Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Hickenlooper Starts the Post Labor Day Campaign Ahead

He Leads in Three-Way Race for Governor
Garnering 54 Percent of Denver Metro Voter Support

John Hickenlooper may be leading a charmed life. His first run for any political office – the mayor of Denver in 2003 – was pretty easy even though he began as an underdog. After winning his second term as mayor in a cakewalk, he is poised to become the next governor of Colorado. In what is, by any other measure, a great Republican election year, his two opponents have combined support of only 42 percent of voters. Barring any unforeseen event, Hickenlooper, a Democrat, should easily win this race, having never run statewide or for partisan office before.

As the campaigns begin their post-Labor Day sprint to early voting and the November 2 Election Day, Hickenlooper is winning a three-way governor’s race with 44 percent of the vote. In the Denver metro area, he has 54 percent of voter support. Statewide, embattled Republican nominee Dan Maes has 28 percent and American Constitution candidate and former Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo has 14 percent support. One out of ten voters is undecided.
The statewide survey of 550 likely Colorado voters was conducted by Ciruli Associates from August 19 to 23, 2010. The political questions were a separate section of a survey sponsored by a consortium of grocery and convenience stores. The statistical range of error is ±4.2 percentage points. Ciruli Associates is responsible for the questions and analysis.
• Although Maes dominates among Republicans in this poll, 55 percent compared to 20 percent for Tancredo, a substantial number may have since become undecided in light of Maes’ loss of major party endorsements and controversies over his resume.
• Hickenlooper has support from 78 percent of Democrats and a substantial plurality (45%) of unaffiliated voters, while his opponents combined have only 32 percent of unaffiliated voters. He receives 13 percent of Republicans. In the six-county Denver metro area, Hickenlooper dominates with 54 percent of the vote compared to only 19 percent for Maes and 16 percent for Tancredo. Maes’ strongest region is the Western Slope (47% support).

·         In spite of his claims that he can win a two-way or three-way race, Tom Tancredo barely registers support from Republicans (20%) or unaffiliated (14%) voters.  Even among self-identified conservatives, Tancredo receives only 22 percent compared to 50 percent for Maes.  Whatever Tancredo claims, he enters the post Labor Day race perceived as a spoiler by most Republicans and a single issue radical by most others.

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