Obama Out of Alignment With Electorate

Although there are numerous reasons offered by pundits for President Obama’s low 40 percent approval, the strongest correlation is between the onslaught of legislation beginning in February 2009 and the first clear signs of approval rates dropping in June, five months later.

Liberals argue any reason but the former Speaker Nancy Pelosi-driven legislative push.  Although, some have argued that Obama focusing on the legislative struggle was at best distraction, and at worst highlighted conflict and the President’s partisan position.  But, one piece of data points strongly to the shift in Obama’s ideology image to the left as a major driver in his approval decline.  Voters who believed Obama was a moderate liberal were unhappily surprised to witness the aggressive government program.  He became a big government, big-spending liberal as the stimulus, financial regulation, cap and trade, and health care bills solidified in their minds.  His liberal pro-government image is now set.  Ironically, liberals are increasingly unhappy with him because he hasn’t promoted even more government spending and interventions.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Washington Post/ABC News polls confirm that while the public remains more conservative than liberal, Obama is seen as more liberal than conservative.

DU’s Future Study Sees Dire Future Without More Tax Revenue

Not surprising, the latest study from the Denver University Center for Colorado’s Economic Future states a tax increases equal to $3.5 billion in new revenue is necessary by 2025, or in the next 14 years, to keep government services at current levels. But, as the recent Washington D.C. debt ceiling confrontation demonstrated, raising taxes without a serious discussion of the size of government, and in the case of Colorado, what the state should and should not fund, is likely to lead only to more partisan conflict and gridlock.

And to further complicate the discussion, a court ruling on equitable K-12 school funding is eminent (Lobato case), and combines with a growing sense the dominant government public school system is unaffordable and inefficient with mixed outcomes.

The national and economic slowdown and financial deleveraging means all aspects of the economy, including government and its revenue and expenditure, must be downsized in light of the “new normal.”

Although Colorado’s liberal think tanks warn of crises without new revenue, other leaders and many voters believe more government revenue is unjustified until there is across-the-board rethinking of the size and mission of government.

This debate may offer some support for the Bright Future education tax increase on the November ballot, but given the economy and voters’ ambivalent mood, it’s already engendered partisan ranker and the Hickenlooper administration’s and the business community’s low-profile.

See articles:
Denver Post: Study says Colorado budget outlook worse than thought and cutting alone won’t fix it
The Bell Policy Center: It’s time to talk about raising taxes
Washington Times: A lonely Colo. legislator crusades to raise taxes

Romney or Perry in Colorado

From the day Governor Rick Perry announced, he has been the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.  At the start of the post-Labor Day 2012 campaign season and sprint to the February 6 Iowa caucus, new polls have him with a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney.

The March 6 Colorado caucus should be favorable territory for Romney.  He won it soundly against John McCain in 2008 and has the bulk of the party establishment behind him now.

The earliest published Colorado poll (August 7, PPP Democratic robo poll) showed Romney with a higher favorability rating than Perry, largely due to being better known.

The poll was among all voters.  The entire Republican field lost to Obama at that point by 7 to 16 points, with Romney running closest.

The same poll among registered Republicans had Perry and Romney tied at 20 percent each when Sarah Palin was included, and Romney at 22 percent and Perry 21 percent when she was excluded.

Perry’s Colorado problem at that point is that the Tea Party and other movement conservatives were divided between Perry, Michele Bachmann (15%), Herman Cain (5%) and Newt Gingrich (9%), with Ron Paul receiving his regular libertarian vote (7%).

Although a new Colorado poll has not been published, new national polls show Perry has consolidated much of the conservative vote and has become their first choice.

In this new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey (August 27), President Obama was basically tied with Romney (46% Obama to 45% Romney) and led Perry by 5 points (47% Obama to 42% Perry).

The Republican Washington establishment feels Romney is the safer candidate.  They believe Perry will lose votes, especially independents and weak Democrats, because his message and image are too focused on the base of the party and not swing voters.  They fear he will become the issue not the President, and that he’s too “Buck”; that is, like Colorado senatorial candidate Ken Buck, he’s prone to verbal gaffs and will be easy to attack.

A series of debates will test those propositions.  But, at the moment, Perry’s base is carrying the day in the Republican Party, and Obama is in such trouble, even a less ideal candidate appears that he could win.

See also Gallup Poll:  Perry zooms to front of pack for 2012 GOP nomination

9/11 Anniversary and the New National Security State

For most of the Cold War and through the fall of the Soviet Union, America was concerned about the growth of a national security state needed to deter Soviet aggression and fight wars on the edges of that confrontation.

When the cost and tension of the obligations got high enough, such as during the Vietnam conflict, the dominant viewpoint became America should not and cannot afford to be the world’s policeman.

But today, we have become the world’s policeman, not just for state-sponsored threats, for which we man aircraft carriers, such as the John C. Stennis, but for non-state terrorist aggression for which we maintain thousands of super trained counter-terrorism troops armed with drones.

Both the military and CIA now have significant forces and weapon systems under their control for the purpose of hunting down and killing individuals in battle zones, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, but also in a dozen or more countries that are considered terrorist havens, such as Pakistan, Yemen and Syria.

Although the current budget crisis will reduce even Pentagon budgets, the likelihood the scope of the new mission will be reduced is unlikely unless we are truly broke or if the trade-off is one-for-one reductions in social security payments.

The American people really haven’t weighed in, although the general sense is both parties have major, if not majority, views that America should reduce its foreign operations footprint, now expressed by politicians as wanting to avoid nation-building.

A few facts about American foreign policy and public opinion today: Obama does much better in his foreign policy votes than domestic or economic policy. Nearly two-thirds (62%) approve of his performance in fighting terrorism (barely one-third approve of his job on the economy).

The latest Gallup poll indicates Americans feel both less threatened by a likely terrorist act (they are only 38% “very” or “somewhat” likely to believe terrorist acts in near future on U.S. soil), but also less confident the government could actually stop a future act (only 22% have “great deal of confidence”).

And finally, Americans are skeptical that all the effort and money is winning the war against terrorism. The largest percentage (46%) believe neither side is winning the war; i.e., terrorists vs. the U.S. and its allies.

See articles:
Washington Post: National security emerges as Obama strong point
Gallup Poll: Tens years in, many doubt U.S. is winning war on terrorism

Denver Labor Leaders Propose More City Unions – Bad Timing

Denver’s labor bosses have decided 2012 is the year to ask voters to step up unionization in the city. Their timing appears as bad as the idea.

• What part of “no” have labor leaders not heard? Twice in recent years, Denver voters have rejected expanding unions to more Denver city workers. The union bosses must believe that winning control of a majority of the Denver City Council, which they did in the recent election (often done in low-profile, low turnout, multi-candidate council races), will be the same as selling the broader Denver electorate on their incorporation of the city’s workforce. Big difference.

• Unions, especially government unions, are increasingly on the defensive. As the Wisconsin battle highlighted, unionized government workers’ generous health, pension and secure salaries have convinced many voters that it’s time to limit government employee perks, protective work rules and collective bargaining power.

• Denver, like many urban cities, has a major structural deficit, mostly reflecting salary commitments for unionized public safety officers and generous career service payouts.

• Denver is especially struggling with a high jobless rate. New job producing businesses usually believe aggressive municipal unionization will lead to higher taxes, more regulation and a good reason to not move in. Denver, in particular, is in a fierce competition with suburbs that have far lower levels of unionization.

• Of course, there will be a high voter turnout, most likely supporting President Obama. And, Democrats are more sympathetic toward unions than other voters. Still, this remains an uphill battle.

• And, of course, it appears that 2012 may be even less robust economically than this year, providing voters even more reason to limit raising the cost of government.

The most recent Gallup poll shows that 55 percent of Americans believe unions will be weaker in the future – a ten year high. Even a plurality of Democrats believes they will be weaker (46% Democrat, 58% Republican, 57% independent). In fact, a plurality of voters would like to see unions weaker (42%) versus only 30 percent who felt they should have more influence.

See also Denver Post article: Teamsters woo Denver city workers in push for collective bargaining

Arizona Primary Stays Put

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer decided against causing a frontloading free-for-all in the 2012 presidential primary season by moving up before their current February 28 date (January 31).  With the exception of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no states are to start formal procedures before March 6.  But, February 28 is less a problem since South Carolina, which is scheduled on that date, could just move up a few days and not start pushing events into December.

If no other states jump the gun, and several are still considering it, the opening nominating events are set and start with the Iowa caucus on February 6.  Colorado is on Super Tuesday, March 6.  It is likely the Republican nomination will still be at least a two-person contest on March 6.

There is a considerable lack of coherence and responsibility to the current calendar.  Others states, along with Arizona, considering going before March 6 are Florida (January 31) and Michigan (February 28).  If states have official events before March 6, they lose half their delegate vote at the convention.  They could stage debates or non-binding events to gain attention.

See Washington Post article:  2012 primary calendar:  Arizona starts the party

Auditor Gallagher Seems Fired Up

Usually low-profile, Dennis Gallagher has been in the news lately with lots of opinions, if not much authority.

He took after the Denver Public Library proposal for a district, usually an organization he supports (note: we have been a supporter of the Denver Public Library proposal for secure funding and more independence for years), and in a very angry press release, Gallagher said the Stock Show would not move “on my watch.”

He’s right on the Stock Show; it’s politically dead on arrival. In fact, it’s been so misplayed no Aurora deal may be possible. But, Dennis is a very political guy. Is the new fired up Gallagher a product of his view the transition to a new mayor and a new city council has created a cease in civic authority that a political entrepreneur, like Gallagher, can come to dominate or at least have some fun shaking up? Also, Dennis was not in the Hancock group, so maybe he’s organizing his version of the loyal opposition.

Watch Dennis, he may be Denver’s most savvy politician.

See Denver Post blog:  Denver Auditor Dennis Gallagher strongly opposes move of National Western Stock Show to Aurora