Trump’s Mandate Enough

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Monday, including one to end DEI programs. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

President Trump came into office claiming his modest victory was a mandate for aggressive presidential action on most anything he said on the campaign trail. With a blizzard of executive orders (213) and other presidential actions (budget shifts, domestic troop movements), Trump has flooded the news cycle and overwhelmed much of the opposition. Finally, the public is saying enough.

The polling data shows Trump’s November collapse, which began in later October (negative 8 points Real Clear Politics), became a rout by Thanksgiving (down 13 points). Polling site Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points. The Decision Desk HQ has him down 14 points (Reported in Hill).

The following chart shows the November 2024 election, which Trump won with 1.5 percent, and approval and disapproval polling showing on November 4, 2025 election day, he was down 11 points and on November 27 he was in negative territory by 13 and 17 points. His approval has declined 8 to 10 points since his 2024 election.

	November 5 2024 Election	November 4 2025 Polling (RTC)	November 27 2025 Polling (RTC)	November 27 2025 Polling (FPO)
Trump	49.8%	43%	43%	40%
Harris	48.3%	54%	56%	57%
Difference	-1.5	-11	-13	-17

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

November 4 provided hard evidence of voters’ anti-Trump mood to accompany his negative polling (soft evidence), highlighting his political problem with the economy and especially inflation.

RELATED:
Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue November 20, 2025

Speaker Johnson Ties House to Trump

House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., points to President Donald Trump after he signed his signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House, Friday, July 4, 2025, in Washington, surrounded by members of Congress. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The result this November 4 was similar to President Trump’s 2018 election when Republicans lost 41 seats. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor performance rating was down 13 points. This was an anti-Trump vote. Many of the groups that moved toward him in the 2024 Biden/Harris election shifted to Democratic candidates in high profile races. Also, the anti-Trump mood affected non-partisan races and initiatives. It was the prime mover in California’s Proposition 50’s sweep of the state. In Colorado, it helped turn out left-leaning voters who supported liberal and labor-endorsed city council and school board candidates.

Speaker Johnson’s weak position in terms of his majority and his ascension’s dependence on Trump reinforces his inability to get any distance from the President. He could be headed for a short, humiliating speakership.

He has diminished his office and the institution.

• Kept the House out of session during a record-long government shutdown and refused to swear in the newly elected Congresswoman from Arizona, as part of the effort to derail the Epstein files’ release (he lost the discharge petition 427 to 1).
• Ignores the repeated and systematic shift of spending authority from the House and its committees to Trump and the executive branch. In fact, cheered the Supreme Court to grant Trump power to levy tariffs without congressional approval.
• Called No Kings rally attendees Marxists and Hate-America participants, mimicking Trump’s rhetoric.
• Represents Bossier City, Louisiana, noted for its casinos and a high poverty rate. Shows little interest in constituents’ food insecurity or lack of health care.

Large Mid-Term Election Losses by Presidents Since 1960

Year	President	Party	Loss	Comment
1962	LBJ	D	47	Vietnam/Civil Rights
1974	Ford	R	48	Watergate/Pardon
1994	Clinton	D	54	Lost House/Health Care
2006	Bush	R	32	2nd Mid-Term/Iraq
2010	Obama	D	63	Health Care/Tea Party
2018	Trump	R	41	Repeal Obama Care

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

Mid-term elections are usually considered a referendum on the administration’s performance. This will be Trump’s second mid-term, within an unusual second term. Notice W. Bush lost 32 seats in his second mid-term. Since the 1960s there have been 5 losses of more than 40 seats. Does the President Trump partnership and Speaker Johnson’s leadership suggest a landslide?

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Will Democrats Win the House?

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) departs the House floor
Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Since November 4 election results combined with President Trump’s abysmal polling numbers and the House’s Epstein and other controversies, the viewpoint is growing among political observers and office holders that Democrats will win the House of Representatives. It may not be by the 2018 landslide of 41 seats, but it’s very likely to be by at least 20 seats.

Some observations by the pundit class:

• Trump is now at a low for his second term and similar to his 2018 November debacle. Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points (40% approval). Even Republican-oriented RCP has Trump out by 13 points (43% approval). (In late October 2018, he had 41% approval in Gallup, 39% in CNN).
• To win against the rigidity of the congressional field with only about 60 competitive seats out of 435, and the President’s ongoing effort to gain advantage with redistricting and voter suppression, Democrats will need to be ahead by at least 8 points. Fortunately for them, that was about the point spread their candidates beat Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote in New Jersey and Virginia.
• Democrats are currently ahead by 5 points in the RCP generic ballot, a reversal of the 3 point lead Republicans held during the first 7 months of the President’s second term.
• Pundits, of course, try to model the election and 2026 looks more like the close 2020 election Biden won than the 2024 election Trump won. Core Democratic groups appear to be solidifying against Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and his tariffs as an economic boom.
• Finally, it’s clear increasing numbers of Republicans in more competitive seats or leaders responsible for maintaining majorities realize that showing some independence from Trump is becoming politically necessary.

Trump is becoming a lame duck earlier than expected.

RELATED:
Will Republicans Lose The House? February 6, 2025

Metro Sales Tax Revenue Finally Up

After two years of flat sales tax revenue collection in the Denver metro area, a modest increase has been reported. As of August 2025, revenue is up by 1.6 percent or about $1 million on one-tenth of a percent tax, or $2 million by year’s end.

The aggregate data doesn’t show which of the seven metro counties is growing. Denver still reports a slow sales tax revenue increase.

Denver Metro Area Sales Tax Revenue Changes

Years	Revenue from Tenth of Cent	Increase/Decrease from Previous Year
2018	$63 M	5.4%
2019	$66 M	4.8%
2020	$64 M	-2.8%
2021	$76 M	18.8%
2022	$86 M	12.2%
2023	$86 M	0.5%
2024	$86 M	0.1%
2025 (Sept.)	$64 M	1.6%

Ciruli Associates 2025

Kevin Flynn Pulls Denver to the Center

Photo via Facebook

As the national battle over congressional district lines proves, how the election system is designed makes a difference in the outcome. Denver’s city council in recent years has lurched to the political left partially because the city’s at-large city council election procedure allowed candidates representing marginal views to win a seat with as little as 16 percent of the vote due to the lack of a runoff. The process was largely inherited from usual circumstances and court cases since the 1970s.

Long-term Denver City Councilperson Kevin Flynn, a Democratic political moderate, proposed a fix. He got a divided council to place it on the ballot and won on November 4th with 55 percent of the vote. Flynn believes candidates regardless of views should have at least half of the electorate supporting them in the final vote.

Congratulations, Kevin

Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue

Photo via Politico

President Donald Trump is now 13 points negative on approval and disapproval, a record low for him (11-15-25). He was a major liability for Republican and conservative candidates and causes in the November 4 off-year election. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor reputation was. Democrats swept governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, the Mayor's election in New York, and numerous lower-level elections, including in the south. It even handicapped conservatives in non-partisan city and school elections in Colorado and helped California’s Proposition 50 supporters.

Trump’s net approval began dropping rapidly since the shutdown started on October 1st. Net approval of his handling the shutdown was -27 percent on November 3, 2025 (YouGov).

In general, the public has been unhappy with Trump’s performance on the economy. He has a net -15 and a majority of people report spending more on groceries (71%) and electricity (59%) as reported October 28 (Washington Post, ABC News Ipsos).

In the first major voter test of Trump’s nearly 10 months into his second term, Democrats and more liberal forces swept to victory arguing Trump promised to deliver an economic turnaround had failed. Trump citing the stock market boom was not enough or relevant to their lives

Blue Wave Sweeps into Denver

A voter drops off a ballot on Election Day in Denver’s Central Park neighborhood.
Photo: CPR News

The anti-Trump Blue Wave that swept November 4 partisan elections in the East also hit Colorado’s off-year non-partisan ballot. Jessica Seaman reported in the Denver Post (11-7-25) on school board wins by labor candidates in Denver and Douglas with addition pick-ups in areas recently dominated by conservative school boards in Mesa and Montezuma counties. She reports 80 percent of labor-endorsed candidates won statewide.

I was quoted that this wave election may reflect both a reaction against the powerful conservative school board movement that gained majorities after the pandemic – no school closures, no masks, no no-trans sports or bathrooms, book censorship – all of which Trump and the Trump administration supported.

I speculated that this may be a harbinger of a broader backlash against Trump and his control of national politics. I specifically cited one of Colorado’s most Republican counties, Douglas, is in transition to a more liberal position.

“Tuesday’s results “may be a backlash from the incredible conservative school movement that got started during the pandemic,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

“(If) leadership in Washington doesn’t read it correctly, it’s going to be a very bad 2026 for them.”

More broadly, Douglas County’s elections may be on the “cutting edge” of the shift away from the conservative school movement, Ciruli said, noting voters’ rejection of a home-rule measure this year.

“Their elections for partisan office are less overwhelming in recent years,” he said. “Their margins have been getting more and more narrow.”

READ ARTICLE:
Here’s a look at how some school board races ended up CPR News, Nov, 5, 2025