Trump Scrapes the Guardrails

Elon Musk took center stage at President Donald Trump's first Cabinet meeting.
Photo: USA Today

A month after the inauguration, Donald Trump is starting to scrape the guardrails I identified on January 24 related to public approval, inflation, the Dow, and the House majority.

Polling
The polling average, steady at 49 percent approval, hasn’t moved much, but some recent polls have reported approvals in the mid-40’s and disapproval has climbed from 43 percent on January 31 to 48 percent today, signaling the surge of White House news may be generating a negative reaction.

Inflation Increased
The December reported inflation rate was 2.9% and 3.0% in January, not a big change but moving in the wrong direction. It was interpreted, including by the Fed, as reason to hold interest rates steady and express caution concerning reductions in 2025. Trump was defensive and said it was Joe Biden’s fault.

Market Down
The markets have been nervous since Trump began speaking so aggressively about tariffs and mass deportations in January, actions which were seen as disruptive and likely inflationary. The Dow was 43,487 on the January 20 inauguration, jumped up to 44,544 at the end of January, and is 43,239 today(2-27-25), below the inaugural Dow average and volatile in recent days. The mass of policy and political disruption is generating caution.

Congress Struggles with Budget
The government avoided a possible shutdown by one vote in the House. Now, a long process is required to pass a reconciliation bill through both chambers. It will be difficult.

Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity

Colorado Has Entered a Challenging Era of Austerity
The tsunami effects of “Shock and Awe” have just slammed into Colorado’s local governments, hospitals, and education and research institutions with the possible loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in grant funds. It is now clear the Trump administration’s sudden curtailment of federal funding will be enormous and likely long lasting.

Opinion column by Floyd Ciruli was published in Denver Gazette February 20, 2025. It was circulated by Opinion Today, a national newsletter featuring a daily roundup of poll releases, commentary and podcasts, on February 25, 2025. The column reflects a presentation to Denver’s metro mayors in January 2025.

Gazette Article
Opinion Today Article

Shock and Awe Begins to Move the Polls

President Trump signs a series of executive orders at the White House on Jan. 20. Photo: Jabin Botsford /The Washington Post via Getty Images

During the first month, the White House launched hundreds of initiatives, with executive orders on tariffs, deportations and funding freezes and layoffs. Interspersed, high profile foreign policy has taken the center stage from bold declarations related to Canada, Greenland and Panama to pivots away from Ukraine toward Russia in the European war. Although it remains very early in the presidency, under conditions of “Shock and Awe” and “flooding the zone” early polls are picking up the impact of the executive orders and the nascent reaction from media coverage, commentary, protests, and social media.

Polling: Approval Down
Not surprising, President Trump’s approval polling average (538, RCP) hasn’t moved much since the inauguration (538, 50% on Jan. 24 with 42% disapproval) (RCP 51% approval, 43% disapproval) but disapproval is up 5 points and a host of most recent polls shows downward movement in his approval and an increase in disapproval.

Additional observations from early polls are Elon Musk and billionaires in general have a very negative image and are seen as having too much power. Several Trump- specific policies are not seen in a positive light, for example, the mass firings and the takeover of Gaza.

American Voters Are Center Right

Illustration from causes.com

American voters self-identified their ideology in the annual Gallup Poll as 37% conservative, 34% moderate and only 25% liberal. Overall they are moderate to slightly more conservative.

Parties Too Extreme
Both parties are more ideologically extreme than voters at large. Democrats are now 55 percent liberal with a tiny conservative wing of 9% and a long declining moderate block of 34%. Democrats shed most of their considerable moderate and conservative voters in the 1990’s. Republicans are 77% conservative identifiers. The party has been over 60 percent conservative since the 1990’s. There are only small moderate (18%) and liberal (4%) wings.

Democrats Must Move to Middle
In competitive states and congressional districts, Democrats are too liberal for voters’ preferences and Republicans too conservative. Hence, the endless close competition. But Democrats in particular need to dampen their most liberal agendas and constituents to appeal to the more moderate, broader electorate. Fortunately, recent Gallup polling shows that in light of the last election “a plurality of Democrats would like their party to become more moderate” (an 11 point increase since 2021).

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/656636/democrats-favor-party-moderation-past.aspx

Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation

Data: Floyd Ciruli, Ciruli Associates; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

John Frank, co-author of Axios Denver’s online newsletter, wrote up my recent presentation to Denver metro mayors. Some of his observations:

Population Growth

• Population growth is flat
• Job growth is slowing
• Sales tax collections are falling
• Real estate values are steady

Why does this matter?

• Welcome to “the new era of austerity” in Colorado as described to metro mayors recently by pollster Floyd Ciruli.
• The stalled economic pictures comes as costs continue to escalate and federal dollars are vanishing.

Ciruli’s Comments

• “The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation and cost of living.”

READ ARTICLE

Independents Dominate National and Colorado Political Identity

State Dept./Doug Thompson

One of the big political stories out of the last decade of Colorado politics has been that the surge of new registered voters are now as likely to register Unaffiliated (49%) as either Democrat (26%) or Republican (23%). The diminished Democratic Party is slightly ahead of Republicans, who were the largest registered group in the beginning of the century. Independents have more than doubled from 30 percent in 2000, mostly since 2010.

The shift in political identity tracks the changes in America as reported by the Gallup poll. Independents are now 43 percent of Americans’ party preference and Democrats and Republicans are tied at 38 percent each. Independent identification jumped 8 points since 2008.

Will Trade War, Deportations and Funding Freeze Hit the Guardrails

Musk, his son, and Trump in the Oval Office
Photo: Eric Lee / The New York Times

As of January 31, 2025, ten days into the new administration, President Donald Trump began with a 49 percent approval (9 national polls in RCP, 11 in 538) and a 44,544 DOW.

The first weekend, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as immigrant raids and deportations started. He immediately suspended Canada and Mexico’s tariffs for negotiations.

The second week saw a freeze of federal funding for grant programs, forced buyout of federal employees, the end of USAID, the rumored end of the Department of Education and a White House musing on a Riviera in Gaza.

Is there an executive order that Americans won’t tolerate? Congress is mostly silent and the courts are cumbersome and slow. It is still early, but reaction to the looming trade war, deportations, and massive budget cuts may begin to show up in public opinion and economic data.

Will the guardrails (see below) begin to restrain the “shock and awe,” channel its direction or even stop it? Or is the road ahead clear and fast?

Ciruli Interviews Secretaries of State Kerry and Albright

Ciruli, Kerry and Albright, 2018

In 2018, Mr. Ciruli interviewed Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeline Albright at DU’s Korbel School annual dinner. In attendance were former Colorado U.S. Senators Gary Hart and Hank Brown and current Senator, Michael Bennet.

Mr. Ciruli taught public opinion and policy at the University of Denver and the University of Colorado in Denver. He was a Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs. He was the founding Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies.

Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C., and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli was vice-chair of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.

Will Republicans Lose The House?

Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

History shows the 2026 mid-term should punish President Trump and Republicans, at least costing them their 5-seat majority in the House. In 2018, as Trump focused on caravans in Mexico and Democrats abortion, the first two years of chaos saw a 41-seat loss and brought Trump’s nemesis, Nancy Pelosi, to the speakership. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had similar experiences.

Will Trump be different in the 2026 mid-terms? The following reflects a dialogue with Denver Metro Mayors Caucus at their annual retreat:

• Trump has been here before and realizes the danger of 2026. Since the election tends to be a referendum on Presidential performance, he could adjust the pace and volume of disruption.
• Anticipating the controversial aspect of his agenda, Trump picked cabinet officers who are both loyal and proven communicators, especially on Fox News and alternative venues. All the disruption will be better defended than in the first term.
• The “shock and awe” and “Flood the Zone” strategies have fragmented and muted most opposition. The Democratic counter attack has yet to gain traction.
• Democrats are still struggling with what happened. In 2016, a close election looked like an anomaly and Trump’s first two years of chaos was great campaign material. But his 2024 win, while historically close, left no doubt he had made inroads into the Democratic coalition and was dominating the top issues of economy, immigration and cultural overreach.

But it is very early, and Trump’s policies are highly disruptive. His approval, the market, living cost, and unemployment could move in a negative direction.

Colorado Enters a New Era of Austerity

On a snowy January morning, more than thirty Denver metro mayors were presented a darker, more challenging vision of Colorado’s next few years. Pollster Floyd Ciruli reported that the boom in population and economic activity generated from 2010 to 2020 came to an abrupt halt in the pandemic. Colorado is now entering a more difficult environment where local government will have less sales tax revenues and face escalating costs just as federal funds are diminishing.

Ciruli shared these main points:

• Colorado is entering a new era following the booming 2010 decade. This isn’t a one or two year shift.
• Population that went up nearly 15 percent (744,000) from 2010 to 2020 and added a new Congressional seat has now slowed to a trickle in the metro area. The inflow of one recent new group of residents, migrants, will end completely.
• Job growth in Colorado is slowing and unemployment is climbing.
• Sales tax which is the main source of revenue for cities has been flat in the metro region for two years (see chart below).
• The contraction of tax revenue is happening just as cities face increased costs due to general inflation and spikes in the costs of labor. Cities and the state are struggling to balance their books.
• COVID relief dollars have ended and federal funding is entering a period of austerity.

The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation, and the cost of living.