Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation

Data: Floyd Ciruli, Ciruli Associates; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

John Frank, co-author of Axios Denver’s online newsletter, wrote up my recent presentation to Denver metro mayors. Some of his observations:

Population Growth

• Population growth is flat
• Job growth is slowing
• Sales tax collections are falling
• Real estate values are steady

Why does this matter?

• Welcome to “the new era of austerity” in Colorado as described to metro mayors recently by pollster Floyd Ciruli.
• The stalled economic pictures comes as costs continue to escalate and federal dollars are vanishing.

Ciruli’s Comments

• “The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation and cost of living.”

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Independents Dominate National and Colorado Political Identity

State Dept./Doug Thompson

One of the big political stories out of the last decade of Colorado politics has been that the surge of new registered voters are now as likely to register Unaffiliated (49%) as either Democrat (26%) or Republican (23%). The diminished Democratic Party is slightly ahead of Republicans, who were the largest registered group in the beginning of the century. Independents have more than doubled from 30 percent in 2000, mostly since 2010.

The shift in political identity tracks the changes in America as reported by the Gallup poll. Independents are now 43 percent of Americans’ party preference and Democrats and Republicans are tied at 38 percent each. Independent identification jumped 8 points since 2008.

Trade War, Deportations and Funding Freeze

Musk, his son, and Trump in the Oval Office
Photo: Eric Lee / The New York Times

As of January 31, 2025, ten days into the new administration, President Donald Trump began with a 49 percent approval (9 national polls in RCP, 11 in 538) and a 44,544 DOW.

The first weekend, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as immigrant raids and deportations started. He immediately suspended Canada and Mexico’s tariffs for negotiations.

The second week saw a freeze of federal funding for grant programs, forced buyout of federal employees, the end of USAID, the rumored end of the Department of Education and a White House musing on a Riviera in Gaza.

Is there an executive order that Americans won’t tolerate? Congress is mostly silent and the courts are cumbersome and slow. It is still early, but reaction to the looming trade war, deportations, and massive budget cuts may begin to show up in public opinion and economic data.

Will the guardrails (see below) begin to restrain the “shock and awe,” channel its direction or even stop it? Or is the road ahead clear and fast?

Ciruli Interviews Secretaries of State Kerry and Albright

Ciruli, Kerry and Albright, 2018

In 2018, Mr. Ciruli interviewed Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeline Albright at DU’s Korbel School annual dinner. In attendance were former Colorado U.S. Senators Gary Hart and Hank Brown and current Senator, Michael Bennet.

Mr. Ciruli taught public opinion and policy at the University of Denver and the University of Colorado in Denver. He was a Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs. He was the founding Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies.

Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C., and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli was vice-chair of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.

Will Republicans Lose The House?

Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

History shows the 2026 mid-term should punish President Trump and Republicans, at least costing them their 5-seat majority in the House. In 2018, as Trump focused on caravans in Mexico and Democrats abortion, the first two years of chaos saw a 41-seat loss and brought Trump’s nemesis, Nancy Pelosi, to the speakership. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had similar experiences.

Will Trump be different in the 2026 mid-terms? The following reflects a dialogue with Denver Metro Mayors Caucus at their annual retreat:

• Trump has been here before and realizes the danger of 2026. Since the election tends to be a referendum on Presidential performance, he could adjust the pace and volume of disruption.
• Anticipating the controversial aspect of his agenda, Trump picked cabinet officers who are both loyal and proven communicators, especially on Fox News and alternative venues. All the disruption will be better defended than in the first term.
• The “shock and awe” and “Flood the Zone” strategies have fragmented and muted most opposition. The Democratic counter attack has yet to gain traction.
• Democrats are still struggling with what happened. In 2016, a close election looked like an anomaly and Trump’s first two years of chaos was great campaign material. But his 2024 win, while historically close, left no doubt he had made inroads into the Democratic coalition and was dominating the top issues of economy, immigration and cultural overreach.

But it is very early, and Trump’s policies are highly disruptive. His approval, the market, living cost, and unemployment could move in a negative direction.

Colorado Enters a New Era of Austerity

On a snowy January morning, more than thirty Denver metro mayors were presented a darker, more challenging vision of Colorado’s next few years. Pollster Floyd Ciruli reported that the boom in population and economic activity generated from 2010 to 2020 came to an abrupt halt in the pandemic. Colorado is now entering a more difficult environment where local government will have less sales tax revenues and face escalating costs just as federal funds are diminishing.

Ciruli shared these main points:

• Colorado is entering a new era following the booming 2010 decade. This isn’t a one or two year shift.
• Population that went up nearly 15 percent (744,000) from 2010 to 2020 and added a new Congressional seat has now slowed to a trickle in the metro area. The inflow of one recent new group of residents, migrants, will end completely.
• Job growth in Colorado is slowing and unemployment is climbing.
• Sales tax which is the main source of revenue for cities has been flat in the metro region for two years (see chart below).
• The contraction of tax revenue is happening just as cities face increased costs due to general inflation and spikes in the costs of labor. Cities and the state are struggling to balance their books.
• COVID relief dollars have ended and federal funding is entering a period of austerity.

The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation, and the cost of living.

Five Guardrails Around Trump

Trump speaking at the Presidential Inauguration | Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Post-election analysts give President Donald Trump’s advantage on the economy the most credit for his win. It was largely based on a nostalgia, and for new voters his reputation as having produced a good economy during his first term.

But there was considerable amnesia about the first term’s chaos even as Democrats spent most of their campaign efforts targeted at Trump’s misbehavior, i.e., Jan. 6, impeachments, convictions, indictments, etc. As the administration starts, will chaos come back into view?

President Trump’s win was narrow but he is governing as if it is a mandate, using executive orders and broad emergency decrees. However, there are guardrails on his behavior. His approval rating of 47 percent is high for Trump but could turn down in the first 100 days. Most observers see a burst of inflation due to the disruption of tariffs, and mass deportation. If an economic slowdown begins, unemployment will go up from record low of 4.1 percent and the market could drop after a year-end 23 percent return. Finally, Republicans only have a 4 vote House majority to move legislation.

Although political and legal guardrails may be less potent today, the Five Guardrails using recognized political and economic data will start to measure the success and blowback from “shock and awe.”