On a snowy January morning, more than thirty Denver metro mayors were presented a darker, more challenging vision of Colorado’s next few years. Pollster Floyd Ciruli reported that the boom in population and economic activity generated from 2010 to 2020 came to an abrupt halt in the pandemic. Colorado is now entering a more difficult environment where local government will have less sales tax revenues and face escalating costs just as federal funds are diminishing.
Ciruli shared these main points:
- Colorado is entering a new era following the booming 2010 decade. This isn’t a one or two year shift.
- Population that went up nearly 15 percent (744,000) from 2010 to 2020 and added a new Congressional seat has now slowed to a trickle in the metro area. The inflow of one recent new group of residents, migrants, will end completely.
- Job growth in Colorado is slowing and unemployment is climbing.
- Sales tax which is the main source of revenue for cities has been flat in the metro region for two years (see chart below).
- The contraction of tax revenue is happening just as cities face increased costs due to general inflation and spikes in the costs of labor. Cities and the state are struggling to balance their books.
- COVID relief dollars have ended and federal funding is entering a period of austerity.
The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation, and the cost of living.
