RTD Tax Increase in Trouble

The defeat of Aurora’s library tax increase highlighted the metro voters’ cautious mood.

The loss has major impact for a possible 2010 or 2011 regional sales tax increase for RTD. Ed Tauer, mayor of Aurora, engineered the library election as a finance strategy to help balance the city’s books. Tauer is the leading advocate for a RTD tax increase. Earlier this year, he advocated putting it on this November’s ballot.

The RTD tax was in trouble before this new dour election environment. The 2004 sales tax campaign over-promised and under-delivered by a factor of 100 percent. RTD now wants to double the 2004 tax increase.

RTD’s raison d’être has been significantly undermined by unusually aggressive columns in the Denver Post, questioning both the reason for mass transit expansion and RTD’s honesty and competence.

As I said in the Denver Post Nov. 5 election article by Jessica Fender, “The drama of the losses in terms of taxes is going to put tremendous chill on the forces who want to put something on the ballot – Even 2011 is in question.”

The Denver Post then editorialized on November 6 the loss “could mean significant trouble for large taxing districts and governments like RTD.” The new election environment compounds RTD’s already substantial problems.

(See other Denver Post and New York Times articles)

Is this a Moment of Pragmatism?

The Republican victories on Nov. 4 were at least partially due to the candidates focusing on the economy and avoiding divisive social issues. Although a Republican candidate is stronger with an authentic relationship with Party’s core social constituencies, he is the most likely winner if he can focus primarily on the key issues, which today are economy and growth of government.

In Colorado, the Sept. 17 Tarrance Group poll showed Colorado voters are primarily concerned about the economy and jobs.

Are Republicans sufficiently hungry for victory after losing three straight elections that they will downplay candidates’ social history and concentrate on their fundraising process and fiscal conservatism?

If they can finesse the tension between social and economic issues, they can likely start winning again in Colorado.

(See Denver Post article)

NPR Lists Colorado as a Battleground State

In an NPR series previewing the 2010 elections, Colorado was highlighted as a likely battleground state.

Unaffiliated voters are the key. The state’s partisans are closely balanced. Unaffiliated voters can tip the state left or right. They represent a quarter of the electorate and a third of all registered voters. Because they are only weakly linked to the parties and more subject to the ebb and flow of media covered issues, if the national mood shifts, Colorado shifts.

I said that Obama and the national Democratic agenda was struggling with independent voters in Colorado compared to November 2008. A series of Colorado polls since July have shown Obama’s job performance approval below 50 percent.

Republicans appear to have reframed their message on the economy and government spending. It is a message more in alignment with unaffiliated voters’ concerns than the social issues that were salient earlier in the decade. Abortion, gay rights and illegal immigration are more polarizing and less on the public’s mind.

(Read or listen to story on NPR)

As Expected, 2009 was a Bad Year for New Taxes

There were very few tax and bond initiatives on the 2009 November Colorado election because local governments and their consultants recognized that the economy would be a major detriment to passage and that few politicians and other civic leaders wanted to advocate tax increases.

And, of the few revenue measures that were on the ballot, there were high-profile losses, most importantly two of Colorado’s largest city lost tax increase efforts for what was described by the campaigners as critical to maintain libraries (Aurora) and police and fire personnel in Colorado Springs.

The national political mood didn’t help local tax advocates. Conservatives have been energized by the “too much, too fast, too expensive” talk show dialogue, and they were the dominant voting bloc in most of the low turnout elections.

There are some local government advocates and liberals who are in denial about the national mood. They believe the election was mostly positive. They cite the upstate New York congressional race and a few successful local bond and tax increases. But, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and reams of polling data show 2008 is over and 2010 will be much tougher for raising taxes and Democrats.

(See Denver Post and 9News articles)

Ritter Suffers From Economic Downturn

The economy is the top issue for Colorado voters and Governor Bill Ritter is losing the vote of confidence on “improving the state’s economy and creating jobs.” In the new Tarrance Group poll of mid-September, only 41 percent of voters approved his performance on the economy, but 53 percent disapproved.

Unfortunately for Ritter, more voters say the state is on the wrong track (48%) than say it’s headed in the right direction (41%). His overall job approval was similar to previous polls. Less than half the state’s voters approve (48%) and nearly as many disapprove (46%).

Although early polls are only snapshots of fast moving rivers, Ritter’s biggest concern must be that 56 percent of the voters in this sample wanted a “new person” elected governor.

One slight good piece of news is that a plurality of voters judge Ritter a moderate and 40 percent call him a liberal. Only 5 percent see him as conservative. It is better to be seen as a moderate in a Colorado general election. This poll had 54 percent of its sample self-identifying as conservative – a high percentage, but those are likely voters. They are older and lean more Republican.


(See Associated Press article)

Obama Endorsement Can Help With Democrats, But Not Statewide

Another poll, this one by well-known Republican pollster Lance Tarrance, shows less than half of Colorado voters approve (48%) President Barack Obama’s job performance, with his disapproval just as high (47%).

Obama’s lowest job approval is on Colorado’s Eastern High Plains (35%) and is especially ominous for newly elected Democratic Congressman Betsy Markey.

But, in Democratic strongholds of Denver and the north suburbs of Boulder and Adams counties, he scores above 67 percent. Hence, assuming Colorado Democrats don’t resent Washington politicians and the Democratic establishment trying to tell them who to vote for, Obama’s endorsement of Senator Michael Bennet should be a help among Democrats, not a hindrance.


(See Denver Post article)

Establishment Candidates Winning Early Primary Test

In a new poll from the Tarrance Group, establishment-endorsed primary candidates Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Jane Norton win their respective primaries in an early test.


Bennet is only ahead of his Democratic opponent, Andrew Romanoff, by 14 percentage points. Early primary polls are notoriously volatile and largely a reflection of early name identification.

Norton is 30 points up on Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. Rumors among Republicans indicate Buck may drop out. If true, Norton is the likely nominee and spared a serious primary. Romanoff will easily make the primary ballot’s 30 percent threshold and be able to run a campaign into the August primary.