2010 Predictions

The Denver Business Journal published our 2010 predictions as the new decade begins. Topics include: economy, national and Colorado politics, values, and communication technology. Change is accelerating and the oscillations are widening. The next decade will be a challenge for forecasters.

Democrats Would Not Lose the House if the Vote was Today, But Incumbents are in Trouble

Although it is unlikely the Democrats will lose 40 congressional seats in November, the number necessary for them to lose control of U.S. House of Representatives, Obama’s 50 percent average mid-term approval suggests a loss of at least 20 to 30 seats. But, there are other negative signs for Democrats, including high unemployment, low satisfaction with Congress and the direction of the economy, that suggest the party is on the edge of a major crisis.


Obama’s and Democrats’ problem is mostly related to the health care debate and his effort to force a party vote. Obama’s strategist believes passing reform will be better than passing nothing. It’s not clear that judgment is correct.

In general, presidents lose seats in mid-term elections. Clinton and G.W. Bush suffered losses sufficient to lose their U.S. House majorities in 1994 and 2006, respectively. Their average approval ratings were below 50 percent.


Bush and Clinton both gained seats in one of their mid-term elections, but both had high average approval ratings at that point in their presidencies. Obama is on the cusp. Hence, vulnerable Democratic incumbent congressional and senate candidates are mostly on their own.

(See post on Fox News)

Obama Fails to Reassemble the 2008 Coalition

As the Democratic congressional leadership and President Barack Obama attempt a final push on health care, an examination of the election results from the three statewide elections since November strongly suggests vulnerable Democratic congressional and senate incumbents are on their own. Even with prodigious effort, Obama was unable to reassembly his 2008 winning coalition.

In particular, independent votes shifted to Republicans in big numbers. In New Jersey, Obama won 51 percent of independents in 2008, but Gov. Corzine only won 30 percent. In Virginia, Obama’s independent support dropped 16 points in the Deeds race.

In Massachusetts, Democrat Martha Coakley saw a drop off in blue collar Democratic areas, such as Lowell of 18% and the smaller towns in central Massachusetts by similar percentages.

Massachusetts held especially onerous news for Democrats because of the importance of the health care bill to the Democratic loss. It suggests that forcing a Democratic vote on health care may be the worst political decision since President G.W. Bush and Karl Rove believed the war strategy could not be changed and Republicans would hold the line with small losses in November of 2006.

Nine Senate Seats up in the West in 2010

Colorado and Nevada are the most competitive state races out of nine western senate seats up in 2010. Other Democratic races being watched are in California, Oregon and Washington.

Ten Governorships up in the West in 2010

There are ten gubernatorial elections in western states this November. Colorado’s may be the most competitive, but there are eight seats that are either open (California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon and Wyoming) or have appointed incumbents (Alaska, Arizona, and Utah).

Americans’ Rating of Countries

A couple of recent Gallup polls show support for Israelis is at record highs (63%) compared to Palestinians and the favorability rating of Israel remains high (67%) compared to the Palestinian Authority.


Republicans have significantly increased their support for Israelis (85%), but Democratic support remains low at 48 percent.

In a second report that compares Americans’ rating of a wide list of countries, Canada is most favored, and Iran, North Korea and the Palestinian Authority the least. Israel is in a second tier of nations with India, France and Egypt.

Obama Losing Independents

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has dropped below 50 percent as he begins his latest and possibly last effort to pass health care. The survey was conducted the week (Feb. 15-21) of the health care summit and Obama’s introduction of his own plan.

The likelihood he can sell his health care plan with his own popularity is slim. In fact, his approval rating among independents hasn’t been above 50 percent since August when health care became so controversial.

Obama has told Democrats that they should vote on health care and let the voters decide the issue in November. Unfortunately, he’s of no help to Democrats.

(See Gallup poll)