Race Tight. Harris Now Behind.

Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. Photo by John Moore | Getty Images

In a last snapshot before election day, Kamala Harris lost the lead (October 26, 2024) she held since early September in popular vote and is now behind by a fraction in most of the battleground states to Donald Trump. If the RCP aggregate of polls is accurate, she could lose both the popular and electoral vote to Trump. Other aggregators, such as 538 have Harris up one or two points. And most observers point out, she could win, depending on many factors, especially turnout and late deciders.

I will be making several presentations as to what caused the shift, when will the election be decided and what’s next for American politics and policy.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

Fox News Interview with Harris – KOA Morning Show

Bret Baier and Kamala Harris. Photo: Fox News

My comments with Marty and Jeana after the Fox News interview with Kamala Harris conducted by Bret Baier (October 12, 2024).

I pointed out most post-interview news stories featured the word “contentious” prominently. It was more like a debate, with Baier asking the most aggressive RNC-type questions. For example, a significant amount of time was spent on immigration, with frequent interruptions as Harris spoke. For Baier, the audience of one was Donald Trump, who criticized Fox News for even allowing an interview.

It is unlikely to have much effect on the election outcome but she was praised by Democrats and some media for having gone into a hostile forum and attacked Donald Trump repeatedly.

The audience is largely Republican and some Democrats, especially men, a group she has tried to win over but not shown much quantifiable result. Her message was Trump is unfit to be president and people who worked with him say so.

Is Colorado’s Direct Democracy Working?

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs hosted a panel of media and political experts to examine Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produce a Torrent of Proposals. Participants (in person and online) joined the panel with extensive questions and discussion.

The panel, moderated by pollster and Senior Fellow Floyd Ciruli, recalled the appeal of direct democracy to voters who have historically believed there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But today, polls record many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, in particular the election reform measures, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

The panelists pointed out a number of difficulties with direct democracy. Denver City Councilman Kevin Flynn and State Legislative Economist Greg Sobetski, related their knowledge of how government-elected officials and staff try to improve the initiative process. The media panelists, Denver Post opinion columnist Krista Kafer and reporter Seth Klamann, pointed out the background story of initiatives. Kafer and Flynn, in particular, were critical of the decisions being forced on a public that often hears “just slogans.”

The panelists were: Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
Krista Kafer, opinion columnist The Denver Post
Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, pollster, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website
for more information on the November 8 First Friday Breakfast:
What Happened and What Lies Ahead
panel here

READ:
CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year Oct. 3, 2024