it wants compromise.  Sixty percent of national adults wanted the Super Committee to agree to a compromise.  Even 55 percent of Republicans said they wanted a compromise.  Of course, 42 percent didn’t, and 53 percent of Tea Party members said hold out, and they are most likely to show up at Republican caucuses and primaries.

The payroll tax cut was popular and the administration framed it in their favor.  Republicans gave up to cut their losses.  Obama’s approval numbers have improved.  He ended the year at 47 percent in the year’s last Gallup poll.

As the election year begins, will voters translate this disgust with the national political process by voting incumbents out?  Although historically a majority of voters have told pollsters they are planning to vote against incumbents, they still send the vast majority of U.S. congressmen back to the House – the “my Congressman exception.”

Voters’ options are to vote against the incumbent President’s party as they did in 2010, vote against all incumbents reflecting their general disdain or vote mostly against Republicans as the party of gridlock as the President prefers.

A new Pew poll (December 15, 2011) argues that incumbents, specifically the Republican majority, could be voted out of office.  The President and Democrats are apparently gaining same traction in blaming Republicans for the Washington impasse.

The presidential election may be an even more potent factor in congressional elections this year as President Obama runs on his “do nothing Congress” theme.

See following links:

Gallup:  Congress ends 2011 with record-low 11% approval

Gallup:  Record high anti-incumbent sentiment toward Congress

Gallup:  Americans blame both sides of “Supercommittee” for failure

Gallup:  Americans want new debt Supercommittee to compromise

Pew:  Frustration with Congress could hurt Republican incumbents

9News:  Your Show – Supercommittee failure

Mormon Religion Factor, But Not Bar

Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion is a factor for some voters, but it is likely to be mostly background noise if it’s a Romney vs. Obama race.

Gallup has recorded since the 1960s between 17 percent and 22 percent of voters (a high of 24 percent was registered in 2007, the last time Romney was a high-profile candidate) saying that they would not vote for a Mormon, who by all other criteria, was well qualified. 

Gallup points out what the double-digit resistance to electing a Mormon president has survived for more than 40 years, whereas resistance to Catholics, Jews, blacks and women has declined to single digits since the 1960s and 1970s.  Only a gay, lesbian or atheist candidate would generate as much resistance as a Mormon today.

But the importance of the issue is mitigated by many people not being familiar with Romney’s religion and it being most important to more churched voters, who are highly unlikely, due to partisanship and social issues, to vote for President Obama.

The election dynamics will likely make Mormonism a bigger issue in the primaries than the general election.  Pew points out that the white evangelical voters have the most qualms with Romney’s religion.  Since Romney survived Iowa, and if he can maintain momentum through South Carolina, he likely will be judged on a host of other issues than his religion for the rest of the nomination process.

However, he will likely have a Jeremiah Wright movement sometime in 2012 where he must, in a high-profile way, explain what his religion does and does not do for him as a politician.

See following articles:

Gallup:  In U.S., 22% are hesitant to support a Mormon in 2012

Pew:  Romney’s Mormon faith likely a factor in primaries, not in a general election

Washington Post:  For Romney, Mormon question rears its ugly head in Iowa

New York Times:  Poll finds religion is early drag on Romney

Gallup:  Religion and party ID strongly linked among Whites, not Blacks

Marijuana will be on the Ballot

John Ingold reports in the Denver Post that a legalization of marijuana for recreational use will very likely be on the ballot in November. The marijuana interest groups backed up with big distribution money (and wealthy libertarians) believe time is on their side. The public is getting more tolerant of use.

This will be Colorado voters second consideration of it. They said no by 59 percent in 2006 and California voters defeated it in 2010.

But, a new robo poll claims it has one-half the voters in favor of it – an improvement from years past – but hardly a strong opening position.

“That result, said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli, shows the Colorado campaign is starting from a weak position, as voters generally become more conservative on issues as the election approaches. But Ciruli said a well-funded campaign from proponents could change the pattern.”

January Presidential Events

Although January’s four Republican presidential delegate events only represent 115 delegates to the Republican national convention (5% of 2,285 total delegates), it will winnow the field and, in fact, could decide the race.

John McCain’s victory in three primaries – New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida – with only about one-third of the vote gave him momentum into an early Super Tuesday in 2008 (February 7) to drive Mitt Romney out of the race shortly thereafter.

The participation in the first four events increases with each event and involves upward of 3 million voters, most of them participating in the Florida primary (Iowa more than 100,000 caucus attendees, 250,000 plus voters in New Hampshire, 500,000 in South Carolina and 2 million in Florida). 

The first western events will be the Nevada and Colorado caucuses on February 4 and 7, respectively.  Super Tuesday this year isn’t until March 6 and will involve fewer contests and delegates.

Could the Republican race be over quickly?  Yes, but the ubiquitous debates and changes in delegate selection rules and dates could lead to a lengthy contest between the Republican establishment and insurgent forces.

Republican Debates Top TV Show in 2011

The thirteen Republican debates in 2011 drew strong viewership, incessant commentary, and made and removed several candidate frontrunner statuses.  Herman Cain’s initial boom in the Florida straw poll and Rick Perry’s stall reflected their performance in the first CNN Tea Party Movement debate.

The interest in cable networks to gain access to candidates, stories and audiences partially explains the proliferation of debates.  The partnership with political interest groups, movements and think tanks is new and added events.

Mitt Romney’s image of a steady, if uninspiring, candidate was largely created by his debate performances through December.  Newt Gingrich’s late ascendance to top rank was a function of his ability to reframe debate questions to serve his anti-media themes and Tea Party Movement preferences.  The lack of a debate the two holiday weeks made him more vulnerable to the late attack ads against him.

About one-third of Republicans in early October (Pew, Oct. 13-16, 2011) reported having watched the Republican candidates debate, but one-half of Tea Party supporters said they watched.  Tea Party watchers were the most likely to say the debates led them to reassess their choice of candidates.

The debates have changed the Republican landscape since June:

·         Debates nationalize the race, especially when combined with polls.  Much less emphasis has gone into state visits and more into debate preparation until very late before the Iowa caucus.

·         The tone of the race became highly negative and candidates’ weaknesses were put on a national stage early in the race.

·         Early debates provided a forum for under-financed and mostly known candidates to stay in the race.  Will post Iowa debates encourage also-rans in Iowa and New Hampshire to keep campaigning?  Apparently not, but they did dominate the 2011 media coverage.

See articles:

9News:  Are the many GOP debates helping the process?

Pew Research Center:  A third in GOP have seen a presidential debate

Wall Street Journal:  How TV debates have changed the race

Hickenlooper – Good Start, What’s Next?

Tim Hoover’s Denver Post year-end review of John Hickenlooper gave him good initial grades, but Republicans accuse him of avoiding hard choices.

The public liked Hickenlooper’s first year.  See blog:  Hickenlooper – The Nonpartisan Governor

“A poll released last week from Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli shows Hickenlooper with a 59 percent approval rating from Coloradans and only a 17 percent disapproval rating.  Another recent poll pegged him as the second-most-popular governor among 37 states where opinions on governors had been polled in 2011.

‘Definitely, given that these are difficult times for politicians, he has maintained the popularity he came into office with,’ Ciruli said.”

2012 Begins in Dead Heat

Americans are closely divided on the direction they wish to send the country in the next four years.

Gallup’s final 2011 polls show that Republicans two top candidates, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, are within the margin of error in their challenge to President Barack Obama.

·         Obama wins by two points.  That is probably the smart money play.

·         Dislike of Obama is main motivation of vote.  Voters, including many Republicans, still don’t know or particularly like the Republican frontrunners.

·         Obama wins close races.  Four years ago in June 2008, Obama was barely ahead of Hillary Clinton among Democrats and only four points ahead of John McCain in match ups.

·         Obama and Democrats lost 2010, but they made a recovery in 2011.  Obama ends year at five-month approval high.

See Gallup polls:

Both Romney and Gingrich tie Obama on 2012 ballot

Clinton’s vs. Obama’s strengths in the general election

Obama, Democrats have edge on payroll tax, unemployment