Monday, June 24, 2019

Warren on the Move; Harris in Trouble

The latest national and key in-state polls show Elizabeth Warren and her “plan a day” strategy is gathering strength in the still much divided Democratic presidential primary field. In the two latest national polls reported (Economist/YouGov and Monmouth University) in RealClearPolitics, Warren is now ahead of Bernie Sanders by a combined 5 points. Even more impressive, she’s beginning to close in on Sanders in Iowa and California. Bernie Sanders’ status as the frontrunner of the left wing of the Democratic Party appears over.

It is the California poll that should most concern Kamala Harris. Her campaign failed to take off after the impressive announcement and she has languished in fourth and fifth places, tied most recently with Pete Buttigieg. But, to have any shot at the nomination, she must dominate her home state of California. Unfortunately for her credibility in the race, the latest poll by the LA Times conducted by veteran pollster, Mark DiCamillo, at Berkeley, she is in fourth, behind Joe Biden, Warren and Sanders, with Buttigieg a close fifth.

Harris still has much potential. She needs to bring her talent in the congressional hearing setting to her performance in the debates. Also, a week before Super Tuesday, the South Carolina primary gives her a powerful constituency of African American women who could put her on the top of the field. And, even a fourth or fifth position should keep someone in the race through Super Tuesday. Nonetheless, not dominating California is a disappointment.

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