Democrats Go South

Similar to picking Denver by selecting Charlotte, Obama wants to strengthen his position in North Carolina, which he closely carried in 2008, and other mid-southern states, such as Virginia.  Although picking a convention city is mostly a sorting through prosaic arrangement factors, by not picking Ohio, Minnesota or Missouri, the Democrats may have signaled they’re putting more emphasis on new states Obama won in 2008 rather than states Democrats struggled with in 2010.

See NY Times blog:  Democrats Pick Charlotte for 2012 Convention

Republicans Target Montana Senate Seat

Six years ago, Jon Tester’s surprising Montana win gave the Democrats their one-vote takeover of the U.S. Senate and helped define the new Democrats in the West.

He’s up in 2012, and won’t have the anti-Bush Democratic surge of 2006 helping him. He’ll be running with Obama, who did not carry Montana in 2008.

See Politico: Top 10 most competitive Senate races

Denver’s Top Three Candidates

The latest Denver mayoral finance reports confirm there are three front running candidates at the start of February: Chris Romer reporting $228,000, James Mejia reporting $160,000 and Michael Hancock the same amount.

Hancock and Mejia represent candidates more inside the city political system and Romer outside. They reflect the city’s three ethnic groups, although they are mostly similar in ideology – center left.

Doug Linkhart is the most liberal candidate and only raised $38,000. Carol Boigon, a possible sleeper due to fundraising potential, raised only $52,000.

See Denver Post article:  Denver mayoral canidate Chris Romer led in 2010 fundraising

Business Welcomed Back to the White House

After two years of estrangement, President Obama and the White House team have seen the error of their ways and welcomed back big business.

The motivation for the shift lies mostly in the shellacking of last November (labor and liberals weren’t enough to hold off the wave) and the necessity to raise $1 billion for the 2012 campaign. Also important, Obama will look far more credible on the critical 2012 issue of jobs if he appears working closely with a supportive, smiling business and corporate community.

Most people on the left don’t believe this administration was particularly hostile to business during the first two years. The bailouts, stimulus, health care reform and even the financial regulations were either generous to business or far less onerous than a hard left agenda would have advocated. And, of course, the Bush era tax extension was a major victory for the corporate class.

But, the Obama administration and its Chicago clan did not welcome business into the White House, even on a social level, and Republicans made major fundraising gains, helping fuel the 2010 midterm victories.

Expect that to change. Most Americans don’t realize that Obama’s 2008 campaign, which opted out of campaign financing and its limits, was the most successful fundraising machine in history, and for a liberal Democrat, incredibly rich. Obama outspent John McCain by 50 percent, which paid for an onslaught of advertising that not only sealed Obama’s wins in key states, but turned them into near landslide victories after the recent history of close presidential elections.

See Washington Post article:  Obama's fundraisers are rebuilding bridges to big donors for 2012 campaign

Wadhams vs. Harvey

Douglas County is possibly the Republicans’ most important counties for elections and leadership: Frank McNulty, Speaker; Mark Scheffel, Minority Caucus Chair; and Carole Murray, Majority Caucus Whip. Mike May, Minority Leader last session, now has a candidate for Republican state chairperson. And, it’s not former State Senator Tom Wiens, who dropped out of his exploratory effort last week, but current State Senator Ted Harvey.

One would assume Dick Wadhams has the votes, but state chair politics often revolves around local and especially state legislative politics, and there’s no doubt this will be a race.

Americans Turn Isolationist

American engagement in the world is beginning to wane. A strong sense America is no longer able to compete with rapidly growing developing countries of China, India and Brazil; exhaustion with the expensive and unresolved wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; and disappointment that much of world opinion is hostile to American values, including nations we have helped for decades, is culminating in a growing view that international involvement is risky and unrewarding.

The three decades of American post-WWII dominance were based on economic, military and cultural power. The strength of each is now debated. The latest Washington Post poll shows just one-third of Americans believe an “interconnected global economy” is a good thing. In 2001, 60 percent of Americans believed globalization was a good thing.

The weakness of the international economy and its impact on America’s domestic wellbeing is now seen as a threat equal to international terrorism.

Previous polls reported in this blog highlight America’s fear of the rise of China and the U.S.’s corresponding decline. Polls also show Americans believe Iraq is not secure as either an ally or a democracy, and more people now believe we should leave Afghanistan than stay.

Internet and Social Media Dominate U.S. National and International News Viewing

The latest round of national media polling released prior to the State of the Union document the growing shift of Americans to non-traditional media.  One-half of the respondents in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll said they have a profile on Facebook or Linkedin.  In the same poll, cable channels dominate network for news of politics and current events (48% cable to 36% network).  And, a major irritant to Democratic partisans, Fox News dominates the cable marketplace.

The Pew Research Center’s latest research affirms the change in the public’s source of national and international news. The Internet is becoming increasingly competitive with television as America’s main source of news. As the Pew chart shows, television has declined from 82 percent in 2000 to 65 percent of the news marketplace in 2010.

Also during the last decade, the Internet audience for national and international news tripled from 13 percent in 2000 to 41 percent today. Newspapers that were cited by one-half the public as their news source in as recently as 2003 have dropped to 31 percent today. Radio, including talk radio, has remained stable at 16 percent.

Among people under 30 years old, the Internet beats television as their main source of national and international news.  Also, college graduates are now nearly as likely to depend on the Internet for news as television.

As other polls show, cable beats broadcast news, although even cable TV has declined from a high of 44 percent in 2002 to 36 percent now.

In a demonstration of this new media reality, the Michele Bachmann response to the State of the Union got more coverage than the official Republican response, at least partially because it powerfully used non-traditional media. It was developed for the Tea Party website to be streamed on the Internet, then was broadcast live on CNN and went viral on political websites among her friends and foes. Cable and radio talk shows made it a major topic and, finally, it was considered of sufficient news value to make broadcast (albeit largely in the context of possible divisions among the Republicans). Today, a major political speech must be accompanied by Internet postings from bloggers, video, Facebook, Twitter and circulation among all the available cable and radio talk shows.