Democratic Race to Replace Newsom Begins

California State Capitol, AP Photo/Juliana Yamada

California is about to change governors. As Governor Newsom ends his term and the Democratic Party struggles for a strategy and message after November 5, a host of Democrats are beginning the early primary maneuvering.

A new statewide poll of all voters from UC Berkeley shows the early order of names, mostly sorted by their name identification, with liberal former US Senate candidate Katie Porter ahead and followed by more than a dozen lesser known politicians.

Republicans came in second and third. The table shows the top seven names.

The field then drops to less than 7 percent of the 1st or 2nd choice among voters. Included in the “other” category was Rob Bonta, California Attorney General, Betty Yee, former State Controller, and Rick Caruso, L.A. businessman. One large caveat is, if Kamala Harris jumps in the race she would start with a third of the vote as “very likely” to support her and another 13 percent “somewhat likely” (46% total).

The Democrats begin the race with a major advantage in the general election. However, their effort to adjust to the November 5 voter slippage and address the state’s population slow down and affordability crisis will be watched by Democrats nationwide.

Newsom Begins Tough National Race

Newsom and Trump in 2018 | Photo: Politico/Paul Kitagaki Jr.

Governor Gavin Newsom, who is term limited, has a major handicap as he begins presidential field testing, namely California. A new Census report shows the state is still slated to lose more congressional clout as people leave the state. It is judged in repeated national polls as a failed state rated “least desirable to live” and ranks last again in U-Haul move ins. And in a November revolt 68 percent of the voters enacted harsh new penalties for property crimes and drugs, defying Democrats who had advocated lighter sentences. They also dumped two Democratic District Attorneys.

California lost its first congressional district in its history after the 2020 reapportionment. A new population report shows if current population trends hold, the state could lose four congressional seats in 2030. The big winners are Texas and Florida, which could gain seven.

The most frequent complaint is the high cost of living in California. Unfortunately, Democrats have contributed to the affordability crisis with regulations, taxes and mandated wage increases (highest in cost of living in country, 4th highest tax burden).
OC Register, Lansner 12-22-24

Newsom has two years to show he’s not the problem and there are some solutions. It won’t be easy.

Polis Term Limited - Democratic Race Starts

Polis with Chainsaw | Photo: Nick Coltrain, Denver Post

Governor Jared Polis’s chain sawing of outdated executive orders got him national attention of Trump officials. While the term limited Polis is beginning to adjust his image for his next political move, Colorado Democrats have begun the silent primary to replace him for 2026. One congressperson and two of the state’s constitutional officers, both term limited have been tested in a recent statewide poll of prominent Democrats. The results, mostly reflect name identification at this early, early point.

Attorney General Phil Weiser who had the lowest name identification has already announced his campaign, no doubt to make up being less known. He is also considered more moderate in Democratic Party circles but should have an opportunity to raise his profile and partisan edge engaging with the Trump Administration. Jena Griswold, the highly partisan Secretary of State, had the highest favorable rating among Democratic-leaning voters but also the highest unfavorable. Although Congressperson Joe Neguse is not well known, he had a high favorability rating and would be a formidable candidate. Ken Salazar, former Senator and current Ambassador to Mexico, is both well known and popular, but he considered the race in 2018 and decided against it. At 69, he would be the oldest candidate in a field when generational change is being widely discussed. Others could have been tested, such as Congresspersons Jason Crow and Brittany Pettersen.

It should be a competitive primary.

Reported by Seth Klamann, Denver Post 12-17-24, Marshall Zelinger 9 KUSA 12-16-24

Orange County Democrats Exceed Expectations

OC Congressional Map via https://ocvote.gov

In a difficult election year, Orange County Democrats helped reduce the Republican House majority to just 5 seats by holding on to two vulnerable Congressional districts and ousting a high profile Republican incumbent.

• Mike Levin reelected – 52.2% (CA-49)
• Dave Min holds Katie Porter’s seat – 51.4% (CA-47)
• Derek Tran defeats incumbent Michelle Steel – 50.1% (CA-45)

Kamala Harris (59.8% to 47.1%) carried the county while winning statewide by substantial margin (20 points). Democrats accomplished these feats while voters were expressing extreme concern about crime (Prop 36 passed 74.5%) and rejected a number of historically favored positions including rent control (lost 36%), minimum wages (lost 38.5%). Also, Adam Schiff lost the county to Steve Garvey by 14,000 votes. He won the state with 58 percent.

OC voters did support ballot issues funding school bonds and climate (53%) and marriage rights (57%). In general, the OC was competitive for the parties and moderate to conservative on the issues.

One reason the county has become competitive for Democrats after a long history of Republican dominance is grass roots organizations. A top organized group in the county is the Democratic Women of South Orange County. With over 500 members they raised and donated more than $170,000 for candidates. Very importantly, they provide a forum for Democratic office holders and seekers, along with a myriad of top presenters. Their meetings regularly attract more than 300 attendees. They are making a difference in the OC.

RELATED:
Orange County Voters Support Law and Order and Democrats Hold Ground Nov 21, 2024

Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market

Donald Trump won the presidency largely on nostalgia for his economic success in his first term. In 2016, he inherited a recovery from the great recession of 2008 and then accelerated it with a substantial tax cut, jawboning down interest rates and lifting some regulatory burden. The Dow rose 10,000 points from 19,000 shortly after his November 2016 election to more than 29,000 in early 2020 (pre-COVID). But, as Joe Biden ends his term, the Dow has crossed 44,000, a spectacular 14,000 point rise during his four years. And the DOW is the laggard index with the NAZ up 32 percent and the S&P up 28, the second year of double digit increases for both.

But Trump’s Day One agenda of tariffs, massive deportations and cuts in federal discretionary spending could have significant costs in terms of economic disruption and inflation. Trump, himself, finally admitted that his program could cause prices to rise. In his Sunday, December 8, Meet the Press interview, when asked about possible high consumer prices from his trade penalties, said, “I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow.”

Although corporate leadership, especially in the financial markets, see mostly positive results from Trumps’ agenda, the construction, agriculture, and hospitality industry have all predicted significant impact on their costs from mass deportations of undocumented workers. And most economists still predict a bad effect from more tariffs and the possible trade war they initiate.

The latest consumer price index report is up (2.7%) confirming inflation is not yet tamed and the Federal Reserve faces difficult decisions on keeping the current rate or continuing to lower it. The American economy is entering a volatile 100 days as Trump launches his administration.

RELATED:
Bull Market Continues to Run Feb 29, 2024
Waiting for the Federal Reserve May 21, 2024

There Will Be Blood

First day of Legistlative Session 2023 | Photo: Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun

The headlines tell the story, “There Will Be Blood,” Senator Jeff Bridges, chair of the JBC is quoted in Denver Axios in a report of the state budget with a $1 billion gap and draconian cuts expected. Denver just passed a restrained budget without their usual amendments for add-ons from City Council.

• State and local governments cut 2025 budgets. Colorado budget writers warn “There will be blood”. (Axios 12-2-24) “Denver Mayor Johnston unveils slim spending plan for city”. (Axios 9-12-24)

This restraint is not a surprise. Recent reports highlight factors contributing to Colorado’s and the Denver metro area’s new fiscal reality:

• Population growth slowed dramatically since 2020. “Coloradans are making fewer babies and migration can’t be counted on to fill the gap”. (Denver Post 11-18-24)
• Metro area and state sales tax revenue stopped growing in 2023 and is now below last year - “Sales tax recession”. (Ciruli Buzz 11-14-24) This is within the context of a myriad of recent local government tax and wage rate increases. ”Is Johnston’s tax in trouble?” (Ciruli Buzz 9-12-24)
• Jobs growth in Colorado slowed in 2024. “Colorado’s job picture weaker than previously known.” (Axios 8-22-24)
• Federal dollars from COVID relief have ended and the Trump administration promises a new austerity and even cuts. End of federal COVID money means shortfalls for states and schools. (Governing 2-2-24)

Persons and groups planning new taxes and expenditures in 2025 will have a difficult environment.

Democrats’ Missteps Move Public Opinion Against Immigration

Ellis Island Immigrants | Photos: NYC Public Library

The White House and much of the Democratic Party establishment support of a chaotic and inadequate border policy since 2021 helped lead to a flood of migrants, which was not firmly addressed until too late in 2024.

Not only did the White House gridlock provide the top issue Donald Trump used for his political recovery and final campaign, but new polls show public opinion, including among Democrats, has moved firmly against immigration. A sad legacy for Joe Biden and the Open Border, human rights advocates who captured a policy for their clients and ignored the political cost.

The latest Gallup poll captures the massive shift in political opinion which started in 2022. In 1920 and 21, opinion was closely divided across increasing, decreasing, or keeping the same level of immigration. “In your view, should immigration be kept at its present level, increased or decreased?” The public is now more than 3 to 1 in favor of decreased immigration above increased. The 55 percent majority that want immigration reduced is the highest since 2001.

The change is impacting all voters, with 88 percent of Republicans for a decrease (up 15% from 2023), independents now 50 percent for a decrease (up 11% since last year) and 28 percent of Democrats (up 10 percent from 2023).

It provides the political leverage for the incoming Trump Administration to seriously advocate a near shutdown of immigration, massive deportation (potentially millions) and 25 percent tariffs.