Five-term Congressman Mike Coffman’s district has drifted to the left in the three elections since 2012 when Barack Obama won the district by 18,000 while Coffman beat the Democrat by 7,000. More spectacular was his victory in 2016 by 31,000, while Hillary Clinton was winning his seat by 34,000.
But today, polls and national pundits believe his reelection is in serious trouble. The respected Cook Political Report now rates the race “lean Democrat” from “toss-up.”
- The only current non-partisan published poll from the New York Times and Siena College reports Democrat Jason Crow has an 11-point advantage, 51 percent to 40 percent for Coffman.
- Two new partisan polls have the district at 11 points for Democrat Jason Crow (from left-leaning PAC) and 1 point for Crow from a respected Republican firm.
- Nate Silver’s eponymous 538 gives the Democrats an 82 percent chance of winning the district from a calculation that includes partisanship and voting history of the district, campaign funding and challenger’s experience.
- The Democrats have been pouring money into the district, but are now so confident their House Majority PAC has withdrawn some funds to place elsewhere.